MCU Box Office

[psylockolussus]

Would be cool if Eternals opened with 100 million.

 

[Albright]

The 100 Mio opening will not crossed before Summer 22 - BP2 because of its cultural impact and because people wanna know how they deal with Chadwicks death.
Not every weekend there is Labour Day or Memorial Day or whatever the Americans had last week.
Also not NWH - just because a lot people watched a trailer in their comfortable and safe homes doesn’t mean, that average Joes will go back to theaters in December. It probably will perform good ovee Christmas…but over the first weekend? Nah

 

[psylockolussus]

If Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings can gross 75 million in 3 days, I'm sure Spider-Man No Way Home can gross 25 million more.

 

[HammerDown]

The 100 Mio opening will not crossed before Summer 22 - BP2 because of its cultural impact and because people wanna know how they deal with Chadwicks death.
Not every weekend there is Labour Day or Memorial Day or whatever the Americans had last week.
Also not NWH - just because a lot people watched a trailer in their comfortable and safe homes doesn’t mean, that average Joes will go back to theaters in December. It probably will perform good ovee Christmas…but over the first weekend? Nah

I couldn’t disagree more.
Black Widow - 80M OW (-D+)
Shang-Chi - 75M OW
Eternals - (Around 70M)

Surely Spider-Man will crack 100M without much of a problem. And I think both Doctor Strange 2 and TLT will more than likely cross that mark as well since both seem to be big event movies and will benefit from more time and strong release dates.

 

[Mr. Peanut]

America's recovery from the pandemic is crippled by the fact that half its population refuses to be vaccinated, so at this point I'm doubtful any of those movies will hit a billion. We are gonna be stuck in a contant loop of new waves and variants that keep things just on the edge of tolerability (ironically if the virus were way worse we would have delt with it a lot quicker) but never completely back to normal.

 

[psylockolussus]

America's recovery from the pandemic is crippled by the fact that half its population refuses to be vaccinated, so at this point I'm doubtful any of those movies will hit a billion. We are gonna be stuck in a contant loop of new waves and variants that keep things just on the edge of tolerability (ironically if the virus were way worse we would have delt with it a lot quicker) but never completely back to normal.

I looked it up, 62% of the U.S. population have been vaccinated.

 

[HammerDown]

Budgets of upcoming MCU movies:

Eternals - 200M
Spider-Man NWH - 180M
Doctor Strange MOM - 170M
Thor: Love & Thunder - 185M
Black Panther: WF - 205M
The Marvels - 160M
Ant-Man & The Wasp: Q - 185M
GOTG 3 - 185M

 

[psylockolussus]

Budgets of upcoming MCU movies:

Eternals - 200M
Spider-Man NWH - 180M
Doctor Strange MOM - 170M
Thor: Love & Thunder - 185M
Black Panther: WF - 205M
The Marvels - 160M
Ant-Man & The Wasp: Q - 185M
GOTG 3 - 185M

Where did you get that?

 

[HammerDown]

Where did you get that?

Spider-Man: No Way Home

 

[psylockolussus]

Spider-Man: No Way Home

How is fandom reliable though?

 

[HammerDown]

How is fandom reliable though?

Don’t know how reliable they are but I’ve seen them gathering a ton of accurate unreleased info regarding MCU projects. So whoever is contributing is doing their research.

And to me those budgets don’t seem that all that unrealistic taking into account previous numbers for the franchises. If they aren’t real, they’re probably not that far off.

 

[InCali]

I think Spidey does 100M OW. Venom got 90M. Not to mix metaphors, but 1B is a completely different can of milk.

 

[HammerDown]

Looking at the incredible 90M Venom pulled off on OW. There can’t be a shadow of a doubt that Spider-Man: NWH will easily cross the 100M OW mark.

In all honesty I think SM: NWH is going to be over 150M and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s even around to 175M.

 

[HammerDown]

Post-pandemic box office results:

Black Widow - 80M OW / Domestic: 183M + International: 195M = Worldwide: 379M (* Disney+)
Shang-Chi - 75M OW / Domestic: 223M + International: 204M = Worldwide: 427M
Eternals - 71M OW / ???

