The winning ticket for the GOP in 2016?

[Taarna]

I still think Jeb Bush is the best choice the GOP has. Not perfect by any means, but he has the best chance because he's famous, a good record as Governor, a huge amount of funding, and a seasoned ground team who has won major elections. I also think Jeb would likely do best among Latino's as he speaks fluent Spanish and has a Latino wife.

Now for my dream ticket: A Jeb Bush and John Kasich Ticket ( Florida and Ohio ) could swing both states red. That is 47 electoral votes. A real game changer.

Kasich is a two time governor in Ohio, and well known from his Congress days. He got 64% of the vote in the last election. Bush is also a two time governor for Florida and rather popular getting 56% of the vote in his last election. Voters of these states know who these two are and like them. Obama defeated Romney 50.1% to 49.3%. Florida was that close in 2012

If the two men focus on their home states and win them as I suspect they would its game over!

Why? Obama the presidential election won 332 to 206. BUT if you take out 47 electoral votes he has 285 . You need 270 to become president.

"if no one presidential candidate gets the required majority of 270 electoral votes, than the House of Representatives would choose immediately, by ballot, the President. However, it is important to note the vote would be by states, the representation from each state would have one vote. So each Representative does not get one vote, rather each state represented in the House gets one vote."

The GOP has more states and would win if Clinton did not reach 270

 

[souvlaki]

Pretty sure its been established by past elections that VP picks have little to no effect on whether or not a candidate will win its VP nominee's home state.

 

[Tech]

I read article stating Marco Rubio probably most electable out of current pack. He has pleasant personality, doesn't alienate conservatives, but he's willing to work across aisle on immigration reform. He's young and Hispanic, which helps. He's from Florida as well, negating Jeb Bush's advantage.

Jeb Bush just has name and establishment behind him. He has also Hispanic wife and had record as pragmatist. Nonetheless, he's a Bush. Jeb is leading NH right now and he's not even a declared candidate yet (still trying to raise even more money in this crowded field). We'll see.

 

[Taarna]

Pretty sure its been established by past elections that VP picks have little to no effect on whether or not a candidate will win its VP nominee's home state.

Souvlaki,

That depends on who the VP is, and what state he/she is from.

Kasich knows his home state of Ohio very well. He was won 11 elections in a row in Ohio ( Congress 9x and 2x as the Governor ), all by landslide margins.

In addition Kasich knows where to get the votes, and what his state wants to hear better than anyone. He's also the governor and has a big say on voting laws to tilt things his way. Do you think I have a few points here, minor or major?

While Jeb Bush is is own man, his brother George W won 52.1% of Florida, and 50.8% of Ohio in the 2004 election. You could say the Bush name plays well in both states.

I believe a Jeb Bush and John Kasich would win both Florida and Ohio in 2016. And by the electoral math, win the election. The popular vote does not matter in this case.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Because Paul Ryan did so well for Romney in Wisconsin.

 

[Taarna]

I read article stating Marco Rubio probably most electable out of current pack. He has pleasant personality, doesn't alienate conservatives, but he's willing to work across aisle on immigration reform. He's young and Hispanic, which helps. He's from Florida as well, negating Jeb Bush's advantage.

Jeb Bush just has name and establishment behind him. He has also Hispanic wife and had record as pragmatist. Nonetheless, he's a Bush. Jeb is leading NH right now and he's not even a declared candidate yet (still trying to raise even more money in this crowded field). We'll see.

I live in Florida. Rubio is one of those rare authentic politicians who speaks what he believes. You could say he's almost too honest. But he isn't well versed on the issues outside his state, and is too far to the right to win a national election.

 

[Taarna]

Because Paul Ryan did so well for Romney in Wisconsin.

Kasich is far more well known / popular in his state. Kasich is a 2x governor, and had far more experience in congress. The governor has a big say in election law. As mentioned Kasich knows how to win his state. Huge advantages.

Ryan was just a guy few heard of as a house of representative person. He was Wisconsin 1st District Rep. He had little power in Wisconsin if you think about it. Maybe he did well in his own district, but that's not helping enough.

And then there is the Romney factor. Bush is a peg above him as a presidential candidate.

Ohio and Florida are the key. Whomever wins both is likely the winner in 2016.

 

[souvlaki]

Kasich is far more well known / popular in his state. Kasich is a 2x governor, and had far more experience in congress. The governor has a big say in election law. As mentioned Kasich knows how to win his state. Huge advantages.

Ryan was just a guy few heard of as a house of representative person. He was Wisconsin 1st District Rep. He had little power in Wisconsin if you think about it. Maybe he did well in his own district, but that's not helping enough.

And then there is the Romney factor. Bush is a peg above him as a presidential candidate.

Ohio and Florida are the key. Whomever wins both is likely the winner in 2016.

Paul Ryan was hardly an unknown in 2012. He was basically the tea party poster child and had way more national exposure. I follow politics and hadn't heard of Kasich until recently.

 

[Destructus86]

I vote Harrison Ford

 

[SV Fan]

Marco Rubio......but he's willing to work across aisle on immigration reform.

