Should Dark Phoenix Be Shelved When Disney gets Fox?

[Detective Conan]

It seems more likely than not the Disney/Fox deal will be finalized. At this point, the only way it doesn't happen is if Comcast changes their mind by abandoning Sky and bids again for the Fox assets by the end of this week(won't happen) or a third party from FAANG out of the blue significantly out-bids the Mouse for the Fox assets prior to that fateful shareholder meeting scheduled for July 27th.

If the Fox/Disney deal goes as expected, at the rate its expected to close(by December of this year) then Disney/Marvel could potentially control the X-Men property and all related characters before Dark Phoenix comes out.

Which means technically Dark Phoenix will be a Disney film even though at the time it was being shot Disney did not own Fox. Therefore, should Disney release Dark Phoenix(if they get Fox in time) on its currently scheduled February 14, 2019 release date it will be released a month before Disney/Marvel's film Captain Marvel comes out on March 8th. In my opinion, given the fact that both Captain Marvel and Dark Phoenix coincidentally are both 90's period pieces(but in totally different universe's) and apparently Dark Phoenix is rumored to have the Skrulls in them, I think Disney should move Dark Phoenix out of its February release date and put it in a date after Captain Marvel comes out in theaters. I think there would be some brand confusion releasing them so close to each other, imo. Though I still think the film should be released in theaters since I want fans of this series to be able to say goodbye to this version of the franchise before it’s inevitably rebooted into the MCU. I understand the concerns many have that if the movie is bad(which likely will be the case given who's behind the camera & if that rumored plot synopsis is to be believed) then that will hurt the brand but even if that is the case the X-franchise will survive Dark Phoenix even if it sucks.

I want to know what the general consensus on what Disney should do with the upcoming main X-film: Should Dark Phoenix still be released in theaters despite the Disney purchase or should Disney just shelve it and dump it on the streaming service? Where does everyone here stand on the fate of that film if/when Disney gets Fox?

 

[MasterCat]

Disney has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to get the revenue from a theatrical release. Shelving a $180 million film is unprecedented by a factor of 9.
If it's bad, hyping it as "the most expensive film ever made for streaming!" is not a publicity campaign you want, and to "dump it" violates their fiduciary duty. This ain't Bright.

 

[Detective Conan]

I’ve added the poll.

 

[Yowza]

Why include a poll with people's names on it may I ask?

 

[Brutikus]

Release it,let it run it's course and then if it's not popular do the reboot.

 

[Tymminator]

Question, how much do we know for a fact they have actually spent so far on this film? Not how much they budgeted for it, but how much they actually have spent so far?

 

[Xeno]

Question, how much do we know for a fact they have actually spent so far on this film? Not how much they budgeted for it, but how much they actually have spent so far?

Unless Fox itself has released the budget, there is no way to know as of yet. When there are tax breaks involved, government records will give the figures. And Deadline's eventual ranking of the top-grossing films always has a breakdown of the budgets, assuming this wounded turkey even makes that list.

Dark Phoenix officially lacks the X-Men name in its title as its Box Office Mojo listing omits it. With any luck, it can be distanced from the franchise before Marvel Studios takes over.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=foxmarvel18b.htm

 

[Tymminator]

Unless Fox itself has released the budget, there is no way to know as of yet. When there are tax breaks involved, government records will give the figures. And Deadline's eventual ranking of the top-grossing films always has a breakdown of the budgets, assuming this wounded turkey even makes that list.

Dark Phoenix officially lacks the X-Men name in its title as its Box Office Mojo listing omits it. With any luck, it can be distanced from the franchise before Marvel Studios takes over.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=foxmarvel18b.htm

Well, it makes you think. If they don’t do any SFX/CGI, no additional re-shoots that they were supposed to do or any pic-up shots, etc, then that takes a lot off of the rumored budget guesstimates I hear being thrown around (anywhere from 160 to 200M) for this film.

 

[MbJ]

Well, it makes you think. If they don’t do any SFX/CGI, no additional re-shoots that they were supposed to do or any pic-up shots, etc, then that takes a lot off of the rumored budget guesstimates I hear being thrown around (anywhere from 160 to 200M) for this film.

It's extremely unlikely that no SFX or CGI was done on this film by now. They were already filming before the merger went into negotiations and the first round of shooting was done way back in October.

