Box Office Thread

[psylockolussus]

Is this going to hit the $1 billion mark like the first one, especially if its released in China?

I think in North America, it wouldn't outgross the first film. Worldwide, it needs China to outgross the first film. I think this is going to perform similarly to Thor: Love and Thunder.

 

[Iceman]

Getting close to the first film will be very difficult and it doesn’t need to achieve that to be a success. Is China confirmed for this?

 

[psylockolussus]

Getting close to the first film will be very difficult and it doesn’t need to achieve that to be a success. Is China confirmed for this?

Quantumania was released in China so I don't see why this won't be released there.

This ain't crossing a billion, as I think we are going to see a boX office sophomore slump because the first one did so well but who knows.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

After that teaser I feel pretty good about $800 million as an over/under. I’ll take the over.

 

[psylockolussus]

Captain Marvel
426 million North America
1.12 billion worldwide

Damn, looking at those numbers, its crazy how Captain Marvel got those numbers 4 years ago. I feel like $700 million worldwide and $300 million NA are going to be a struggle, considering how Quantumania performed and how Volume 3 opened. Is there a possibility that Dune 2 suddenly performs massive at the boX office that it would destroy Marvels' legs at the boX office? I want a trilogy for Captain Marvel.

 

[psylockolussus]

After that teaser I feel pretty good about $800 million as an over/under. I’ll take the over.

Given how strong the legs for Gotg Vol. 3 are, I feel a bit more optimistic about its boX office potential.

So maybe $800 million is possible.

 

[Zyraquis]

If Antman 3 is any indication, around a 40% off from previous outing, so it might get $600m. If it’s well received, maybe $800m is ceiling.

 

[Sithborg]

I feel it will comfortable perform better than GOTG.

 

[psylockolussus]

No Dune should help this film. Also the actors might be able to promote this if the actor's strike is resolved in a few weeks.

Looking at November 2023. This and Hunger Games have November for themselves.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Presales during the first two days have been very weak. I've seen OW projections in the 50-70M range.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS - Boxoffice

2023's holiday movie season gets its first tentpole release on November 10 with the 33rd chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Marvels, hitting the big screen.

www.boxofficepro.com

Opening Weekend Range: $50M-$75M
Domestic Total Range: $121M-$189M

It's a long-range forecast so things can obviously change but it's not encouraging.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[emc5466]

Grace Randolph says Marvel executives are very worried about this movie because it’s tracking very similarly to The Flash’s box office.

The Flash was a box office disaster.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

This film has a budget of 215M. And according to Deadline last year's Marvel movies had marketing budgets of 150M, 160M and 140M. So let's say that The Marvels has a marketing budget of 150M. This means that the movie needs to make around 730M worldwide to cover its production+marketing cost. Right now it doesn't look likely.

 

[Zyraquis]

It is tracking below $300m. It will be a massive loss if the projection doesnt trend up, and I dont see any reason it will.

 

[psylockolussus]

Less than $200 million in North America sounds alarming...

Its only the 2nd solo film for Captain Marvel, and it includes the characters from those Disney+ shows (those 2 shows weren't even terrible).

 

[HammerDown]

50-75M openning weekend!? Christ…
These projections are rough.

 

[Iceman]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS - Boxoffice

2023's holiday movie season gets its first tentpole release on November 10 with the 33rd chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Marvels, hitting the big screen.

www.boxofficepro.com

Opening Weekend Range: $50M-$75M
Domestic Total Range: $121M-$189M

It's a long-range forecast so things can obviously change but it's not encouraging.

That's terrible compared to the first film.

 

[Iceman]

This film has a budget of 215M. And according to Deadline last year's Marvel movies had marketing budgets of 150M, 160M and 140M. So let's say that The Marvels has a marketing budget of 150M. This means that the movie needs to make around 730M worldwide to cover its production+marketing cost. Right now it doesn't look likely.

Seems like bugdets/costs are going up and box office numbers down. Not a great combination.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

And here are long range forecasts by BoxofficePro and actual numbers of some recent MCU films (and the first Captain Marvel).

As you can see, BoxOfficePro has been pretty accurate with their forecasts so far.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

That's terrible compared to the first film.

If the current numbers hold then I think it could end up as the second worst drop-off for a sequel to a billion dollar film (unless Aquaman does even worse). Right now the record holder is Alice Through the Looking Glass.

Alice in Wonderland

Domestic Box Office	$334,191,110
International Box Office	$691,300,000
Worldwide Box Office	$1,025,491,110

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Domestic Box Office	$77,042,381
International Box Office	$199,885,731
Worldwide Box Office	$276,928,112

77% drop-off domestically and 73% drop-off worldwide.

 

[Iceman]

And here are long range forecasts by BoxofficePro and actual numbers of some recent MCU films (and the first Captain Marvel).

As you can see, BoxOfficePro has been pretty accurate with their forecasts so far.

That's pretty grim reading.

That total forecast number would look more at home with the numbers in the first column.

 

[Iceman]

If the current numbers hold then I think it could end up as the second worst drop-off for a sequel to a billion dollar film (unless Aquaman does even worse). Right now the record holder is Alice Through the Looking Glass.

Alice in Wonderland

Domestic Box Office	$334,191,110
International Box Office	$691,300,000
Worldwide Box Office	$1,025,491,110

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Domestic Box Office	$77,042,381
International Box Office	$199,885,731
Worldwide Box Office	$276,928,112

77% drop-off domestically and 73% drop-off worldwide.

Those Alice numbers are crazy lol. The first film was the main beneficiary of the (mini) 3D boom coming straight after Avatar. Pretty soon after that people started realising that 3D outside of Avatar was a waste of time.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

That's pretty grim reading.

That total forecast number would look more at home with the numbers in the first column.

And none of the movies actually managed to hit the max total forecast number and Thor 4 & Ant-Man 3 missed the min total forecast number..

 

[Iceman]

And none of the movies actually managed to hit the max total forecast number and Thor 4 & Ant-Man 3 missed the min total forecast number..

So they've been slighlty optimistic in the past. Hopefully they've got more cautious since, otherwise it's even worse for Marvels.