The Warrior's Summer Box Office Preview
Source: Edward Douglas May 2, 2006
The month of May has come upon us pretty fast this year, which means it's officially the summer movie season again. As is the case every year, studios are rolling out their biggest movies, reviving a few franchises and hopefully finding a few tentpoles that will make them enough money to keep them going for the rest of the year.
This year, it's mostly about sequels and returning franchises, but there's at least one highly-anticipated adaptation and a bunch of animated offerings, not to mention a movie from each of the current kings of comedy.
(Disclaimer: Box office predictions are subject to change between the time of this posting and the regular weekly column, depending on theatre counts, marketing, and other factors. This is a preview of what to expect with some rough projections based on early information.)
The Big Three
There's no question that this summer is really about three movies, each of them trying to make close to or more than $300 million, giving their respective studios the advantage at winning the summer. Among them are a sequel, a revamp, and an adaptation of one of the biggest literary phenomena of the last decade.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Walt Disney Pictures) – July 7
Possibly the most anticipated sequels of the year is the return of Johnny Depp's Captain Jack Sparrow, Orlando Bloom's Will Turner and Keira Knightley's Elizabeth Swann in a new adventure, pitting them against the one and only Davey Jones, as played by Bill Nighy. The franchise, which started out as a big screen version of a Disneyworld amusement park ride, seemed like a gamble at first, because there hadn't been a successful pirate adventure movie in decades, but Depp won audiences over, getting himself an Oscar nomination in the bargain, and getting audiences back for repeat viewings to the point where it became Disney's second biggest hit of 2003, making over $300 million. They've been shooting this and the third part of the trilogy for the past year, and obviously, the success of the middle chapter is critical to avoid another "Matrix Revolutions" situation. Just like the first movie, it will open the weekend after 4th of July, and it stands a good chance at dominating that entire month with few other strong movies that appeal to every age, gender and demographic. That alone should allow it to end up over $300 million by summer's end, just like the original.
Box Office Potential: $300 to 310 million
The Da Vinci Code (Sony Pictures) - May 19
Dan Brown's bestselling book is given the big screen treatment at the hands of Oscar-winning director Ron Howard, once again teamed with frequent collaborator Tom Hanks, whose long and healthy movie career began with Howard's Splash. They certainly have a lot of expectations to live up to, but you can't scoff at the 40 million copies of Dan Brown's book that have sold in hardcover alone, and the fanaticism that surrounds the movie is insane, with dozens of books having been written just to analyze its contents. Howard also has what might be a perfect cast to accompany Hanks from Audrey Tautou to Ian McKellen, Paul Bettany, Alfred Molina and Jean Reno. A lot of people, including many people who don't often go to the movies, are going to rush out to see it opening weekend to see how Howard handles the religious stuff from the book, and the controversy, which includes a boycott from the Vatican, should keep it going through Memorial Day and the first week of June with the main draw being adults over 30.
Box Office Potential: $270 to 290 million
Superman Returns (Warner Bros. Pictures) - June 30
Relative newcomer Brandon Routh stars as Clark Kent AKA the Man of Steel in the Bryan Singer revival of Warner Bros.' Superman franchise, which sputtered to a halt in the late '80s after a few too many bad sequels. Sounds a bit like Batman, doesn't it? Coming off the success of last year's Batman Begins, the WB is hoping to revive another of their superhero icons, and they're hoping that Singer will have as much success with Superman Returns, as he did with the first two "X-Men" movies. With a huge budget and a cast that includes Kate Bosworth as Lois Lane and the perfectly cast Kevin Spacey as Lex Luthor, they certainly have the makings of a Super-movie. If you remember how well the first Spider-Man movie did, and you realize how popular and known Superman is by comparison, you can get some idea how easy it will be for a good movie to revive the franchise and do very, very well. Already considered one of the most expensive movies ever made, even counting Peter Jackson's King Kong, there's a lot riding on this film to do well, and fortunately, the character is such an icon that it should deliver with an impressive summer box office gross.
Box Office Potential: $260 to 280 million
Attack of the Three-quels
Although the three movies above are expected to dominate the summer, three other movies will try to do just as much business by going back to the well for a third time. At least two of them should succeed, while the third may have already worn out its welcome.
