While it was projected to do at least $30M, and it’s coming in at $28.5M, this is the range for original action comedies, even when they star Ryan Gosling. PostTrak exits report he’s 50% of the reason why people went to see the movie (versus 35% for Emily Blunt). Pic took in $25.4M from offshore marketings raising its foreign gross to $36.9M, global to $65.4M.
The opening for Fall Guy is actually on the higher end of Gosling starts, ranked third after anomaly Barbie ($162M) and Blade Runner 2049 ($32.7M), yet further down on Blunt’s. It’s the ninth-best opening of her career stateside, short of Edge of Tomorrow ($28.7M) and Jungle Cruise ($35M with an asterisk – it did have a theatrical day-and-date PVOD on Disney+).
So, what gives? Why is Fall Guy playing like a deflated balloon, even with a great A- CinemaScore and 90% positive on PostTrak?
First, yes, we’re still in an uneven marketplace and won’t be out of it until we have more movies toward the end of the month into June, leading up to Inside Out 2 on Father’s Day weekend. The entire box office weekend is totaling around $73M, off 55% from the same frame a year ago, when Disney/Marvel Studios had Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 leading summer’s charge with $118.4M.
But in Fall Guy, despite how well it plays with audiences (SXSW crowds were belly laughing), there’s nothing that screams “rush to this,” despite Universal showing off the fun and the romance in its campaign. It’s too inside Hollywood, and these types of movies never play to an uber-wide crowd, despite how accessible the studio and filmmakers have tried to make it. “Why do young people want to see this movie?” challenges a film finance source.
Most of all, for an original event film at $130M-$150M+, this movie is too damn expensive.
“They should have spent like Tom Rothman: Make it for $80M. Why is Universal spending the extra money? Instead of spending $220M-$230M between production and marketing costs, they could have pulled this off for $160M-$180M,” added the source.
Some marketing sources are dinging the Fall Guy brand. “Nobody under 60 remembers that show!” However, I don’t think Universal sold the movie on that, and studios have shown before that they can take an antique TV property and turn it into a mega franchise. Hello, Mission: Impossible and Tom Cruise. What Gen Xer had actually watched Mission: Impossible back in the late ’60s? Not me, I wasn’t around then.