2016 Primaries and Caucuses Thread

[hippie_hunter]

Tonights the night where it all begins. For whoever becomes our next President, the road begins here. Place your bets on who will win. Make fun of a party making bad choices. Enjoy discussing the results of the nomination process!

 

[Matt]

I'm going back and forth on this.

On the Republican side, I think Cruz could conceivably upset Trump tonight. Further, depending on how good Rubio's infrastructure is, I could see him taking second and knocking Trump to third. Trump has a huge thing working against him: he isn't a politician. His staffers aren't traditional political staffers (as no insiders want to touch him, he is toxic). That is important for a caucus because a caucus can be gamed by people who know how to work it. If Trump's people are not caucus savvy, they may lose. I think losing Iowa would break Trump's momentum and kill his campaign.

On the Democratic side I think Clinton will PROBABLY win. I think if it were a straight vote, she would win by 10 points. But part of this feels like 2008 deja vu. In 2008, were Iowa a primary state, Clinton would've creamed Obama in Iowa. In fact, I bet Obama would've finished third behind Edwards. But Obama's people understood how the caucus works and were able to game it. I don't think the Sanders campaign has anyone half as good as Obama's architects David Axelrod and David Plouffe working for them. I don't think they can game Iowa as effectively as Obama did. Plus, one would think that Clinton has learned her lesson and will be far more prepared to play the game in Iowa this time around. Then again, she is a very arrogant person so I am not too confident in that. Sanders definitely has more passionate supporters. They are a more vocal minority and being a very loud minority can be enough in Iowa. Plus, I don't think Clinton is devoting the resources to Iowa that would be needed to really game a caucus. Her campaign realizes that Iowa and New Hampshire do not matter all that much on her road to the White House. Therefore, it might be ripe for picking. I guess what I am saying is, who knows?

Safe prediction for the Iowa Caucus: Trump/Clinton

Instinctual prediction for the Iowa Caucus: Cruz/Clinton

 

[SV Fan]

This caucus is tough for me. I really hate Cruz and think he would be the best possible thing to happen to the 2016 election for the Democrats. If he loses Iowa I think his campaign basically over. All that being said part of me still want to see him lose tonight. lol

Brain says go Cruz
Heart says go anybody but Cruz.

 

[Matt]

I think you underestimate Cruz. It is a mistake a lot of people have been making. He is slimy, smart, and opportunistic. I'm not sure a Cruz victory in the primary is an automatic Democrat win in November.

 

[SV Fan]

I think you underestimate Cruz. It is a mistake a lot of people have been making. He is slimy, smart, and opportunistic. I'm not sure a Cruz victory in the primary is an automatic Democrat win in November.

Cruz will be easy to create an campaign and attack him hard just based on some of the stupid things he has done the past few years trying to pander to the extreme Republican base. My guess if he wins the Republican primary we will see the worst electoral loss since Bush won in 88

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

Nervous. This is the first caucus I've been so invested in.

Standing behind my guy Bernie til the end. Trusting those corn-farmers.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I think you underestimate Cruz. It is a mistake a lot of people have been making. He is slimy, smart, and opportunistic. I'm not sure a Cruz victory in the primary is an automatic Democrat win in November.

I don't think Cruz is being underestimated and I think that most recognize that he is slimy, smart, and opportunistic. That's why I think that the GOP establishment are essentially giving Trump the victory in Iowa in order to kill Cruz's campaign. Cruz's campaign is the only GOP machine that is capable of turning an Iowa victory into a path for the nomination unlike past winners like Huckabee and Santorum. And that's why I think the establishment is using Trump to nip Cruz in the bud before he can even take off. A loss in Iowa would kill Cruz's campaign.

 

[SV Fan]

I don't think Cruz is being underestimated and I think that most recognize that he is slimy, smart, and opportunistic. That's why I think that the GOP establishment are essentially giving Trump the victory in Iowa in order to kill Cruz's campaign. Cruz's campaign is the only GOP machine that is capable of turning an Iowa victory into a path for the nomination unlike past winners like Huckabee and Santorum. And that's why I think the establishment is using Trump to nip Cruz in the bud before he can even take off. A loss in Iowa would kill Cruz's campaign.

I actually think the felling of picking Trump over Cruz in Iowa is that if Cruz loses a good percentage of his support and a good percentage(better then 50%) of those people won't switch to Trump. Many polls show that for people who like Cruz first, they pick Rubio second.

If Trump loses support Cruz will greatly benefit(although Trump basically would have to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire for that to happen)

Personally I am surprised there isn't more campaigning to vote for the worst candidate on the other side(ie Dems vote for Cruz, Republicans vote Sanders)

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I'm going with Clinton/Trump tonight. I can see Sanders upsetting Clinton in terms of popular vote, but she'll get more delegates because his vote is concentrated in a small number of precincts. We might not know the true winner for a couple of weeks.

 

[hippie_hunter]

My prediction:

GOP Caucus
1. Donald Trump (25 - 30%): I think Donald is going to win the Iowa Caucus but it's going to be a weak victory. I think in most contests he's going to struggle to get past the 30 - 35% mark because he is essentially no one's second choice.

