The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread II

[Agent Orange]

The Dark Knight was banned in China too because of the Lau/extradition stuff.

 

[Vader815]

I imagine all the stuff with revolution can't have played well, either.

-Vader

 

[AnneFan]

This is bad news for the Chinese fans.

Imagine never getting to see the movie if you didn't leave the country.

 

[Metropolis_Man]

This is bad news for the Chinese fans.

Imagine never getting to see the movie if you didn't leave the country.

It hurts my heart to think about this. Forget the money loosing box office money/numbers, these people don't even get the chance to see the film in all its glory.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

This is bad news for the Chinese fans.

Imagine never getting to see the movie if you didn't leave the country.

Um, do you know how easy it is to bootleg Hollywood films over there? I think TDK once held the record for the most pirated film of all time there.

 

[Fenrir]

I've been trying to find a proper source for this news about TDKR not getting a Chinese theatrical release and still haven't found any. Where did this information come from?

 

[AnneFan]

Um, do you know how easy it is to bootleg Hollywood films over there? I think TDK once held the record for the most pirated film of all time there.

Maybe so but I wouldn't want to get caught over there doing bad stuff, lol.

 

[Bruce Malone]

^^^

They pretty much encourage bootlegging there.

Besides this is just one little example of the restrictions the chinese government puts on its people.

 

[joker1524]

so i guess this film can be lucky now to make a billion....that news about china just sucks

 

[protoctista]

Seems people have got jittery now that The Avengers hit #3 all time gross.

My advice is, don't lose your sense of perspective.

Of course the Avengers was always going to make a hell of a lot of money - but iit has no effect on the Dark Knight Rises - which will have the same prediction we could have figured out this time 6 months ago.


The first film was so successful that this film has guaranteed base figures of about $350 million domestic and $500 million overseas. That's most of the way to a billion that is guaranteed come hell or high water. Remember that in addition to smashing all the box office records 4 years ago, receiving INSANE critical adoration, impacting the very conception of cinema in the most mainstream channels, and having a strong lasting legacy (there's not been a backlash against it at all) - the film also broke DVD sales records ($158.74 million in its first week) - and has extraordinary high penetration in Latin America, Europe, and the Australasian sub-continent. TDK is 6th on the all time DVD chart - with only one release, whereas most of the top chart have 4 or 5 (see here). It's a cultural icon.

Remember that Inception, which sold on the basis of its quality alone and the legacy of the Dark Knight's director - took almost exactly the base figure I suggested above.

You can take a billion dollars to the bank.


Now what other factors would you need to drive sales of this film?

1. Aggressive, smart marketing and cultural saturation
2. Lack of competition around the opening release and following weeks
3. External events which make the movie something to talk about
4. Critical adoration and 'buzz'
5. High quality, and significant word of mouth


1. Expect to see The Dark Knight Rises step into gear from here on in. People who have suggested that Warner Bros haven't been on the ball with this one are as wrong as those people who seem to suggest that they don't need to market the film because of the success of The Dark Knight. Warner Bros aren't going to miss this opportunity. They've been smart enough not to blow their marketing whilst The Avengers was in theatres. Now's the time for them to make their play, and hit it hard. They want to 'peak' excitement just after The Amazing Spider-Man has entered theatres. Spiderman is a good comparison. The marketing for that movie has really shot its load - with lots of very complete trailers quite far out from the movie. I think that they've missed the 'peak' of excitement for this film, whereas Rises still has that card to play.

2. This is the big one. The next significant tent-pole movies in the summer is Bourne Legacy and Total Recall - a whole two weeks later. I think this is similar to Avengers competing with MIB3 and Dark Shadows - but with a whole 2 weeks gap. I expect the Dark Knight Rises to have legs well past Bourne and Total Recall - which gives it the entire month of August to take in cinema-goers.

3. We can't predict these, and admittedly this is where Rises falters compared to The Dark Knight. We're talking about news events that anyone might have an interest in, and which connect to the film in some way. Definitely haven't had anything of this sort yet.