 

[Tymminator]

It's extremely unlikely that no SFX or CGI was done on this film by now. They were already filming before the merger went into negotiations and the first round of shooting was done way back in October.

I’m really not surprised on anything with this film. In March it was pushed off from November 2nd 2018 to February 14th 2019...in of itself one could dismiss that but then just because of the overall feeling I get, I think TPTB not working on some effects yet seems par for the course.

 

[Xeno]

Why include a poll with people's names on it may I ask?

This isn't a controversial poll that's likely to cause arguments, so listing who voted for which option really doesn't matter much. It's not as if our opinions are going to sway Disney, anyway.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Disney has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to get the revenue from a theatrical release. Shelving a $180 million film is unprecedented by a factor of 9.
If it's bad, hyping it as "the most expensive film ever made for streaming!" is not a publicity campaign you want, and to "dump it" violates their fiduciary duty. This ain't Bright.

Disney has a fiduciacary duty to manage the company in a way that maximizes value.

The X-men characters are worth billions in the long run, and if, in the judgement of Disney management, release of this film will bring in pennies short-term while costing them dollars long-term, their fiduciary duty would be to shelve the film.

They almost certainly will release it, but it’s not a given that such a release is the only option. It’s just the easiest, most obvious, least controversial option.

And besides, the poll question isn’t ‘will they?’ Or ‘is it their fiduciary duty’ it’s ‘should they?’

No, they shouldn’t. As a comic book fan, my interest is in seeing comic-book characters properly depicted on screen. I don’t give a damn about pennies in shareholder’s pockets. Simon Kinberg has no ability to properly depict comic-book characters, so his film should be burned, buried, fed to swine... whatever is necessary to ensure it never corrupts young minds.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Absolutely shelve it.

If the merger is completed in December, Disney does not need that pre-made film putting a blight over their future plans for MCU X-Men. And we totally don't need that cast either.

Just have FOX take the L, shelve it, put it on the streaming service and call it a day.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I’m as pro X-Men to the MCU as they get, but they should release it, assuming the films budget is in line with past mainline x-men films. New Mutants I could see getting shelved or shifted to their streaming service.

I’ll be very surprised with anything less than a theatrical release for DP. And I kinda want to see it in theaters anyway with it being the last FoX-Men movie. I’d like the chance to say goodbye to a series that started this entire craze, even if the faces are different from the ones we saw at the start.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I’m really not surprised on anything with this film. In March it was pushed off from November 2nd 2018 to February 14th 2019...in of itself one could dismiss that but then just because of the overall feeling I get, I think TPTB not working on some effects yet seems par for the course.

Films don't wait until filming is done to start CGI. They do at as soon as it is done basically. They get the dailies out to the SFX people that day and they start. So effects work already has started.

 

[Zarex]

I don't think whether it is released or not will impact Feige's future plans. Dark Phoenix was a great story back in the day, but "Female hero gains extraordinary power, but (unlike her male counterparts) can't control them!" stories are outdated, and I would be happy if the MCU doesn't go back to that tired trope.

But releasing it on Disney's new streaming service, and selling it as the finale to the series that started it all (modern day) may be a viable option. Going direct to streaming may circumvent the existing HBO pay window contract and keep the film under the Mouse's control. A big budget film only available on Disneyflix could drive a large # of subscribers to the fledgling service around its release date and may provide valuable information as to whether it is worth it for the Mouse to avoid the theater altogether for some films.

The production costs are sunk, so whether the film costs $30M or $230M doesn't really matter. If Iger and Feige don't have confidence the film will make back it's budget, using the film to launch the service and avoiding a hundred of million or so in additional marketing costs is just good business.

 

[Jh7058622]

They would be taking an L either way better to release it and possibly get a profit then most assuredly not getting one. Also putting it on the Disney streaming makes no sense as these X-Men films are completely removed from there universe so making it the draw of the service would undermine the brand. Better to let the Fox films run their course. No shareholder would sign off on a 175+ million dollar loss especially after they are hemorrhaging money from the buyout.

 

[Protar]

It's delusional to think that they would shelve a completed film that cost 180 million dollars. Now it could be argued that if it is terrible it will hurt the X-men brand somewhat going forwards. But more than 180 million dollars worth of damage?

