Automation and Universal Basic Income (UBI)

[Midnyte_Sun]

Let's discuss the implications of automation in blue collar and some white collar jobs with the exponential rise in intelligence of machines.

Should Automation start eliminating and/or altering jobs such as (my own guess): food services, trucking, trains, planes, buses, taxis, retail, office/clerical, entertainment, construction, military, security/police, waste management, housekeeping, laundry, and even some medical (ie. sterile processing, medicine/biohazard deliveries, etc), many people will be left out of the workforce.

How should the United States & world governments, large corporations, and the civilian sector deal the potential large influx of the unemployed? Many proponents of automation signal the start of a trend of universal basic income for all citizens.

How should governments pay for this? What other government programs will have to be cut to pay for it? Do you feel your job could be at risk?

 

[Thundercrack85]

I think you'll see a new political ideology, populist and anti-automation.

As long as America is a democracy, they can always pass laws restricting automation. E.g. require a company to have jobs for humans.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I do sales, specifically telemarketing. I also do b2b and there is just no conceivable way for AI to take my job (yet). We are already seeing the rise of automation in factories across the country along with several other industries that are poised to be turned upside down. Take truck drivers for instance, that industry most likely won't be there in any recognizable way we see it today in 10 years.

Back to sales I know of rudimentary programs that do a damn good job of fronting some basic deals. The better programs have people trained to listen to more than one call and hit the appropriate responses. All that information is being gathered so they can build upon it later.

I'm for a UBI since we will need it. As Gates and Tesla have gone on record saying we are going to need to tax robots for these companies too. That opens it's own can of worms of what the definition of a robot is and how much can it be taxed. If you think about all the tax revenue that we will lose when we don't have humans paying those taxes it's staggering.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

I think you'll see a new political ideology, populist and anti-automation.

As long as America is a democracy, they can always pass laws restricting automation. E.g. require a company to have jobs for humans.

It won't take long for a company to easily make the argument that the automated machines as performing a task that were never intended for humans. In manufacturing specifically: More complicated tasks, more functions, for longer periods without rest. And therefore skirt any penalties because they will change the way manufacturing looks at production from the ground up.

They could literally make the factory grounds a safety hazard to employ people (other than trained mechanics) in working in those environments.

Don't underestimate the corporate world's strategy to maximize profit at any cost.

 

[jmc]

The only jobs in the future that won't be susceptible to automation will be anything creative. Society is going to have to decide very quickly about how we run ourselves in a world were machines are doing most of the heavy lifting. The reality is automation isn't going anywhere, no matter who's in charge, you can't force companies to hire people they don't need or prevent new technologies from being invented.

 

[hellified]

I think you'll see a new political ideology, populist and anti-automation.

As long as America is a democracy, they can always pass laws restricting automation. E.g. require a company to have jobs for humans.

that would never fly since companies and corporations have a stronger lobby than ordinary people. Also it would be the same argument as they have with regulatory laws today...people have a nasty habit of voting against their best interest...particularly conservatives.

 

[hellified]

The only jobs in the future that won't be susceptible to automation will be anything creative. Society is going to have to decide very quickly about how we run ourselves in a world were machines are doing most of the heavy lifting. The reality is automation isn't going anywhere, no matter who's in charge, you can't force companies to hire people they don't need or prevent new technologies from being invented.

but not everyone can be creative...

People keep saying its like horse and buggy to cars or the industrial revolution or the electronic revolution...this is different from that.

Past revolutions made major shifts in things but they actually CREATED jobs in and of themselves...The industrial revolution brought with it mass manufacturing which meant building factories and machines and hiring people to operate that stuff...in fact you had to hire people to make the material that was needed to make the factories and machines. People didn't need to acquire new skills as much as redirect the skills they had for a new function.

A guy that used to till the land with a team of mules and hoe is now sitting in a machine to do it but HE's still on the farm tilling the land. In the robot/AI age he's not even in the machine on the farm anymore..And the computers (programmed by someone else) knows how to farm as efficiently or better than he does because they don't need breaks and don't have to worry about injuries and work place hazards. So where does that leave him?

