Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

[Marvel]

The latest update for Friday.

Best Man $10.7 million

Thor $10.4 million.

This news is actually going to make me go out and pay to see it again today. Yes, it's only $10 but it's MY $10 and it'll make me feel better. It's like pulling for a political candidate but not voting. I won't do that...

 

[NoLaNitE007]

The latest update for Friday.

Best Man $10.7 million

Thor $10.4 million.

Wow. No matter what the spin is. That is not good at all.

 

[Moonwing]

Shoudln't it have done that already? Does the film still have to open anywhere else?

It will be (almost)+-there by the Monday.

 

[Liam_H]

Thor is still easily going to win the weekend even though it was beat on Friday.

 

[Moonwing]

Thor is still easily going to win the weekend even though it was beat on Friday.

Yep, it play like a family film. And I go with 600-620 total.

 

[First Avenger]

Here in Italy the movie comes out wednesday.

 

[warriorking]

We soon forget that this is only its second weekend domestically, its not like they are going to pull the movie from theatres anytime soon..
Its going to be a slow process but TDW will bring in more money, Whether it be CF or other movie openings, TDW will still be selling tickets during the holiday season...
I will revise and lower my prediction though and say it will top out at around 225 Million...
A hit by any standard...

 

[superion]

TDW was always going to make more than the first one. It was a matter of how much of a bump it was going to get.

It looks like the foreign box office will go up considerably but the domestic increase will be only minimal.

 

[NoLaNitE007]

Thor is still easily going to win the weekend even though it was beat on Friday.

Goooooood!

[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnQ_mp9TzZY]

 

[KangConquers]

Is this film still guaranteed to do $200 M domestic?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

We soon forget that this is only its second weekend domestically, its not like they are going to pull the movie from theatres anytime soon..
Its going to be a slow process but TDW will bring in more money, Whether it be CF or other movie openings, TDW will still be selling tickets during the holiday season...
I will revise and lower my prediction though and say it will top out at around 225 Million...
A hit by any standard...

$225m is not a good domestic take, but the international numbers will make up for it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Is this film still guaranteed to do $200 M domestic?

Yes, unless it somehow drops 75% next weekend. It's not going to do that though.

 

[Liam_H]

One can look at it this way, Origins is the only movie to open as high as Thor 2 and not make it to $200M domestic. And we all know why the former didn't make it.

 

[NoLaNitE007]

Yes, unless it somehow drops 75% next weekend. It's not going to do that though.

I don't think it is a guarantee to make 200 mill domestic. Not with this BH movie now being formidable and Hunger Games coming next weekend.

It may crawl to 200 mill domestic

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It has Thanksgiving to help it along though.

 

[insideguy]

It has Thanksgiving to help it along though.

Yea thanksgiving could be decent for it. The people who arent going to be able to get into Hunger Games are going to have to go see something

 

[KangConquers]

X-2 is actually starting to look like a very good model for Thor's domestic performance. Almost identical openings, very similar dailies. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Thor hit $215 M domestic.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It has Thanksgiving to help it along though.

It doesn't even need Thanskgiving. $210m-$215m would be a solid low-end at this point.

 

[warriorking]

$225m is not a good domestic take, but the international numbers will make up for it.

Considering the fact it cost 170 million to make the movie it has been a huge success for TDW thus far..
There is no downside here whatsoever.
This movie is providing hundreds of millions of dollars in profits thus far..with millions more on the way...
And disney would give its left arm to have made that much on The Lone Ranger bust earlier this summer...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It doesn't even need Thanskgiving. $210m-$215m would be a solid low-end at this point.

You're right of course.

 

[insideguy]

X-2 is actually starting to look like a very good model for Thor's domestic performance. Almost identical openings, very similar dailies. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Thor hit $215 M domestic.

Yea but x-2 opened 10 years ago. With inflation x-2 did far better.

 

[Raiden]

Yea but x-2 opened 10 years ago. With inflation x-2 did far better.

You also have to take the international box office into account, and TDW is dong way better than X2 did in the foreign markets.

However, I'm still a bit disappointed that TDW would lose to another movie on Friday, even though it will still win the weekend. I think the movie is great, but it is not without some of the flaws, so I hope Marvel would try to learn for it and correct the mistakes in the future.

 

[insideguy]

It doesn't even need Thanskgiving. $210m-$215m would be a solid low-end at this point.

No one is saying its not going to make money but I still say 200 to 215 aint great for a film that made 181 on the first film , plus following up avengers with little to no real competetion in its first two weeks. I know people are trying to put the bright side on this but lets be realistic here has anyone on these boards originally predicted this low of a box office domestic? I will have to search back through. Most were on the very high side.

 

[insideguy]

You also have to take the international box office into account, and TDW is dong way better than X2 did in the foreign markets.

However, I'm still a bit disappointed that TDW would lose to another movie on Friday, even though it will still win the weekend. I think the movie is great, but it is not without some of the flaws, so I hope Marvel would try to learn for it and correct the mistakes in the future.

International has increased for everything in the last 10 years. The market for american movies is expanded to an almost unlimited scope. 10 years from now the international take on films like thor will be twice what it is now. China alone is probably building 20 theaters a day. I can only really judge state side numbers. Those tell a better story.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No one is saying its not going to make money but I still say 200 to 215 aint great for a film that made 181 on the first film , plus following up avengers with little to no real competetion in its first two weeks. I know people are trying to put the bright side on this but lets be realistic here has anyone on these boards originally predicted this low of a box office domestic? I will have to search back through. Most were on the very high side.

The question that has to be asked is was the original Thor really as well received in the states as the fans thought it was? My answer was always no or it would have sold as much as Captain America on DVD.

I think this boost is only because of The Avengers and nothing more. Without The Avengers bump I was planning on predicting the same or slightly lower numbers than the first one to be honest.