I listened to an interview of Iranian Professor (English Literature and Orientalism, Tehran) Seyed Mohammad Maranbi today. Some salient points:
- Israel has been striking at Iran for years, but they ignored it. The priority was to build up alliances in the region (Houthis, Hezbollah, Syria, etc). But this was an attack on an embassy, so they didn't have a choice.
- Interestingly he had been in that Damascus embassy building several times.
- He doesn't know, and the Iranian public is unsure, if the Israeli attack happened as a provocative to cause a wider war to bring in the USA, or because the Israelis saw an opportunity to strike and assumed there would be no consequences.
- The counterattack was a success. Iran spent a few million dollars, used mostly their second and third grade stuff, and got past the very best air defense the US and Israel have, which cost them billions of dollars. The purpose of the cheap drones was to deplete US/Israel air defense, and collect intelligence on its abilities.
- He sees a lot of similarities between Israeli arrogance and American exceptionalism. He draws a similarity between the Israeli leadership saying they'd win in Gaza in a few days (it's now been six months), and the American leadership thinking it'd be easy to defeat Russia in the Ukraine proxy war. Neither has the self awareness to take a step back.
- The Iranians people want to see an end to apartheid in Israel.
- Iran doesn't want to be the junior partner of Russia and China, it wants to be its own independent and neutral player, but American aggression pushes it eastward.
- American sanctions on Iran were actually having a big impact, but American aggression against Russia and China encouraged them to normalize trade with Iran, and now Iran is breaking out.
He argued that the biggest loss to Israel in the past few months is not the direct outcome of hostilities with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran, but the damage that the genocide has done to Israel's reputation, which he sees among Jews, Christians, Muslims, Hindus, etc.