Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

[insideguy]

The question that has to be asked is was the original Thor really as well received in the states as the fans thought it was? My answer was always no or it would have sold as much as Captain America on DVD.

I think this boost is only because of The Avengers and nothing more. Without The Avengers bump I was planning on predicting the same or slightly lower numbers than the first one to be honest.

Where do you find good DVD/blu ray numbers? And just out of curiosity what do you think this new hobbit movie is going to pull domestic? More or less than the last one?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Where do you find good DVD/blu ray numbers? And just out of curiosity what do you think this new hobbit movie is going to pull domestic? More or less than the last one?

Honestly I don't know where you find the sales, people on here told me that CA outsold Thor. So I am stupidly going on blind faith alone on that one. If anyone can find numbers to the contrary I'll stop saying it.

As for The Hobbit, right now I'm predicting 270-280mil. I know the first wasn't beloved but it's pretty much going to be the only big fantasy adventure movie in December. So less but not as low as Boxoffice Mojo is expecting (they predicted 230mil).

 

[insideguy]

Honestly I don't know where you find the sales, people on here told me that CA outsold Thor. So I am stupidly going on blind faith alone on that one. If anyone can find numbers to the contrary I'll stop saying it.

As for The Hobbit, right now I'm predicting 270-280mil. I know the first wasn't beloved but it's pretty much going to be the only big fantasy adventure movie in December.

Sounds about right. Ironically I think I am in the 1 percent that actually liked it better than the other three lol. I didnt go see it in theaters but watched it on DVD and was kinda surprised how much I enjoyed it. I think I did because it didnt have Frodo whining for hours on end and along with Gollum hissing for hours on end. It was a nice change of pace. Those LOTR movies wore me out with all the melodrama.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah you are definitely in the minority. I think the LOTR movies are classics but I did like The Hobbit.

 

[Mysteryman]

Without The Avengers Boost, I think the original 75 million prediction would probably have been what TDW would have made.

 

[psylockolussus]

You also have to take the international box office into account, and TDW is dong way better than X2 did in the foreign markets.

Again X2 was released 10 years ago and ticket prices were much lower and there were no IMAX/3D for X2.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Again X2 was released 10 years ago and ticket prices were much lower and there were no IMAX/3D for X2.

You can say the same about the The Wolverine, and no one seems to have any problems putting that over X2.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Considering the fact it cost 170 million to make the movie it has been a huge success for TDW thus far..
There is no downside here whatsoever.
This movie is providing hundreds of millions of dollars in profits thus far..with millions more on the way...
And disney would give its left arm to have made that much on The Lone Ranger bust earlier this summer...

The domestic numbers would be horrible with a low end international take. Thankfully it doesn't have one. TDW will not cover its budget domestically. It need to roughly make well $340m.

No one is saying its not going to make money but I still say 200 to 215 aint great for a film that made 181 on the first film , plus following up avengers with little to no real competetion in its first two weeks. I know people are trying to put the bright side on this but lets be realistic here has anyone on these boards originally predicted this low of a box office domestic? I will have to search back through. Most were on the very high side.

I agree. But the last thing you want to do is say that without balancing it out. Especially on a fan forum.

The question that has to be asked is was the original Thor really as well received in the states as the fans thought it was? My answer was always no or it would have sold as much as Captain America on DVD.

I think this boost is only because of The Avengers and nothing more. Without The Avengers bump I was planning on predicting the same or slightly lower numbers than the first one to be honest.

This is a solid question and I have no real answer. I guess Cap next year will give us more insight. If it kicks on where Thor didn't, perhaps audiences were not so pleased with the first or second Thor.

 

[Lord]

You can say the same about the The Wolverine, and no one seems to have any problems putting that over X2.

And it repeats, X-Men 2 was released 10 years ago and there wasn't any 3D or IMAX, prices were also different

 

[eeffos]

Good news for a change, looks like Thor held some strong numbers this weekend as per Deadline -

http://m.deadline.com/2013/11/box-office-best-man-holiday-thor-dark-world/

I think this movie will perform like the first, weak numbers during the week and good numbers on weekends.

 

[KangConquers]

Yea but x-2 opened 10 years ago. With inflation x-2 did far better.

K...cool story bro. I wasn't arguing that point. I was just noting that Thor is performing nearly identically to X-2 in terms of figures. Not ticket sales.


X-fans are so defensive lately.

 

[Moonwing]

Good news for a change, looks like Thor held some strong numbers this weekend as per Deadline -

http://m.deadline.com/2013/11/box-office-best-man-holiday-thor-dark-world/

I think this movie will perform like the first, weak numbers during the week and good numbers on weekends.

It`s just marvel thing - they perform like family films not like normal blockbusters.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

X-fans are so defensive lately.

this ^

 

[metaphysician]

How many blockbuster movies actually break even in the domestic market these days, anyway?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Good news for a change, looks like Thor held some strong numbers this weekend as per Deadline -

http://m.deadline.com/2013/11/box-office-best-man-holiday-thor-dark-world/

I think this movie will perform like the first, weak numbers during the week and good numbers on weekends.

That is good news because it looked like it was heading for a 60% drop.

 

[Liam_H]

So I guess this weekend confirms how this movie is gonna play out, weaker weekdays until it picks up on the weekends. Somewhat like IM3.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So I guess this weekend confirms how this movie is gonna play out, weaker weekdays until it picks up on the weekends. Somewhat like IM3.

Catching Fire is coming out so that will not be a great weekend for it.

 

[Krystal]

Catching Fire is coming out so that will not be a great weekend for it.

Sometimes a new blockbuster opening pulls people into movies already open due to sell-outs and not wanting to be with a huge crowd or having to take lousy seats.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't really think CF is gonna effect that much at this point, since its gonna be the 3rd weekend. If you really wanted to have seen Thor 2 there's a good chance your probably did already.

So another weekend drop around 55% or even 50% isn't gonna be that surprising.

 

[rashad]

The question that has to be asked is was the original Thor really as well received in the states as the fans thought it was? My answer was always no or it would have sold as much as Captain America on DVD.

I think this boost is only because of The Avengers and nothing more. Without The Avengers bump I was planning on predicting the same or slightly lower numbers than the first one to be honest.

Yeah for as much money as Thor made at the box office the home video sales weren't that great. Captain America did sell more units despite making much less.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

K...cool story bro. I wasn't arguing that point. I was just noting that Thor is performing nearly identically to X-2 in terms of figures. Not ticket sales.


X-fans are so defensive lately.

maybe because the didn't have a decent Xmovie since ten years? just a guess.

Catching Fire is coming out so that will not be a great weekend for it.

I'm still not convinced that people are actually interested in the new adventures of Katnip. I saw the first movie for the first time last week and hoped, since I can't stand that talentless chick that played Katnip the great supporting cast would make up for that. or that the plot would not suck.
But the movie was as awful as expected, so I really don't see hordes of people lining up to see a sequel to that crap.

 

[Liam_H]

Lol, not sure if serious.

 

[Raiden]

That is good news because it looked like it was heading for a 60% drop.

I saw an article that said the projected drop is 55%.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

Lol, not sure if serious.

pretty serious

 

[CaptainCanada]

pretty serious

Well, then your opinion is decidedly an outlier. The tracking for Catching Fire is superb, and Jennifer Lawrence is arguably the biggest female star in the world right now.