Well he'll just figure it out or someone will come up with new way...and if they don't then what??

Not everybody can code and not everybody WANTS to code. Technology is moving faster than its ever been....much faster than it was during the industrial revolution. The biggest difference is before machines were created to do more work but PEOPLE had to operate the machines...today machines are created to do more work and the machines can operate THEMSELVES.

So where does that leave people who can't make that pivot? And theres going to be MILLIONS of people who can't make that pivot.

This next leap in tech and cultural revolution MAY open up a way for national basic income....I mean people/cargo moving is some of the most basic labor jobs most people have or can get. Hell Uber showed that ANYONE can be a cab driver... and that also tends to be the job many immigrants get and if those jobs get replaced with AVs (automated vehicles) whats going to happen to those millions of people? What thing is on the horizon that can compensate for the lost labor??

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

Oh trust me, when autonomous driving becomes a thing. Uber and other companies will have fleets of taxis with no drivers. Uber might even allow the independent driver to use their own autonomous cars (maybe even fleets) while Uber makes a cut of the profit by allowing members to use their apps and services.

 

[jmc]

but not everyone can be creative...

People keep saying its like horse and buggy to cars or the industrial revolution or the electronic revolution...this is different from that.

Past revolutions made major shifts in things but they actually CREATED jobs in and of themselves...The industrial revolution brought with it mass manufacturing which meant building factories and machines and hiring people to operate that stuff...in fact you had to hire people to make the material that was needed to make the factories and machines. People didn't need to acquire new skills as much as redirect the skills they had for a new function.

A guy that used to till the land with a team of mules and hoe is now sitting in a machine to do it but HE's still on the farm tilling the land. In the robot/AI age he's not even in the machine on the farm anymore..And the computers (programmed by someone else) knows how to farm as efficiently or better than he does because they don't need breaks and don't have to worry about injuries and work place hazards. So where does that leave him?

Well he'll just figure it out or someone will come up with new way...and if they don't then what??

Not everybody can code and not everybody WANTS to code. Technology is moving faster than its ever been....much faster than it was during the industrial revolution. The biggest difference is before machines were created to do more work but PEOPLE had to operate the machines...today machines are created to do more work and the machines can operate THEMSELVES.

So where does that leave people who can't make that pivot? And theres going to be MILLIONS of people who can't make that pivot.

This next leap in tech and cultural revolution MAY open up a way for national basic income....I mean people/cargo moving is some of the most basic labor jobs most people have or can get. Hell Uber showed that ANYONE can be a cab driver... and that also tends to be the job many immigrants get and if those jobs get replaced with AVs (automated vehicles) whats going to happen to those millions of people? What thing is on the horizon that can compensate for the lost labor??

You are right, the reality is machines can do jobs far better than humans and do it more efficiently. Western society has to transition to a different form of economics in the coming decades. Basic living is definitely an option but it's going to need to be planned years in advance. The other option is to invest in new sciences and technologies to create jobs. Reeducation is another thing they'll have to consider. As you say millions of people will potentially be with out work, they'll all need to be retrained with new skill sets. It also might end up being a case of the working week being reduced from 5 days to 2 or 3 days. One thing is for certain, governments had better start thinking now. Those coal jobs, those mining jobs, those factory jobs, those traditional blue collar jobs aren't coming back. No amount of making home grown products is going to change the fact machine will still be doing the majority of the work.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

With automation, there will also be many new jobs that will come up, which includes technicians, technologists, and service engineers.

On top of that, new businesses will spring up to meet those demands, and new creative minds will come to center stage of this revolution.

From what I've read, many conservatives are okay with UBI so long as they completely disband Medicare and Social Security.

 

[summerteeth]

With automation, there will also be many new jobs that will come up, which includes technicians, technologists, and service engineers.