4. Count on it.

5. Ditto



If I was a gambling man, I'd say that the Dark Knight Rises will hit $1.2 billion or more at the box office. Remember that it doesn't have the 3D bump, so if it hits those figures its far more impressive than The Avengers. It has the potential to do far greater though - if the stars align. There is nothing mechanical about these things, and we should remember that The Dark Knight was a 'perfect storm' in many ways.

So:

Guaranteed to take: $1billion

Conservative estimate: $1.25 billion

I think it will take: $1.45 billion

 

[Juicy J]

I'm no box office analyst nor do I pretend to know about how these sort of things work, but here's my two cents:
This movie will make heaps and heaps of cash, no doubt, but I don't think it will beat the Avengers.
Everything you said above about how huge TDK was is true, but one could argue that the Avengers has already achieved that level of acclaim this year. That movie broke - I'm sorry, shattered - several previously held records and showed what a comic book would look like on screen. It was a perfectly-crafted, fun blockbuster that showed what the genre can do.
I think TDKR, while obviously going to make bank, won't be able to have quite that impact. The biggest thing I think going against it right now is that Batman, while huge in America, doesn't have all to impressive numbers worldwide. The Avengers has almost doubled the foreign gross of TDK, and the worldwide gross is what's going to make or break a film. Not to mention it won't have the 3D bump and, from what I'm hearing, won't even be released in China, which (correct me if I'm wrong) means that 1/6th of the world won't be able to legally see this movie.
I'm obviously not ruling it out, as anything is possible with this genre, but at this point I say TDKR has the odds stacked against it.

 

[protoctista]

No offense buddy, but gimme a break! Again, let's get some perspective.

Avengers has taken about $84m in China - or 5% of its worldwide box office. Transformers 3 took $170m - 15%

I'm not sure what you mean by 'acclaim' - but critically The Avengers and The Dark Knight have both been received as positively as it gets (equal ratings on rotten-tomatoes/slightly favouring Dark Knight) - therefore its a moot point to compare them on that point. So I don't really know what you mean by "impact" because all you're talking about is an ideal about what a comic book movie "can be". We're not talking about cultural resonance, we're talking about money!

You're right that The Dark Knight is skewered towards a domestic (US) audience. Percentage-wise, Avengers and Dark Knight more than invert each other's percentages for domestic vs foreign receipts - from 55/45 (TDK) to 40/60 (TA).

Domestic:
If we take into account simple inflation, The Dark Knight took the same amount as The Avengers domestically. (If we take into account 3D prices, considerably more people went to see TDK). The Dark Knight has also had 4 years of DVD market saturation for whoever didn't see it the first time - this is the main reason why sequels do so much better than their predecessors.

That means that, if we're comparing them, we would be foolish to not expect Rises to take as much at the box office as The Avengers did, domestically.

Let's take that to be about $570 - 600m.

Foreign:
Which means that, for my previous conservative estimation to hold any water, I'm expecting The Dark Knight to increase its percentage of foreign takings from 46.8% to about 53.2% - or take $200 million more outside of the US than it did in 2008.

With inflation, that target is lowered to $180m more than they took in 2008.

Can you see where this is going? I can.

If Warner Bros have any sense, and I know they do, they'll realise that they're looking at a saturated domestic market (by which I mean they've got as much sales as they could hope for locked in already), and a massive growth area abroad. Familiar markets like the UK, Canada and France won't be able to see more than about 10-15% increase in sales without breaking all-time records - so they'll be looking at emerging box offices abroad.

Prediction: The marketing bomb-shell they've been holding onto prior to The Avengers will, over the next few weeks, focus on significant foreign markets such as Taiwan, Australia, Italy, the UK, Russia, Japan, etc. Remember, Batman Begins took half what the Dark Knight did internationally, so it isn't out outrageous to expect a similar sequel-multiplier this time round abroad. They have to go out there and get it though.