Are you referring to the bill he came up with 7 other Senators that he turned his back on a couple days after he found out the base hated it? That could have been a huge positive for him if it passed instead I think it will be a huge negative in a general election(especially with latino voters). Might win him some votes though in the primary, although even then it makes him looks spineless

Because Paul Ryan did so well for Romney in Wisconsin.

I laugh at the Republicans thinking they have any shot winning states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Minnesota(In a close election). Not saying they have absolutely no shot of winning them but if they do they will already be well over 300 electoral votes and winning them will just be gravy on top of all the other states they win. Probably the best way to explain it is North Carolina for Democrats. Ohio on the other hand is a true swing state(this is a state that might be enough votes to put one side over the top in a close victory)

 

[Thundercrack85]

Jeb Bush and Goerge Pataki seems like a good one to me. Nothing crazy.

Bush can take Florida, have his brother can make the rounds in Texas and the South. He doesn't need to pretend to be Rick Santorum like Mitt Romney.

Pataki, is fairly uncontroversial, and can make rounds up North and help sway some moderates.

Done.

Kasich is also a good VP choice.

 

[Lighthouse]

The winning ticket is not letting evangelicals, homophobes, racists, climate change deniers and the rest of the crazy fringe to determine their candidate. I don't know if that is possible.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I laugh at the Republicans thinking they have any shot winning states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Minnesota(In a close election). Not saying they have absolutely no shot of winning them but if they do they will already be well over 300 electoral votes and winning them will just be gravy on top of all the other states they win. Probably the best way to explain it is North Carolina for Democrats. Ohio on the other hand is a true swing state(this is a state that might be enough votes to put one side over the top in a close victory)

Minnesota is never going to happen. But the right Republican can win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is like North Carolina for the Democrats, difficult, but not impossible.

Wisconsin on the other hand has been starting to lean more to the right to where candidates like Tammy Baldwin have to rely on the coattails of a Democratic Presidential candidate in order to win. And Democrats are in delusion just how bad of shape the state party is there. They think that just because they hate Scott Walker that they're more motivated than ever, but he has completely and utterly defeated them. It'll be interesting to see how the state continues to transform in the next couple of years.

 

[SV Fan]

And Democrats are in delusion just how bad of shape the state party is there. They think that just because they hate Scott Walker that they're more motivated than ever, but he has completely and utterly defeated them. It'll be interesting to see how the state continues to transform in the next couple of years.

I am sorry Mitt Romney had more votes in 2012 then Walker had in any of his elections. Sure Republicans can win low turnout elections, but I don't see them winning Presidential elections anytime soon in that state. Unless Hillary majorly screws up I can't see her losing Wisconsin and you probably can count +1 to the Senate as well for the Democrats(Johnson barely won in a good 2010 year for Republicans). As I said Wisconsin will never be that state that just gets the Republicans ovr 270 anytime soon

Wisconsin on the other hand has been starting to lean more to the right to where candidates like Tammy Baldwin have to rely on the coattails of a Democratic Presidential candidate in order to win.

Baldwin defeated a very tough Republican challenger, a Republican who like Romney had way more votes then Walker ever got.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I am sorry Mitt Romney had more votes in 2012 then Walker had in any of his elections. Sure Republicans can win low turnout elections, but I don't see them winning Presidential elections anytime soon in that state. Unless Hillary majorly screws up I can't see her losing Wisconsin

I don't see her losing Wisconsin due to Hillary being the type of Democrat that should win the state. But this goes beyond just low turnout elections, even in 2012, Republicans kept their majorities in the state legislature. The state chapter of the Democratic Party is just an absolute mess there and much of it has to do with how bad Walker ruined union power in the state. And much of it comes from how utterly delusional the Democrats have become in that state.

But if the Democrats have a candidate that is not Hillary Clinton, like say....Bernie Sanders, with the state's recent tilts to the right, I can easily see a Republican like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio winning that state.

and you probably can count +1 to the Senate as well for the Democrats(Johnson barely won in a good 2010 year for Republicans). As I said Wisconsin will never be that state that just gets the Republicans ovr 270 anytime soon

Johnson barely won against an incumbent. Incumbents are typically very, very tough to beat, especially one that was as prolific as progressive champion Russ Feingold.

Baldwin defeated a very tough Republican challenger, a Republican who like Romney had way more votes then Walker ever got.

A Republican challenger who should have won in any other circumstance. If it weren't for Obama's coattails, we would be having Senator Tommy Thompson right now.

 

[summerteeth]

Kasich-Rubio


Kasich has the experience and a strong economic track record and Rubio would make a good running mate. Kasich is a moderate who will not alienate most of the electorate and can win a big swing state in Ohio. Rubio also will help in the swing state of Florida and with Latino voters.

 

[Taarna]

Paul Ryan was hardly an unknown in 2012. He was basically the tea party poster child and had way more national exposure. I follow politics and hadn't heard of Kasich until recently.

Who was more well known in their state? I say Kasich.

Ryan was a poster boy for the left. In hindsight he did not add much. I had not heard of Paul Ryan until days before he was the VP pick.