On top of that, new businesses will spring up to meet those demands, and new creative minds will come to center stage of this revolution.

From what I've read, many conservatives are okay with UBI so long as they completely disband Medicare and Social Security.

I mean Milton Friedman was in favor of a negative income tax (or minimum income) if it came with dismantling all the various welfare programs. His argument was that you spend all this money on these programs why not just give the money directly to the people that need it and they can spend it how they choose, perhaps to better themselves if they use it wisely. Republicans did take this idea, but didn't like that people could not work and still earn an income. This is why the earned income tax credit was created. It essentially is a minimum income for all working people. It was signed by Ford and expanded by Reagan.

 

[hellified]

there will always be people who will try to game the system no matter what it is. There IS welfare fraud but its a small pct and the vast majority people on it are working and NOT doing that.
UBI would the same thing...there are going to be people who will try to take advantage of it but the vast majority would use it to do positive things.

Even in old welfare consider this... wallstreet gets corporate welfare to the tune of millions and billions which means CEO thurston howell III gets a 20 billion dollar taxpayer funded bail out (of which he pays himself a bonus) yet not a peep from conservatives but if Laquita gets an extra 200 dollars in her welfare check conservatives lose their minds and wanna hit the streets with pitchforks and torches.

But here's the kicker...Laquita get her 200 bucks and runs down to walmart and best buy...putting that money directly back into the american economy.

Thurston howell III gets his 20 billion and pays minimal taxes then puts the rest in offshore accounts or spends it on property in europe THEN ships jobs out of the country for cheaper labor in china or mexico.

Laquita's 200 bucks gets

Thurston howell's 20 billion gets

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

well if you believe in a certain line of futurist thinking, right around the time automation gets to that mass of a level, you should also see the technological singularity. Depending on how that goes, there might not be many people left around to be unemployed.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

there will always be people who will try to game the system no matter what it is. There IS welfare fraud but its a small pct and the vast majority people on it are working and NOT doing that.
UBI would the same thing...there are going to be people who will try to take advantage of it but the vast majority would use it to do positive things.

Even in old welfare consider this... wallstreet gets corporate welfare to the tune of millions and billions which means CEO thurston howell III gets a 20 billion dollar taxpayer funded bail out (of which he pays himself a bonus) yet not a peep from conservatives but if Laquita gets an extra 200 dollars in her welfare check conservatives lose their minds and wanna hit the streets with pitchforks and torches.

But here's the kicker...Laquita get her 200 bucks and runs down to walmart and best buy...putting that money directly back into the american economy.

Thurston howell III gets his 20 billion and pays minimal taxes then puts the rest in offshore accounts or spends it on property in europe THEN ships jobs out of the country for cheaper labor in china or mexico.

Laquita's 200 bucks gets

Thurston howell's 20 billion gets

Well said.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

I mean Milton Friedman was in favor of a negative income tax (or minimum income) if it came with dismantling all the various welfare programs. His argument was that you spend all this money on these programs why not just give the money directly to the people that need it and they can spend it how they choose, perhaps to better themselves if they use it wisely. Republicans did take this idea, but didn't like that people could not work and still earn an income. This is why the earned income tax credit was created. It essentially is a minimum income for all working people. It was signed by Ford and expanded by Reagan.

Maybe this can lead to a bipartisan effort in the future? Who am I kidding though? It seems every year the two major parties become more polarized after every election.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

well if you believe in a certain line of futurist thinking, right around the time automation gets to that mass of a level, you should also see the technological singularity. Depending on how that goes, there might not be many people left around to be unemployed.

Well think about this. The less people working and with UBI, the possibility that more creativity will come about from it. Kind of like how farming helped establish the first civilizations. Maybe automation and UBI will help spur a cultural revolution (maybe also an evolution) of unimagined possibilities?

 

[dnno1]

Let's discuss the implications of automation in blue collar and some white collar jobs with the exponential rise in intelligence of machines.