As to be expected Eternals didn't crack that 100M OW mark. Spider-Man: NWH will shatter it next month.

 

[psylockolussus]

That number is still good given all the circumstances.

And is it really post-pandemic? The pandemic isn't over yet.

 

[Detective Conan]

That number is still good given all the circumstances.

And is it really post-pandemic? The pandemic isn't over yet.

When they say “post-pandemic” they really mean the state of things since the pandemic began.

 

[psylockolussus]

When they say “post-pandemic” they really mean the state of things since the pandemic began.

K. Got it. I was confused as I keep seeing that word recently.

 

[FlareKnight]

Yeah, I think Spider-Man will cross that 100 million mark. Although it certainly will be much lower than if Covid had never hit.

1 billion...I don't know. It might take a few years to see that mark reached. Maybe Black Panther 2. That'll get people in the seats just to see how things go with passing the mantel on.

I'm not sure what else here has any hope. Guardians is a good ways out so it has good hopes of things being as good as they'll get. But that franchise settled nicely into the 700 million plus range. So might be tough to reach that mark.

100 million openings should get more possible as time goes on. Probably closer to the Thor movie or the Black Panther sequel it should get pretty consistent for these movies.

 

[Docker2.0]

Post-pandemic box office results:

Black Widow - 80M OW / Domestic: 183M + International: 195M = Worldwide: 379M (* Disney+)
Shang-Chi - 75M OW / Domestic: 223M + International: 204M = Worldwide: 427M
Eternals - 71M OW / ???

As to be expected Eternals didn't crack that 100M OW mark. Spider-Man: NWH will shatter it next month.

Your predictions are on point!!

 

[HammerDown]

Black Widow - 80M OW / Domestic: 183M + International: 195M = Worldwide: 379M (Disney+)
Shang-Chi - 75M OW / Domestic: 224M + International: 207M = Worldwide: 431M
Eternals - 71M OW / Domestic: 150M + International: 217M = Worldwide: 368M *

* Ongoing box office run.

Your predictions are on point!!

If you mean the numbers above, those are actually official results so i can't take credit for that.

 

[HammerDown]

I'll keep the Spider-Man:NWH prediction of around 175M opening weekend.
Overall i think it will be the biggest film post-pandemic. At this point i'm a bit skeptic of it clearing 1B though.

 

[HammerDown]

Now the only question is if it hits 1B WW. Seems more and more likely.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Spider-Man: No Way Home Tracking for Potential $200M+ Launch; The Matrix Resurrections, Sing 2, and More Christmas Release Outlooks - Boxoffice

As a result, we are currently forecasting No Way Home to not only become the first $100 million weekend opener of the COVID-19 era, but likely the first $200 million-plus debut since May 2019’s Endgame. (Forecasts will continue to be updated as necessary over the next two weeks.)

 

[Docker2.0]

Now the only question is if it hits 1B WW. Seems more and more likely.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Spider-Man: No Way Home Tracking for Potential $200M+ Launch; The Matrix Resurrections, Sing 2, and More Christmas Release Outlooks - Boxoffice

But, but, but Eternals didn't do well because of covid........................

 

[HammerDown]

But, but, but Eternals didn't do well because of covid........................

I get what you’re saying but the Eternals didn’t do well for a myriad of different reasons, C19, reception, quality, an unknown property, box office constraints… Other recent MCU films haven’t done great either because of C19, not playing in China…

And of course none of these proprieties is Spider-Man. Regardless of SM:NWH box office results it’s pretty clear that if it wasn’t for the pandemic it would’ve been an even bigger hit.

 

[Albright]

Idk how it’s handled where you live, but here a test is needed to go to cinemas (that includes vaccinated people). And it’s not that kind of test you can do at home. It’s the test where you have to wait 2h in line to be tested by a medical authority.
Cinemas are empty again and I predict 10-20% capacity when NWH is released.
Maybe it’s different in other countries. We’re in the darkest period of the pandemic right now. Even vaccinated people aren’t allowed to do what they were allowed the past 6 months