I think The Dark Knight will outgross Indiana Jones in North America, while the latter will win at the International Box Office. Either way, it is hard to tell because of two main factors for each respectively.
- In terms of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, how well will a fourth installment/distant sequel do at the box office?
Let's remember Live Free or Die Hard here. Yes, I understand that Indiana Jones is more popular and appealing than John McClane, but both franchises have been major hits at the box office. Die Hard With a Vengeance lost out to Toy Story as being the #1 movie of the year by a few million dollars. When Live Free or Die Hard came out, it wasn't one of the top contenders of the summer. Even though it opened at #1, and was a blockbuster, it did not make the huge numbers. The same thing could happen to Indy, regardless if it's Indy. It's not uncommon that the fourth installment of a franchise, let alone distant sequel, makes the huge numbers that it's predecessors made.
- In terms of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, how much money will it make really make with The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian opening a week before it, and Sex and the City: The Movie opening a week after it?
We know that Prince Caspian will be making the big bucks, and more than likely, Indy will debut at #1, but how strong will the legs of Prince Caspian be? No doubt, it's second week will be taking money away from Indy's opening weekend. Then the wildcard of the summer is Sex and the City: The Movie. There are the chances of it beinga major hit, and sleeper hit at that. It was an acclaimed and highly successful show, and people have been waiting a long time for the movie. The female audience must never be ignored. We all remembered what happened back in Summer 2006 with Superman Returns vs. The Devil Wears Prada. This is not fully a matter of different audience appeal, because Indy attracts the general audience. It is not solely targeting the male demographic. It appeals to every demographic just like it's predecessors have.
- In terms of The Dark Knight, how much anticipation will there actually be for this film?
Fanboyism/bias aside, there is not denying that Batman Begins did make truly amazing numbers back in 2005. However, it had great word of mouth, and was critically acclaimed just about everybody, and appealed to more than the male 18-30 demographic. The question will be whether this movie will actually make the amazing numbers that we at the Hype and others are hoping for. Will people think "Wow, Batman Begins was great. I wish I wouldn't have waited for the DVD. I'll see the next one?" The Joker will be what drives people to see this, but that is not absolute until July 18th comes around. We can only hope, not guarantee. It may seem like the hot shiznit on the net, but it is only the net. Snakes on a Plane had a massive net following, and it ended up bombing at the box office. However, this film also does have an amazing time for release, as it is basically unopposed by other major blockbusters, as opposed to Indy.
- In terms of The Dark Knight, what effect will Heath Ledger's death bring to the box office for this film?
Either this will drive people to see it to see his latest and possibly greatest role, or it may turn people away from it. How much sympathy will come into play? It has already affected the marketing for this film, for better or for worse.
...that's just me.
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