Keep in mind that they debuted Tom Holland's Spiderman a year after the disastrous ASM2, and the character's reputation was undamaged. Given that we're likely still a few years out before we see an MCU X-men film, the effect DP will have on brand reputation is negligible.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I honestly don't think it is wise business to avoid theaters for Dark Phoenix. Marvel will do their own thing with X-Men regardless how it performs, so it really won't hurt anything putting it out and at least recovering some potential losses/alleviate that debt they are absorbing from FOX. The brand damage argument is overrated as Feige and Marvel Studios have proven to be masters at brand building/repairing (at least from phase 2 onward).

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I honestly don't think it is wise business to avoid theaters for Dark Phoenix. Marvel will do their own thing with X-Men regardless how it performs, so it really won't hurt anything putting it out and at least recovering some potential losses/alleviate that debt they are absorbing from FOX. The brand damage argument is overrated as Feige and Marvel Studios have proven to be masters at brand building/repairing (at least from phase 2 onward).

We already saw it with Spider-Man. They went from the lowest grossing and worst reviewed Spider-Man movie directly to the second highest grossing one just by virtue of him being attached to the MCU. Audiences know the difference between MCU films and non-MCU films these days.

Regardless of how bad Dark Phoenix is, the X-Men have been successful on film in the past and they have a solid fanbase. It can be rebuilt and probably rather easily once they start making good films again. Logan and the Deadpool movies were both big successes in the very recent past. I have far greater concerns about Fantastic Four, which doesn't have that. That's the difficult sale.

 

[Spider-Fan]

We already saw it with Spider-Man. They went from the lowest grossing and worst reviewed Spider-Man movie directly to the second highest grossing one just by virtue of him being attached to the MCU. Audiences know the difference between MCU films and non-MCU films these days.

Exactly! Throw Wolverine in like Ant-Man 3 or Storm in like BP2 (arbitrary examples lol), and boom. X-Men image repaired and when that MCU X-Men movie gets announced, people will salivate.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Exactly! Throw Wolverine in like Ant-Man 3 or Storm in like BP2 (arbitrary examples lol), and boom. X-Men image repaired and when that MCU X-Men movie gets announced, people will salivate.

I know this will ruffle the feathers of some fans who are sick of him, but I definitely think Wolverine should be back right away. He's by far the most popular one and a new version would bring attention to the franchise right away, regardless of what Dark Phoenix does (especially since he isn't in it).

 

[Spider-Fan]

I know this will ruffle the feathers of some fans who are sick of him, but I definitely think Wolverine should be back right away. He's by far the most popular one and a new version would bring attention to the franchise right away, regardless of what Dark Phoenix does (especially since he isn't in it).

I would like to see Wolverine not be in the first X-Men movie. But that said, he 100% should be a supporting character in another MCU film like they did with Black Panther in Civil War to introduce him ASAP. Then I say you do a Wolverine solo after that, and in the post-credits of his solo, have Xavier recruit him and put him in X-Men 2. That would be my model. If Hulk had a solo coming, that'd be my 1st choice to use Wolverine. But that is highly unlikely given the Hulk situation. But I still would throw him in something.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I don't think whether it is released or not will impact Feige's future plans.

I was running it through my head from a financial point of view and thinking, "what is the financial argument for shelving it?"

If I'm Marvel and thinking about the financial implications, I want to do a big, bold X-Men film of my own, but I also want to allow some time for the taste of the Fox films to get out of the public's mouth. I'm thinking I'd like to have a 5 year buffer.

So with that in mind, the financial advantage of not releasing it is I can release a Marvel X-Men in 2021 (five years after Apocalypse) rather than waiting until 2024, and that sooner big-time Marvel X-Men film could justify the small loss of releasing a terrible Dark Pheonix.

BUT from that perspective, 2021 is almost certainly too soon for Feige. He has a lot of films already in the works, and if they're going to rush anything, it should probably be FF. Plus, he'd probably like to lead into it with a gradual introduction of the concept of mutants.

So from a creative and financial viewpoint, it probably doesn't make much difference. Yeah, it would have been nice to not ruin Dark Phoenix for a second time, but there are plenty more stories to tell.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I know this will ruffle the feathers of some fans who are sick of him, but I definitely think Wolverine should be back right away. He's by far the most popular one and a new version would bring attention to the franchise right away, regardless of what Dark Phoenix does (especially since he isn't in it).

I'm sick of Jackman Wolverine. I can't wait to see a short, ill-tempered, nasty, Hulk challenging, costumed Wolverine.