Most House of Rep VP picks are rather weak. A established Governor in a possible swing state is a far better choice.

 

[Taarna]

Minnesota is never going to happen. But the right Republican can win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is like North Carolina for the Democrats, difficult, but not impossible.

Wisconsin on the other hand has been starting to lean more to the right to where candidates like Tammy Baldwin have to rely on the coattails of a Democratic Presidential candidate in order to win. And Democrats are in delusion just how bad of shape the state party is there. They think that just because they hate Scott Walker that they're more motivated than ever, but he has completely and utterly defeated them. It'll be interesting to see how the state continues to transform in the next couple of years.

I pretty much agree with this, but would make Pennsylvania more of a long shot thanks to the city of Philadelphia.

The city could turn out like Detroit is they are not careful, which plays well into the Democrats vote for us and we shall take care of you pitch.

"Philadelphia, where more than a quarter of the population of 1.5 million lives in poverty, carries ratings by the three major companies that are the lowest for the top five most populous cities. It’s rated BBB+ by Standard & Poor’s, three steps above noninvestment grade. Fitch Ratings puts it one step higher, at A-, while Moody’s Investors Service ranks it two levels higher, at A2," Bloomberg added."

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...cret-draws-attention.html#cr2jUZUcWQsSORPX.99

I still say Ohio and Florida are the must wins for the GOP, then winning Virginia, North Carolina, and either Colorado or Wisconsin.

 

[Octoberist]

A winning ticket for any GOP is to STOP being so negative about the gay community. Seriously, that's why the younger demographic cannot relate to the Republicans. It's one thing to be traditional and another to be hateful and outdated.

It's one of the many things that they easily stop doing, but they do it only to please the Evangelical Christians, whose leaders seems to be pretty awful.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Ted Cruz and Michelle Bachmann.

 

[Taarna]

Kasich-Rubio


Kasich has the experience and a strong economic track record and Rubio would make a good running mate. Kasich is a moderate who will not alienate most of the electorate and can win a big swing state in Ohio. Rubio also will help in the swing state of Florida and with Latino voters.

I completely agree on Kasich. He's the best VP choice by far.

Rubio would be too risky because the media would tea off on him being a tea party candidate. I do believe the minority ethnic vote will slide backward just a tad in 2016. But if Rubio is wins the GOP Nomination, the scare tactics will be out in full force against him.

I have been following politics since my teenage years. The best GOP candidate for president gobbles up his competition rather quickly. The ones that lose tend to emerge later in the race.

Jeb is the best heavyweight of the bunch. He will announce shortly. One thing I believe the media is downplaying is His brother. George Bush can add a lot to the base by traveling to key states and helping to re-energize the religious right who suddenly fears the government is turning against them.

 

[Taarna]

A winning ticket for any GOP is to STOP being so negative about the gay community. Seriously, that's why the younger demographic cannot relate to the Republicans. It's one thing to be traditional and another to be hateful and outdated.

It's one of the many things that they easily stop doing, but they do it only to please the Evangelical Christians, whose leaders seems to be pretty awful.

I agree. They should say nothing on the topic. Leave it to the states. If your place of worship does not like it, its their business, not ours.

I wish the GOP would focus on the Jewish vote. Jews can swing NY ( 1.8 million Jews live in the state ), or Florida, and are closely aligned with the GOP on many topics, including Israel.

 

[Soapy]

A winning ticket for any GOP is to STOP being so negative about the gay community. Seriously, that's why the younger demographic cannot relate to the Republicans. It's one thing to be traditional and another to be hateful and outdated.

It's one of the many things that they easily stop doing, but they do it only to please the Evangelical Christians, whose leaders seems to be pretty awful.

I totally agree, but I feel that's something that can't be forced and will happen naturally with time as older people are replaced by younger people. I personally know many young right-leaning people who have no problem at all with gay folks and other minorities and also aren't super religious. People like Meghan McCain are probably the future of the Republican Party, and that is something that should have the Democrats shaking in their boots.

Left-leaning people act like the GOP is some irrelevant old dinosaur on its last legs. The current version? Sure, maybe. But what happens when younger, more tolerant, and more secular people inherit the Republican Party and eat the Democrat's lunch?

 

[hippie_hunter]

I totally agree, but I feel that's something that can't be forced and will happen naturally with time as older people are replaced by younger people. I personally know many young right-leaning people who have no problem at all with gay folks and other minorities and also aren't super religious. People like Meghan McCain are probably the future of the Republican Party, and that is something that should have the Democrats shaking in their boots.

Left-leaning people act like the GOP is some irrelevant old dinosaur on its last legs. The current version? Sure, maybe. But what happens when younger, more tolerant, and more secular people inherit the Republican Party and eat the Democrat's lunch?

QFT. I really think that once the evangelicals are pushed to the side eventually, the Democrats are going to be in a world of hurt.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I doubt the next generation of Republicans are much more tolerant and less Christian.

They are definitely going to dig their heels in to oppose the pro-gay, anti-Christian liberal agenda as they get older. Those who don't will be pushed to the fringes of the party.