The North Korean Situation II

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]322295[/split]

 

[Hobgoblin]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/06/18/nkorea.missile.ap/index.html

US and Japanese intelligence have found that North Korea may be 48 hours from test launching a missile capable of hitting the US. Japan may take the issue to the UN Security Council.

Ok, so if the North Koreans launch the missile, what do you think will happen?

 

[8wid]

North Korea abducted 180,000 people, says rights group

 

[craigdbfan]

**** North Korea. I'm sorry but I'm sick of hearing of that place and its shenanigans.

 

[Spidey-Bat]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/06/18/nkorea.missile.ap/index.html

US and Japanese intelligence have found that North Korea may be 48 hours from test launching a missile capable of hitting the US. Japan may take the issue to the UN Security Council.

Ok, so if the North Koreans launch the missile, what do you think will happen?

What does a missile test usually entail?

 

[hippie_hunter]

That story is from 2006.

 

[Spidey-Bat]

That story is from 2006.

Stupid Thread Manager

 

[craigdbfan]

North Korea agrees to suspend nuclear activities

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the North has agreed to alllow International Atomic Energy inspectors to verify and monitor the moratorium on uranium enrichment and confirm disablement of its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.

Her statement says the US will meet with North Korea to finalize details for a proposed package of 240,000 metric tons of food aid.

 

[Marx]

...good to hear.

 

[craigdbfan]

I have a feeling they'll take as much aid as they can and then revert back to their same old ways as talks breakdown.

N.Korea is so predictably pathetic.

 

[Marx]

I wouldn't be surprised at all craig.

 

[Excel]

achieved through diplomacy...things keep looking better for the big o

 

[Destructus86]

I have a feeling they'll take as much aid as they can and then revert back to their same old ways as talks breakdown.

N.Korea is so predictably pathetic.

I'd be surprised if they didn't.


I still feel really bad for the people of North Korea...it's not a country, it's a cult. And many just have to play along with it or they die.

 

[Paradoxium]

We would have been better off not giving them food. Their own populations would have revolted and changed for the better. Instead they have been enabled to oppress the populations even longer, while Washington pats itself in the back.

 

[Pink Ranger]

While it is possible to see North Korea go back to its old ways, I choose to be optimistic that this represents a sea change in North Korea's relationship with the civilized world. There is just too much at stake; we're looking at the heart and soul of 2 nations, one of which is the West's most important and valuable ally in East Asia.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

The Cleanest Race is essiential reading for anyone who wants to understand how exactly the DPRK works. They don't get aid from being good, they get aid from being bad. They play the West like a fiddle, provoking as much as they can until they get assurances of aid from nervous countries such as ROK, USA and Japan. Even while they're getting aid, their state media will continue to blast the West. So the aid we give the DPRK does not endear us to their people, because they don't even know we're giving them aid. We're seen as a hostile, unclean influence. After recieving aid they will back off a little for a few months and then repeat their cynical, but effective provocations.

Kim Jong-Un is a young figurehead controlled and manipulated by the old party elite. Anyone who thinks anything will change under him is engaging in wishful thinking. The best we can hope for is "business as usual." The worst is a dangerous power-vacuum in which the aforementioned party-elite try to jostle for influence under Kim Jong-Un and try to upstage others in the party, by engaging in dangerous provocations or even military escalations with South Korea without Kim Jong-Un's authorization.

 

[Thundercrack85]

This isn't 1984 (though not for a lack of trying). Someone in North Korea must realize that the status quo can't last forever.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

What do you mean? The DPRK exists in a bubble. Internet only exists for the government elite (some universities have a closed network, like ethernet). There's not only no travel allowed outside the country, but you even need a permit to visit a different city. Radio and TV? Forget about it. All DPRK propaganda all the time, with regular police checks to make sure you haven't tampered with the radio or TV dials. If that wasn't enough, neighbors are paid to inform on neighbors. It's so closed off, it makes other relatively isolated regimes like Syria or Libya pre-2011 look progressive and open. 1984? They wish they had that much freedom.

 

[Paradoxium]

Yea it's like traveling back in time in North Korea. They were recently introduced to the concept of a "supermarket".

 

[Thundercrack85]

What do you mean? The DPRK exists in a bubble. Internet only exists for the government elite (some universities have a closed network, like ethernet). There's not only no travel allowed outside the country, but you even need a permit to visit a different city. Radio and TV? Forget about it. It's so closed off, it makes other relatively isolated regimes like Syria or Libya pre-2011 look progressive and open. 1984? They wish they had that much freedom.

The world is changing around them. South Korea is becoming a major power. They have no way of catching up. China is constantly evolving. They can't remain isolated forever.

And at this point, why do they want to stay the way they are? North Korea is a failed state. The Korea in the South is a constant reminder of that.

Though I can't see the people rising up. I can see outside forces ultimately forcing change. Or perhaps the ruling class realizing that there is no future for their country. At least not any future worth a damn.

 

[craigdbfan]

Well at least they have good food...

Oh wait no they don't. I feel so bad for the peoples lack of choice in that country.

That is one place that is long overdue a regime change but we all know China won't let go of a buffer zone which North Korea essentially is.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

North Korea opening up would mean North Korea ceases to exist. They would either be absorbed by South Korea on one end or China on the other. While the general population may be, the party elite is not ignorant to what has become of the Arab dictators who have been overthrown over the last year. They figure if they give so much as an inch, the flood-gates will open. Ideas are dangerous and they would rather their people starve than risk ending up with an Arab spring scenario.

It's also in China's best interest to make sure North Korea survives as is. As craig mentioned it's true they want a buffer-zone to protect them from the West. More than that though, they're also scared about the refugee crisis that would result from the government falling. There would be utter chaos on the Chinese border.

 

[Paradoxium]

China and South Korea probably don't want to deal with the refugees in such an event

 

[Thundercrack85]

What will happen to North Korea is hard to say. Most likely case scenario is total collapse. While everyone talks about reunification, I can't see that ever working. This isn't Germany in the late eighties.

Perhaps the Chinese will reel it in. They seem to be getting increasingly annoyed with North Korea. Perhaps make it a true puppet state.

But something will have to change.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

South Korea actually doesn't really want DPRK to fall either (despite what you may hear). The GDP difference between the ROK and DPRK is about four times as large as the difference was between West Germany and East Germany when they reunified. South Korea's economy would be destroyed from trying to modernize North Korea's infrastructure, education system, economy, technology, etc.