X-Men: The Last Stand (20th Century Fox) - May 26
Everyone's favorite mutants are back, as are all the actors who played them in the previous two "X-Men" movies, including Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Halle Berry as Storm, and of course, Ian McKellen and Patrick Stewart. The only one not back is director Bryan Singer, who moved onto Superman Returns, but he's been replaced by Brett Ratner (after a brief attempt by Layer Cake director Matthew Vaughn). The fanboys are nervous about the "Rush Hour" honcho messing with the mutants, but the millions of regular people who loved the last movie will probably be chomping at the bit for what is supposedly the final installment, featuring more mutants than you can count on both hands and feet. The regulars are joined by Kelsey "Frasier" Grammer as Beast, Ben Foster as Angel and Hard Candy's Ellen Page as Kitty Pryde. The three-quel is getting a plum Memorial Day release, one of the busiest movie weekends of the year, where it will be trying to take the holiday weekend record away from Shrek 2. X2 made over $89 million its opening weekend and there's really no reason why X-Men: The Last Stand shouldn't make more than that in its first four days.
Box Office Potential: $200 to 220 million
Mission: Impossible III (Paramount Pictures ) - May 5
After almost six years and various false starts, Tom Cruise is back playing Ethan Hunt, for the third movie based on the popular '70s television show. This time, he is joined by first-time movie director J.J. Abrams, best known as the creator of hit ABC shows Alias and Lost, as well as a Oscar-winner Philip Seymour Hoffman, who should take being a movie bad guy to a whole new level. The enormous varied cast also includes the likes of Ving Rhames, Laurence Fishburne, Michelle Monaghan, Kerri Russell, Jonathan Rhys-Meyers and Simon Pegg. "M:i:III" kicks off the summer movie season on Friday, and considering how long it's been since there's been a big budget action flick of this caliber, it should do very well, even if it has to face the back-to-back onslaught of Poseidon, The Da Vinci Code and X-Men: The Last Stand in the weeks that follow.
Box Office Potential: $180 to 200 million
The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (Universal Pictures) – June 16
In this case, going back to the well for a third time without either of the stars or directors from the first two movies might be a bad idea, as Annapolis director Justin Lin takes the helm for the third movie in the series, which looks at another side of street racing, this time in Tokyo. As always, the appeal will be the racing action, which helped the first two movies open to over $40 and 50 million respectively, although people might not be so keen on another one after the bad 2003 sequel, especially with the only recognizable face being that of rapper Bow Wow. Then again, the last two "Fast and the Furious" movies were underestimated, since obviously there's a younger teen male audience who eats this stuff up.
Box Office Potential: $65 to 75 million
The Water Sportsmen
Two popular directors whose names are usually the best way of selling their movies return this summer with movies, which hope to bring them back into favor with their fans after less than thrilling 2004 efforts.
Poseidon (Warner Bros.) - May 12
Wolfgang Peterson remakes Irwin Allen's 1972 boat disaster movie, shortening the title while adding more of his normal big budget special effects. His cast includes the likes of Josh Lucas, Kurt Russell, Emmy Rossum, Richard Dreyfuss and HBO veterans Freddy Rodriguez (Six Feet Under) and Kevin Dillon (Entourage). Not exactly a Brad Pitt or George Clooney in the bunch to drive it with starpower as was the case with Wolfgang's previous films Troy and The Perfect Storm. The latter might have been a good proving ground that Peterson could pull this remake, and the many moviegoers who have swarmed to big budget disaster flicks like Twister, Deep Impact, Armageddon and The Day After Tomorrow will be out in large numbers to see this one, as well.
Box Office Potential: $140 to 150 million
Lady in the Water (Warner Bros.) – July 21
M. Night Shyamalan follows up the disappointing The Village with a dark child's fairy tale for new distributor, Warner Bros. While he has a children's book to accompany it, this is not exactly a family film in its dark tale of a building superintendent, Sideways star Paul Giamatti, who finds a mermaid, played by the returning Bryce Dallas Howard, in the building's pool. Before you can say, "Didn't we just see this in a movie called Aquamarine?" they're encountering all sorts of other strange fantasy creatures. Fortunately, Night still has enough fans that they'll go see this one, though it may be more of a sleeper film that does more business based on word-of-mouth.