Should Automation start eliminating and/or altering jobs such as (my own guess): food services, trucking, trains, planes, buses, taxis, retail, office/clerical, entertainment, construction, military, security/police, waste management, housekeeping, laundry, and even some medical (ie. sterile processing, medicine/biohazard deliveries, etc), many people will be left out of the workforce.

How should the United States & world governments, large corporations, and the civilian sector deal the potential large influx of the unemployed? Many proponents of automation signal the start of a trend of universal basic income for all citizens.

How should governments pay for this? What other government programs will have to be cut to pay for it? Do you feel your job could be at risk?

If you look at history, you can see that automation has only served to progress society as a whole. Yes, automation has displaced many job description, but for every job that was lost, many more opportunities have arisen. It us up to the work force to understand what these new opportunities are and make the transition to a new job or career. I remember when I first started working out of college, the word processor displaced the secretarial pool, but it created the position of Word Processor. With the advance of the personal computer, that job description went away, but many other opportunities opened up for people to start their own business at home. I wouldn't be afraid of automation. I would rather want to be aware of it and the opportunities that will offshoot from it.

 

[hellified]

If you look at history, you can see that automation has only served to progress society as a whole. Yes, automation has displaced many job description, but for every job that was lost, many more opportunities have arisen. It us up to the work force to understand what these new opportunities are and make the transition to a new job or career. I remember when I first started working out of college, the word processor displaced the secretarial pool, but it created the position of Word Processor. With the advance of the personal computer, that job description went away, but many other opportunities opened up for people to start their own business at home. I wouldn't be afraid of automation. I would rather want to be aware of it and the opportunities that will offshoot from it.

that example isnt exactly accurate...a person who learned to type 80 words a minute on a selectric typewriter could still type 80 words a minutes on a desktop computer. The secretaries job of typing and filing paperwork was still there just in a different form.

but with the advancement of AI and speech recognition you really don't need a secretary to do letters or collate papers and information.

thats why I said this tech jump is not like the others. From typewriters to PCs meant where you had 20 secretaries you only need 10 or 15...but from PCs to AI (Seri, Cortana etc) you go from 10 people to 0.

 

[auditor]

I like to think about this.

Anything over 20 or 30 hours a week is overtime. And anything over 40 weeks a year is also overtime. Spread the work out.

BUT is funded through socialism. The government could sell stuff for money or the government could buy stocks and have part ownership of private corporations making a profit that is divided among our citizens.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

If you look at history, you can see that automation has only served to progress society as a whole. Yes, automation has displaced many job description, but for every job that was lost, many more opportunities have arisen. It us up to the work force to understand what these new opportunities are and make the transition to a new job or career. I remember when I first started working out of college, the word processor displaced the secretarial pool, but it created the position of Word Processor. With the advance of the personal computer, that job description went away, but many other opportunities opened up for people to start their own business at home. I wouldn't be afraid of automation. I would rather want to be aware of it and the opportunities that will offshoot from it.

But where will the jobs go for people without advanced training or skillsets? Some blue collar jobs, and jobs where a considerable degree is not required will continue to shrink with automation.

Let's look at truck and train transportation which make up about 3.5 Million American jobs. An automated fleet of trucks could theoretically, eliminate trucking careers (with a mean average salary of +/- $40,000K a year and as high as $70K+ a year). Instead, many workers who work for those companies become repairmen, logistics management, and maybe help in hauling/loading. All those jobs, (except for maybe management), will pay considerably less then what a person would make as a trucker and they will employ less. The company saves a lot of money, but the American workforce will lose a substantial amount of wealth and jobs.

 

[uadialej]

The reality is automation isn't going anywhere, no matter who's in charge

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Bill Gates wants the machines that replace human workers to get paid and then taxed.

 

[summerteeth]

Bill Gates wants the machines that replace human workers to get paid and then taxed.

That I think having them pay payroll taxes on a certain percentage of machines might be something to look into in order to keep social security afloat.