Will anything beat Avatar?

[matrix_ghost]

I just don't know if Potter has the ability to even high.
The 3d ( if done right) will certainly help boost it's earning and i do think that it has a very good chance of hitting 400 million domestic and 100% certain that a billion dollars WW is a lock. But beyond that.....difficult.
Even if it's the last chapter..to make a leap from close to 300 million domestic ( which is what the Potter movies has been making) to 500 million or more is just way too high IMO.

Look at LOTR. Each movie was bigger and bigger yet despite the december release and a pretty long run in the theaters neither the 2nd or 3rd movie hit 400 million domestic. The 3rd movie did hit 1 billion but they all increased only slightly. There wasn't a massive boost in BO earnings.

Maybe just maybe if Batman 3 went 3d , it would have a chance of dethroning Titanic or possibly Avatar. I mean 530 million domestic in 2d sales during the summer season is damn impressive. Ledger's death may have boosted early interest but i'm pretty sure the WOM spread quick and many people wanted to see the movie again and again. No doubt that if Batman 3 is made , all those people who saw TDK will want to see it again.

 

[GL1]

Y'know, it just clicked that Avatar grossed 2.7 billion dollars. There's no way any of these films will touch that. The Nolan-Cameron comparison above was spot-on, so lets just stick with domestic: 750 mil.

Let's be honest. Of the top 5 domestic grosses, THREE of those were original intellectual properties, not sequels or adaptations. And two of them, the top two, by James Cameron. This suggests that Cameron knows something everyone else doesn't, and unless other people figure it out, no one's going to dethrone it. Dark Knight, the closest recent contender benefited, greatly, from Ledger controversy compounding the effect of Ledger's breakout performance. How much, no one can say, but the Ledger was what was talked about, and he would have been talked about less had he survived. Batman 3 is going in without Ledger or controversy, so... that's not a big hope. This was on top of Dark Knight coming from a beloved IP, with a critically acclaimed Begins behind it and an all-star cast at their finest. It also had some other stuff going for it, but that's neither here nor there.

It was 200 million dollars short. With all that, it would still need 20 million MORE Americans to buy movie tickets, even though it broke records, was on everybody's lips and experienced multiple releases to enhance it's domestic take. It still needed to be 20% MORE popular. And if something else is going to beat Avatar, domestically, it has to top that, so the idea of a franchise doing it is pretty far fetched. No one's going to be the star alignment on Dark Knight, not even Batman 3.

Creating something that captures as definitely as Avatar, Titanic and Star Wars is no mean feat. Lighting really only struck once for Lucas. He stumbled upon what it was that the American people really want to see. Someone else may stumble upon it. Or Cameron may just come out with something else that blows it all out of the water. So, there it is. Here's to Avatar 2!

 

[Kane52630]

and you know something? Avatar is being re-released in selected 3D theaters so that number is going up as we speak

 

[SuperFerret]

I quite literally had a shudder down my spine when I saw you compare Star Wars to Titanic and Avatar.

 

[Sentinel X]

^ Obviously he is comparing them because all three were unusual box office phenomenons...which is what this thread is about.

 

[SuperFerret]

Still, they're pretty much on the opposite sides of the spectrum. Star Wars showed that with some imagination, a small budget can go a long way. Avatar was pretty much the opposite.

 

[dark_b]

so avatar has no imagination ?

 

[SuperFerret]

Some of the creature designs speak of some imagination, but that's all really.

 

[dark_b]

i respect your opinion

 

[Sentinel X]

I think the consensus is that Avatar is visually astonishing but the story and character development is certainly lacking. That is something I definitely agree on. If there was a little more character development or twist & turns in the plot it would have been a really good film (something I'll admit even though I had a lot of fun watching it).
Just look at Avatar and District 9, there are A LOT of similarities when you think about it but D9's story shines while Avatar's is a bit dull. It all comes down to the execution. I could think of so many ways AVatar could have improved storywise.

That being said, the general audience is eating it up and they love it. After Titanic and Avatar, James Cameron is obviously doing something right.

 

[Zanham]

Nothing lasts forever. Say what you want about it, Avatar being the highest grossing movie of all-time by a landslide isn't 'nothing' so it WILL eventually fall from the top spot.

I just don't believe any of the movies mentioned will do it:

Green Lantern - I don't know if this was mentioned as a joke but there is NO WAY this... why am I even arguing this one?

Justice League - IF it ever happened, it's chances would be about the same as The Avengers - somewhere between slim and none.

The Avengers - Iron Man 2 made around $620 million and Iron Man around $585 million. Neither of the Hulk movies cleared $275 million which is probably why it hasn't become a franchise. I have difficulty seeing Thor, Captain America, or Nick Fury topping $300 million. There is no way The Avengers cracks the $1 billion mark, let alone $3 billion.

Batman 3 - It'll do big money but, unless one of it's stars dies before it's release, it won't even surpass The Dark Knight.

Avatar 2 - the 3-D technology IS what got Avatar top spot, make no mistake about that. That technology isn't quite as new for Avatar 2 and the box office won't be quite as much.

Harry Potter 7 - I'm not a Harry Potter follower but I do believe I heard this is the two-part finale of the franchise. That alone may bring in a few million more people it normally wouldn't. It's almost a lock to clear $1 billion. Does it have enough in the tank to earn another $2 billion and top Avatar? Not without 3-D it doesn't and I don't think it does even with 3-D.

The Hobbit - It would seem a logical choice BUT I can't see either part doing $2 billion more than Lord of the Rings:Return of the King. Especially with Lord of the Rings being on television all the time AND the unique world becoming nothing new.