Box Office Potential: $120 to 130 million
Clash of the Animated Titans
Every summer, there's one or two animated films trying to get kids into theatres, and it's become a highly-competitive field in recent years with two giants fighting it out to become the dominant force in animation. For a long time, Pixar Animation Studios, who were recently bought by Disney, were the driving force of the computer animated genre, but DreamWorks Animation has found a solid money earners in the "Shrek" movies. Both studios have had summer movies that have grossed over $300 million, but for the first time, they'll be going head-to-head in the same season at a time when the novelty of computer animation may have already worn off. Should be very interesting.
Cars (Walt Disney Pictures/Pixar Animation Studios) - June 9
Pixar's first movie since The Incredibles in late 2004 and the first since they were bought by Disney will certainly be one worth keeping an eye on this June, because it will give some idea of what we'll be seeing in the company's future. After being moved back six months from its original holiday release, Cars hopes to capitalize on the current Nascar craze by bringing the motor vehicles to life with the personalities of actors like Paul Newman, Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy and others. It's directed by John Lasseter, who helmed Pixar's first three big hits, including both "Toy Story" movies and A Bug's Life, which could be just what the doctor ordered to keep the Disney/Pixar success rate going.
Box Office Potential: $240 to 260 million
Over the Hedge (DreamWorks) - May 19
Bringing the popular comic strip to life, DreamWorks' latest animated venture Over the Hedge features the voices of Bruce Willis, Gary Shandling, Wanda Sykes, Steve Carrell and William Shatner, and oh, yes, it gives another chance for co-director Tim Johnson, who helmed DreamWorks early CG animated effort Antz and their 2003 2-d animated flop Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas, another chance to make good. DreamWorks will be hoping to continue the success of last year's Madagascar, though I'm sure they'd rather see this become another tentpole franchise ala "Shrek," which might be hard with only three weeks to earn its money before Cars steals away its business. It will have the benefits of the extended Memorial Day weekend, but reaction will probably mixed compared to the more critic-friendly Cars.
Box Office Potential: $150 to 170 million
Monster House (Sony Pictures) – July 21
Sony gets into the computer animated game with a movie based on a children's book about a house that eats anything that gets near it, using the same performance capture techniques as The Polar Express. It looks like it could be a fun movie even if the animation seems a bit shaky, but avid computer animaniacs might notice a few familiar voices from other CG movies like Steve Buscemi and Jason Lee, the bad guys of Monsters Inc. and The Incredibles and Christopher Guest regulars Catherine O'Hara and Fred Willard, who both provided voices for Disney's Chicken Little. Kids should like the premise, too.
Box Office Potential: $75 to 85 million
The Ant Bully (Warner Bros.) – August 4
Warner Bros. also tries to get back into the animation game after the poorly received but well timed holiday film The Polar Express, which ended up earning over $160 million thanks to its holiday themes. Featuring the voices of Julia Roberts, Meryl Streep, Nicolas Cage and Paul Giamatti, it's about an insect-killing kid who is shrunk down to ant-size as punishment, and the computer animation used makes it look alarmingly like old school CG animation circa DreamWorks' Antz and Pixar's A Bug's Life. Younger kids probably won't care, but parents' been-there-done-that attitude, as well as the late summer release might make this one a harder sell. Should also prove that big name stars can't always sell animated movies.
Box Office Potential: $50 to 60 million
Barnyard (Paramount) - July 28
Steve Oedekerk, the man behind Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius, returns with another computer animated film co-produced with Nickelodeon Films. It's the one movie in the genre that is likely to get lost in the shuffle of stronger films by coming out in the week between Monster House and The Ant Bully. It doesn't help that it looks a lot like Disney's Home on the Range in 3-D and it doesn't have the voice talent of the other big summer animated movies.
Box Office Potential: $30 to 35 million
In Part 2 of our Summer Preview, we'll look at some of the comedies and horror movies coming out this summer. Check back later in the week for that as well as the Weekend Warrior's comprehensive list of what he thinks will be the Top 10 movies of the summer of '06.
hunter rider said:
SwordOfMorningSuper Moderator
C. LeeSuperherohype Administrator
Kahran RamsusSuper Moderator
X-Men ‘97 X-Men 97 Episodes 8, 9, and 10 - Tolerance is Extinction Parts 1-3 SPOILER Thread (14 Viewers)