2. Ted Cruz (20 - 25%): Cruz was the initial favorite of the Iowa Caucus because the contest suits him. It's ripe ground for him with Caucus contests favoring candidates like Cruz and plenty of conservatarians and evangelicals to pick from. Unfortunately, his strategy is biting him in the ass for three reasons: he played nice with Donald Trump for too long and thought that Trump's movement was a Tea Party-esque conservative movement when it isn't; Trump and others are sucking away too much evangelical support, and he's a ****ing dick, which created the situation where the establishment is gunning for him first over Trump.

3. Marco Rubio (18 - 23%): Rubio will benefit from his strategy of focusing on Iowa moderates in the suburbs and cities of Iowa. Also, most of the anti-Trump/Cruz voters will start to coalesce around Rubio. He will finish a strong third in Iowa to give his campaign momentum the way a strong fourth gave John McCain momentum.

4. Ben Carson (7 - 10%): Carson's campaign will continue to falter which will result in Carson most likely dropping out.

5. Rand Paul (5%): Weak showings in Iowa and New Hampshire will make Rand see that he has not inherited his father's base.

6. Jeb Bush (5%): Bush will also start seeing that his campaign is over

7. Mike Huckabee (4%): Huckabee is done. Drops out.

8. John Kasich (4%): Kasich doesn't care about Iowa, so this means nothing to him. He better pray for Rubio underperforming.

9. Chris Christie (4%): Christie is in the same position as Kasich.

10. Rick Santorum (3%): See Mike Huckabee.

11. Carly Fiorina (2%): Carly's momentum has completely fallen apart.

Democratic Caucus
1. Hillary Clinton (53%): Hillary has inherited the Obama machine and we will see the limits of Sanders' base.

2. Bernie Sanders (47%): Sanders has shot himself in the foot for finally being honest about his tax plan.

3. Martin O'Malley (Not Viable): Non factor, most O'Malley supporters will go to Hillary over Bernie.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I actually think the felling of picking Trump over Cruz in Iowa is that if Cruz loses a good percentage of his support and a good percentage(better then 50%) of those people won't switch to Trump. Many polls show that for people who like Cruz first, they pick Rubio second.

If Trump loses support Cruz will greatly benefit(although Trump basically would have to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire for that to happen)

Personally I am surprised there isn't more campaigning to vote for the worst candidate on the other side(ie Dems vote for Cruz, Republicans vote Sanders)

Trump's biggest problem is that he is no one's second choice. Polls even support that position, while candidates like Rubio benefit from being the second choice, less than 5% would consider Trump as their second choice. Even though he has the most supporters, he also has the most amount of people who will refuse to support him under any circumstance.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

3. Martin O'Malley (Not Viable): Non factor, most O'Malley supporters will go to Hillary over Bernie.

This is the only part I'd argue at this point. The only information out there right now implies they will default to the other Hillary alternative by a 2 to 1 margin.

 

[hippie_hunter]

But O'Malley supporters aren't democratic socialists the way Sanders is. They're Hillary/Obama styled pragmatic progressives. The past couple of days haven't been kind to Bernie in showing that he's a pragmatic choice.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

They might not be Democratic Socialists, but I dont think they trust Hillary to take on banking and Wall St. the way O'Malley and Sanders would.

This "pragmatic progressive" mentality is all well and good, but Iowans do seem to realize that no progressive legislation is pragmatic at the moment with a republican dominated house/senate.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Reports are coming in that Iowa is experiencing high turnout, making the Trump and Sanders campaigns happy.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Entrance numbers are looking good for Hillary Clinton and maybe Donald Trump.

 

[Marvolo]

What is the difference between an Open, Closed, and a Mixed primary? My state's primary is listed as Mixed.

 

[hippie_hunter]

What is the difference between an Open, Closed, and a Mixed primary? My state's primary is listed as Mixed.

Open means that regardless of affiliation, you can vote in one of the primaries. So a Democrat can vote I the Republican primary and vice versa, but they can only vote in one. Closed means that only registered members of a party can vote only in that party's primary, Republicans can only vote in the Republican primary, Democrats can only vote in the Democratic one. Mixed primary is where independents can join in a closed primary, but just like the open primary, they can only vote in one, not both.

 

[hippie_hunter]

More entrance polls are looking good for Trump and Rubio, poorly for Cruz and Carson.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

If these results hold, Rubio could be going back to being the favorite for the nomination in a hurry.

 

[Marvolo]

Open means that regardless of affiliation, you can vote in one of the primaries. So a Democrat can vote I the Republican primary and vice versa, but they can only vote in one. Closed means that only registered members of a party can vote only in that party's primary, Republicans can only vote in the Republican primary, Democrats can only vote in the Democratic one. Mixed primary is where independents can join in a closed primary, but just like the open primary, they can only vote in one, not both.

Ok thanks for clearing that up.

 

[Tilapia]

What happens if you show up and vote at two caucus sites? What happens legally? How is your vote counted or nullified?

 

[SV Fan]

More entrance polls are looking good for Trump and Rubio, poorly for Cruz and Carson.

So you saying my hopes of Hillary winning Montana go down the drain?

 

[hippie_hunter]

Considering how arduous the caucus process is, it's impossible to do both. When you show up to vote at a primary, they make sure you only vote for one, just like how you don't get two votes in a normal election.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Clinton is leading Sanders in entrance polls by a healthy margin.