Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread

[Joeyjojo72]

Tracking was wrong for Deadpool because nobody knew how to track the type of movie it was.

A 3rd rate comic book character starring an at the time 2nd rate actor with a relatively small budget that was for some reason all-over the interwebs. Some analysts probably thought Deapool would be another Snakes on a Plane.

WW is a much more traditional film with a more traditional less viral based marketing, so its tracking shouldn't be that far off. Or not nearly as much as it was for DP.

And DP was rated R. Apples and pears.

Those of you who are suggesting this could do 150m+ opening are straight up cruel. Lets go with the low estimate (65m) and be pleasantly surprised. Stop screwing with people lol.

 

[Jonwo]

Having WW open against Transformers: The Last Knight as it was originally scheduled on June 23, and then Despicable Me 3 the week after would be tantamount to box office suicide.

The POTC franchise has been on a downward trend (especially the six-year gap between the fourth and fifth films). It might have a big opening, but a lot of Memorial Day openings are typically very frontloaded, i.e. the X-Men films. The Mummy is quite frankly a wild card, it could be a dud or sleeper hit (it doesn't look that good IMO). Cars 3 is aimed at a very different audience.

WW is better positioned on June 2.

Compared to MOS, the competition is somewhat easier in its first two weeks. I have a feeling The Mummy isn't going to make the same amount of money that WWZ did on its OW.

 

[MadVillainy]

I think Mummy is going to flop or at best not do too well.

Other than the MI movies, cruises recent output has been tepid at best

 

[JtheDreamer]

Those of you who are suggesting this could do 150m+ opening are straight up cruel. Lets go with the low estimate (65m) and be pleasantly surprised. Stop screwing with people lol.

150 million?

 

[JtheDreamer]

Honestly though - the girl power should be strong enough to keep it from falling on its face opening weekend.

I've changed my mind - I figure around $80-85 million.

 

[Wildcard]

I'm with those that see a $80-$85 million opening weekend. $150 million does seem too high, though I could see her getting up to $100 million...maybe $110-$120 at max.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It will top $100 million OW.

 

[Wanda Detroit]

Wonder Woman tickets are on sale now
http://www.fandango.com/wonderwoman_191725/movietimes

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Do you think there's a narrative that want this to succeed, or part of the reason the female demo want to see this is to support it and send a message? Just a gut feeling that there's a "girl-power" feel brewing for this thing

If so, the media will jump on it hard the week of release and start talking about the movie being "important".

Let's hope it doesn't get political for some SJW agenda. That can also turn off part of the audience. We just want a good (and successful) comic book movie so we can get more of them.

 

[whenforeverisnt]

I'm generally pretty good at box office predictions, and I had this at $90 million to $110 million (although $125 million wouldn't surprise me, even though I don't think it'll happen) so this $65 million is surprising... and really bugging me.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'm generally pretty good at box office predictions, and I had this at $90 million to $110 million (although $125 million wouldn't surprise me, even though I don't think it'll happen) so this $65 million is surprising... and really bugging me.

The $65 million number is bantha podo. They're already coming off it; Deadline now "predicting" tracking will rise to $75 million next week lol.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/wonder-...iegoers-interest-female-superhero-1202091776/

 

[Dr.]

...so this $65 million is surprising... and really bugging me.

Don’t let it bug you too much. From Deadline.com:

“In a recent Fandango moviegoer poll, 92% said that they are looking forward to seeing a movie featuring a standalone female superhero. That’s a stat to take to the bank, as tracking for Wonder Woman is expected to climb to $75M [currently at $65M] by next week…”

 

[Wanda Detroit]

The $65 million number is bantha podo. They're already coming off it; Deadline now "predicting" tracking will rise to $75 million next week lol.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/wonder-...iegoers-interest-female-superhero-1202091776/

Tickets just went on sale for other theater chains so that number wasn't truly based off of most pre-sales any way.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Whether it's 65 or 85 the 2nd week is probably gonna be the make or break weekend.

Both Wolverine Origins and Logan debuted with around the same OW but Logan made a lot more due to the lack of a big drop-off in following weeks.

 

[Micromind]

Whether it's 65 or 85 the 2nd week is probably gonna be the make or break weekend.

Both Wolverine Origins and Logan debuted with around the same OW but Logan made a lot more due to the lack of a big drop-off in following weeks.

There are many reasons why there was not a big drop-off in the second week, which may not be the case here.

June month has a full line up of Blockbusters waiting to be released, comparisons with likes of Logan is a bit odd considering that the lead actor is now famous for this role and is an established veteran (as opposed to Gal who is playing a lead in a her solo movie for the first time) who was on his Swanson with the character, thereby drawing in audience, to say nothing about the quality of the movie. (which was great )

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Tickets just went on sale for other theater chains so that number wasn't truly based off of most pre-sales any way.

True. I'm still convinced the 65 number was a studio plant. And darned if it didn't work, eh? Comic and movie forums around the web were all over it, movie sites posted writeups, tweets got tweeted and faces got booked. Heck, it even got Grace to do a 12-minute hair-on-fire video about how this was the end of the world! So props to the WB PR team. All buzz is good buzz so long as they spell "Wonder Woman" right!

 

[Black Narcissus]

The number will keep climbing the closer it gets to release date.

I think it does open to 100m.

 

[whenforeverisnt]

Don’t let it bug you too much. From Deadline.com:

“In a recent Fandango moviegoer poll, 92% said that they are looking forward to seeing a movie featuring a standalone female superhero. That’s a stat to take to the bank, as tracking for Wonder Woman is expected to climb to $75M [currently at $65M] by next week…”

you're trying to make me feel better

 

[Dr.]

I get the impression that fans would settle for a modest financial success (in the CA, Thor, Ant-Man range) as long as WW earned a “fresh tomato” score. I.e., good reviews are more important than BO bragging rights.


Of course… wins on BOTH fronts would be nice.

 

[Black Narcissus]

150 million?

I went back a few pages and no one mentioned the possibility of that. Joey just being joey and throwing jabs for no goddamn reason.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

At this point, im thinking much closer to 90 million than 65 million....

 

[Micromind]

At this point, im thinking much closer to 90 million than 65 million....

If early reviews are positive (for the most part), it can go up to 100 mil opening. Difficult to predict anything at this point..

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

If early reviews are positive (for the most part), it can go up to 100 mil opening..

That would be wonderful!

 

[Joeyjojo72]

BN, i predicted around 100m if memory serves. If the optics for the previous 3 films had been better, and if Snyder had zero to do with this production, my estimate would be higher. Im hoping for the best.

Im sure there are Snyder fans only sites where you wont be triggered by others' comments. But the Hype isnt one of them.

I will try to avoid discussing other DCEU movies on the WW boards going forward - at least until the premiere.

Edit: and no i didnt pull tbat 150m from thin air. Check again (if you have literally nothing better to do).

 

[Black Narcissus]

BN, i predicted around 100m if memory serves. If the optics for the previous 3 films had been better, and if Snyder had zero to do with this production, my estimate would be higher. Im hoping for the best.

Im sure there are Snyder fans only sites where you wont be triggered by others' comments. But the Hype isnt one of them.

I will try to avoid discussing other DCEU on the WW boards going forward - at least until the premiere.

I never brought up Snyder tho. You laughed at a 150m number, which did not exist and no one brought up. lol

Your own words, brotha.

Those of you who are suggesting this could do 150m+ opening are straight up cruel.

Point me in the direction of someone recently suggesting 150m opening, so I can laugh at them with you, Frank.