Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Box-Office Numbers

[TheVileOne]

That is a fantastic hold. I think this thing does 300+ domestic in Normal times. And it's coming off an inflated holiday weekend. Reminds me of when Black Panther dropped only 44% after coming off and inflated opening weekend.

I think Black Widow likely would've done much bigger as well, if the Premier Access numbers are any indication.

But considering the much better reviews and word of mouth for Shang-Chi, I wonder how much further it could've gone.

 

[JB33]

$2,466,295 Wednesday
-22% v Tuesday
-47% v last week
$152,612,024 domestic total

Good Wednesday drop. Hopefully Thursday is relatively flat, which bodes well for a strong 3rd weekend hold. My personal prediction for now is around $19M for the weekend.

 

[TheVileOne]

‘Shang-Chi’ Tops $150M But Highlights The Limits Of Diversity At The Box Office

So...anyone want to take this one?

 

[Pennywise]

So...anyone want to take this one?

I don’t get that title.

 

[JB33]

So...anyone want to take this one?

Is it more race bait, or is it talking about diversity of films? Either way I'm not giving it a click.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

Is it more race bait, or is it talking about diversity of films? Either way I'm not giving it a click.

Scott Mendelson is a perfect example of the clickbait writer consumed by identity politics. I read his columns fairly regularly, but he is obsessed with race, gender, sexual orientation, etc., to the point where I can barely get through them anymore. And regardless, I can't read this one because Forbes just put up a paywall.

 

[JB33]

Scott Mendelson is a perfect example of the clickbait writer consumed by identity politics. I read his columns fairly regularly, but he is obsessed with race, gender, sexual orientation, etc., to the point where I can barely get through them anymore. And regardless, I can't read this one because Forbes just put up a paywall.

Yeah I'm not surprised. That's the entire media now. Sports journalism. Entertainment media. The news. Everything. They know it gets clicks from both sides, those who are obsessed with identity politics and those like myself who get angry about everything being about identity politics lol. I've learned to just pay no attention and don't give them the clicks.

We're not the only ones though. Some celebrities are starting to break rank. Nicki Minja being one of them. She went on a whole rant about cancel culture.

 

[JB33]

Anyway, I'm reading a few very optimistic predictions for Shang-Chi's 3rd weekend. Some of them as much as $23M or $24M. As excited as I am about the success, it's depressing as a cinema and box office fan that it seems to come at the expense of midlevel and small films. While the predictions for SC are fantastic, the predictions for Cry Macho and CopShop are like 2-5 million.

The box office still has a looooong way to go and it starts with studios going back to theatrical exclusivity. Shang-Chi proves that.

 

[psylockolussus]

Even in pre pandemic times, those movies won't do big numbers. Also are those even getting a wide release?

 

[TheVileOne]

Is it more race bait, or is it talking about diversity of films? Either way I'm not giving it a click.

I don't even want to click it either based on that headline. That's a rage-baiting headline if I've ever seen one.

 

[InCali]

Anyway, I'm reading a few very optimistic predictions for Shang-Chi's 3rd weekend. Some of them as much as $23M or $24M. As excited as I am about the success, it's depressing as a cinema and box office fan that it seems to come at the expense of midlevel and small films. While the predictions for SC are fantastic, the predictions for Cry Macho and CopShop are like 2-5 million.

The box office still has a looooong way to go and it starts with studios going back to theatrical exclusivity. Shang-Chi proves that.

Yeah, I don't expect quite the drop off you get second weekend; esp with the 1st being a 4 day one.

The real question from Disney's perspective is whether they get more money from an exclusive release. Remember that all of the D+ money goes directly into the pocket of the mouse (at least I think it does) and, while it hurts the BO numbers, Disney might come out ahead. Having a lower BO might dent the brand long term and not be smart. I haven't given it a lot of thought, but am throwing it out there......

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So...anyone want to take this one?

It makes the utterly banal point that diversity doesn’t drive moviegoing. The vast majority of folks don’t go to movies because (for example), “oh boy, Asian representation!” or else Snake Eyes would have made more. And they aren’t going to see Shang Chi because Asians are in it, but because they want to see a Marvel superhero movie.

 

[JB33]

Even in pre pandemic times, those movies won't do big numbers. Also are those even getting a wide release?