-------

No, I don't see any of these movies beating Avatar as the highest grossing movie of all-time. There is only one. There is only one movie that can unseat Avatar anytime within the next 25 years, at the least. Our lone savior from the reign of Avatar could only be...

World of Warcraft - As it is, The Hobbit and Harry Potter 7 have the best chances. I expect both parts of each to pass the $1 billion mark or come very close. What will stop them is the fact that they aren't introducing anything new or showing something refreshing. World of Warcraft might not exactly be new and refreshing but it could successfully combine enough relatively new and fresh things to be that freakish occurence, just like Titanic was, just like Avatar was.

The World of Warcraft is set to be directed by Sam Raimi who is no stranger to big box office success with the Spider-man trilogy having made around $2.5 billion combined. That's still not as much as Avatar though.

The World of Wracraft online game is said to have around $12 million subscribers WORLDWIDE. The worldwide audience IS already there BUT nearly 2/3 of those subscribers are in Asia and Asia is not where most movie ticket sales come from. Of course, the Chinese have shown if they like something they will reward it and they do like World of Warcraft.

--

3-D technology would have to be implemented, in my opinion, if it were to stand a chance at overthrowing Avatar. The World of Warcraft is such that it's not the Tolkien-like world of LOTR or any other type of world from that dungeons & dragons fantasy type genre. It is actually more like the world in Avatar. Hell, if you want to nit-pick, the Navi look pretty damn close to the night-elves in World of Warcraft. Avatar would have actually been a good idea for the World of Warcraft movie, with some modifications of course.

It has to happen soon. With video games progressing so quickly and the primary audience of such games having very short attention spans, the window of opprotunity for a World of Warcraft movie to be a herculian, mammoth blockbuster of a movie may be closing.

With all that covered, as long as this movie adds some Bruce Campbell, Ray Park, and throws in some easily marketable murlocs then it should easily surpass Avatar as the highest grossing movie of all-time.(the last paragraph is joking of course)

 

[FaT_tONle]

You have to go four dimensions with Avatar 2 if people are going to want to get up for it. I'm talking about holograms walking in the theater that you don't need glasses to see.

 

[Zanham]

You have to go four dimensions with Avatar 2 if people are going to want to get up for it. I'm talking about holograms walking in the theater that you don't need glasses to see.

Agreed. 3-D has zero impact on me, for one, at this time. I went and saw Avatar the first day it was released, not because of the 3-D but because I knew it would be huge. I didn't expect it to be as big as it has become but, nonetheless, all those paying to see it are now following me.

Take Resident Evil: Afterlife for example. Am I interested in seeing it? Sure. Does the 3-D have any bearing on my decision? Absolutely none. The 3-D announcements on the trailers are as insignificant to me as 'for a limited time only' announcements.

The 3-D won't hurt a movies chances but I believe it helps it's chances very minimally. Unless it the World of Warcraft movie, of course.

 

[SuperFerret]

WoW?

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Batman 3 - It'll do big money but, unless one of it's stars dies before it's release, it won't even surpass The Dark Knight.

How about the whole cast this time?


But seriously, none of these films will break Avatar's record. Domestically I can see the Avengers taking top spot but only if the following happens:

1) Thor is a huge success
2) Captain America is a huge success
3) Insane Marketing
4) Optional - Robert Downey Jr. dies (Me even hypothetically saying that made me sad )
5) Incredible reviews and great word of mouth

I can't see Harry Potter beating it because despite how popular it is world-wide, none of that Harry Potter films have been or will be even close to Avatar domestically.

If anything, a film that going to break Avatar's record will definitely be one we haven't mentioned.

 

[GL1]

Y'know, the cast doesn't have to die to generate that kind of publicity, it can just be their last movie, or convincingly enough their "last" movie.

 

[CashforStash]

The Hobbit?

 

[CashforStash]

Oh, maybe even a Jaws sequel or something Jaws related (which i hope doesn't happen).

Jaws made just a lil below 400 million in 1975. Imagine what it could make today.....

 

[the_ultimate_evil]

does the re-resale seem desperate to anyone else. i got the feeling with all the reception the likes of inception was getting, avatar coming back to cinema just seems a case of

no no look at us we're the best film of the year

 

[Spider-Vader]

and you know something? Avatar is being re-released in selected 3D theaters so that number is going up as we speak

I really doubt that will pull in big numbers. Who wants to go to the movie theaters to see a movie out on DVD/Netflix?

If Thor & Cap are successful, 1 billion world wide is basically a lock IMO. I don't see it outdoing Avatar, but it could possibly get 2nd place. If it's a good movie, that is.

 

[Passdom]

does the re-resale seem desperate to anyone else. i got the feeling with all the reception the likes of inception was getting, avatar coming back to cinema just seems a case of

no no look at us we're the best film of the year

Uh no

James Cameron talked about doing a re-release back in late February/March. No one was talking about Inception back then.

 

[redhawk23]

Some of the creature designs speak of some imagination, but that's all really.

the star wars "heroes journey" story line was and is just as tired out as the "Pocohantas" story line from Avatar.

 

[redhawk23]

barring a sudden doubling in the average ticket price i see this record standing for at least a decade

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

the star wars "heroes journey" story line was and is just as tired out as the "Pocohantas" story line from Avatar.

Not really. The Hero's journey is still a popular story form and exists through many different alterations too.

Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, and practically every superhero film uses the heroes journey.

 

[dude stannis]

the star wars "heroes journey" story line was and is just as tired out as the "Pocohantas" story line from Avatar.

But the hero was surrounded by iconic characters like Han Solo and Darth Vader on his journey. With the exception of Quaritch every other Avatar character was boring as bat feces.