To conclude:

I really can't see any way this movie could make less than $1.25 billion. And, like I said, if all the cards are played right, it will come very close to Avengers - and without 3D to help it get there.

 

[Polaris23]

My friend believes Spiderman is going to beat TDKR at the box office XD

 

[BatLobster]

$1.25 billion seems completely reasonable to me. Without 3D that would be a major accomplishment. I think when it's all said and done, TDKR will sell more tickets than any film this year.

 

[Liam_H]

In International markets there's certainly a possibility.

 

[Rocketman]

I've said it several times, but to me, the amount of money made means nothing.
The number of tickets sold means everything.

Which means:

- Avengers will make more money.
- TDKR will sell more tickets.

It's really a "Tickets vs. 3D" game.
And which is more important to us, the fact that it made a zillion dollars, or the fact that everyone and their aunt saw this movie and launched it into legendary, iconic status? A pop culture phenomenon, just like The Dark Knight?

The Avengers wasn't a pop culture phenomenon. It was a movie that made a crap-load of cash, and it made it fast and easy. I know that nobody agrees with this, but time will be the deciding factor. That movie is already yesterday's news. Out with the old, in with the new.

You know a movie is something special when the "new" STAYS "new" for a long time, when everything that comes after it is somehow inferior to it. TDK and Inception did that to me.

3D, to me, is a cheap, cop-out way to get your movie to a billion. ANY MOVIE CAN MAKE A BILLION NOW. Alice In Wonderland made waaay more than it should've. I'm more impressed when a movie contributes to the zeitgeist, defines an era, has you talking for years about social issues. The Avengers isn't doing that... The Dark Knight did. You're not looking at Hulk and Thor and seeing any debates about Bush, 9/11, and the Patriot Act. You don't see the cinematographer of The Avengers winning the Oscar for best cinematography, for shooting wild action that's rarely been conceived with rotating hallways within a rolling van. TDKR in the "artistic integrity" department has this in the bag based on the trailers alone.

I see total strangers on sidewalks wearing TDKR shirts, of all ages. They know it's coming. I know it's coming. But does everyone else? I almost prefer they didn't, because when it hits, everyone's going to be ****ing bricks.

TDKR will prove to us an important point: If the movie's amazing, people will flock to it, regardless of gimmicks. And if it's something truly memorable, we'll know.

I'm annoying at this point, but I'll drive the point home one last time:
[BLACKOUT]It's the movie of the decade. Bank on it. [/BLACKOUT]

 

[Deserana]

Is there a way to find out how many tickets TDKR would have sold? I also think how quickly the tickets sell out tomorrow will give a good indication of how well it will do.

 

[Rocketman]

Is there a way to find out how many tickets TDKR would have sold? I also think how quickly the tickets sell out tomorrow will give a good indication of how well it will do.

Tomorrow is going to be a crazy day, especially if the movie makes $200 million before it's even released, lol.

I'm buying 6 tickets alone. I'm just one person. Imagine a million.

 

[Liam_H]

Is there a way to find out how many tickets TDKR would have sold? I also think how quickly the tickets sell out tomorrow will give a good indication of how well it will do.

Don't you mean TDK? We don't know how many tickets TDKR will sell yet.

 

[Deserana]

Don't you mean TDK? We don't know how many tickets TDKR will sell yet.

Ah yes thats what I meant.

 

[Liam_H]

Ah yes thats what I meant.

Based on BOM ~74 million tickets.

 

[Figs]

Jesus...sounds like someone is a bit jealous and worried up there.

 

[Travesty]

 

[Nevincer]

This.

 

[Rocketman]

Why do you people have to be such *****ebags on a site dedicated to being a fan of this stuff? If you don't like it, go some place else that doesn't have to do with Super-Hero-Hype. HYPE for SUPERHEROES. That's the whole point. I'm seriously considering leaving after this movie comes out -- I'm sure it would be the perfect time anyway. I'll find a place where fans can actually be fans.

Also,