They would have done more than 2 to 5 million on opening weekend. And yes, both are releasing wide, both in 3,000+ theatres. Travesty.

 

[Rice Eater]

I think Black Widow likely would've done much bigger as well, if the Premier Access numbers are any indication.

But considering the much better reviews and word of mouth for Shang-Chi, I wonder how much further it could've gone.

I think in normal times without premier access Black Widow would have opened with a bigger lead over Shang Chi. But Shang Chi comes back to make it close in the end.

I don't think either makes it to 300 million in normal times, but get somewhat close. Like I think BW opens at 110 million and ends its run at 280 while Shang Chi opens at 90 and ends at 270.

It makes the utterly banal point that diversity doesn’t drive moviegoing. The vast majority of folks don’t go to movies because (for example), “oh boy, Asian representation!” or else Snake Eyes would have made more. And they aren’t going to see Shang Chi because Asians are in it, but because they want to see a Marvel superhero movie.

Well it also looks like the vast majority won't choose to not see a movie because of more diversity. So we should have more diversity because that can't be used as an excuse anymore for why a movie doesn't do well at the box office, right?

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[Pennywise]

 

[JB33]

It'll be well above that, unless the Friday and Saturday bumps are soft. Thursday INCREASED from Wednesday ($2,581,531, +4.7%), which is a very good sign! Other films increased too. I don't really know why. Perhaps the weak offerings 2 weekends in a row. I dunno....

I could see something roughly like this for the 3rd weekend:

Friday: $6.2M (+140%)
Saturday: $9.9M (+60%)
Sunday: $6.9M (-30%)
Weekend: $23M

I didn't expect it to go that high but I also didn't expect that Thursday number. Again, the bumps could be soft and it could still land around $19M. Who knows? Don't see it going any lower than that though.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

It makes the utterly banal point that diversity doesn’t drive moviegoing. The vast majority of folks don’t go to movies because (for example), “oh boy, Asian representation!” or else Snake Eyes would have made more. And they aren’t going to see Shang Chi because Asians are in it, but because they want to see a Marvel superhero movie.

Shockingly for the likes of Scott Mendelson, most people don't see a movie simply because of the race, gender, etc. of the cast and crew. If they did, Meteor Man would have been as successful at the box office as Black Panther.

 

[psylockolussus]

They would have done more than 2 to 5 million on opening weekend. And yes, both are releasing wide, both in 3,000+ theatres. Travesty.

I never heard those films untilyou mentioned them.

 

[Mysteryman]

Anyway, I'm reading a few very optimistic predictions for Shang-Chi's 3rd weekend. Some of them as much as $23M or $24M. As excited as I am about the success, it's depressing as a cinema and box office fan that it seems to come at the expense of midlevel and small films. While the predictions for SC are fantastic, the predictions for Cry Macho and CopShop are like 2-5 million.

The box office still has a looooong way to go and it starts with studios going back to theatrical exclusivity. Shang-Chi proves that.

Not Me.
CRUSH THE COMPETITITIION!
Okay.
I will go easier on them.
Crush(ish)!

 

[metaphysician]

Shockingly for the likes of Scott Mendelson, most people don't see a movie simply because of the race, gender, etc. of the cast and crew. If they did, Meteor Man would have been as successful at the box office as Black Panther.

Some people don't like the nuanced answer: representation is *a* factor, that has an effect but not an infinite one. Good representation can help a good movie do better, but it won't save a bad movie. Bad representation ( of either "this movie is super white" or "this movie if flagrantly tokenist and pandering" ), in turn, can make a bad movie worse, but a good movie may overcome it. And it all operates on a spectrum, with something either being a better or worse part of a better or worse movie, rather than some binary switch.

 

[Mysteryman]

Shockingly for the likes of Scott Mendelson, most people don't see a movie simply because of the race, gender, etc. of the cast and crew. If they did, Meteor Man would have been as successful at the box office as Black Panther.

I LOVE METEOR MAN!

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[InCali]

I LOVE METEOR MAN!

And Robert Townsend. I haven't watched it in ages, but I loved Hollywood Shuffle when it came out.

 

[JB33]

$5.8M for Shang-Chi on Friday. So yeah, a softer Friday jump than you'd normally expect because of the Thursday number. Hopefully the weekend still clears $20M.