Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread

[Creo]

Deadpool just opened to 132 mil last year in his first solo outing, despite it not being in Summer and being R-rated. We saw Spider-Man make an adjusted 152 mil OW at a time of tremendous CMB skepticism. Heck even Iron-Man, who at the time was a B-lister at best, practically got a 100 million 9 years ago.

WW is an A-list superhero, a household name, and by all intents and purposes the most famous female superhero. This is more than doable for Wonder Woman, even if it fails to reach 150 mil, it should not be that far off.

Yes, I mentioned Spider-Man already. IM1 adjusted is $111 million, quite a ways off. I did forget DP, but he's a gigantic outlier in a movie that's not comparable to WW at all.

Wonder Woman, the name, is known in households. But the character isn't a household staple by any stretch. Outside odd the DC animated universe, she's really done nothing outside of BvS since her live action show. Most people couldn't tell you anything about her outside of generic power guessing and her lasso.

It's not hitting $150 million, severely better known and more popular characters haven't. $100 million is very doable, but that huge number is setting the movie up for failure.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Why would a WW film open better than a modern Superman film? MoS actually also had much less baggage.

With the Christopher Nolan name drop it even had a vague connection to the Nolan films.

 

[PacificBoy]

Why would a WW film open better than a modern Superman film? MoS actually also had much less baggage.

With the Christopher Nolan name drop it even had a vague connection to the Nolan films.

I feel any 'baggage' is confined largely to the interweb. While the DCEU, as yet, doesn't have the same cachet as Marvel to the general public, it doesn't have the derision ascribed to it in some corners of the net. And even if there's a trace of it offline, Wonder Woman and its general cast and crew have it the least, as we see from its solid marketing to the comparative lack of controversy chasing after it. It takes one well-received movie to make the DCEU favourable in the eyes of moviegoers IMO, and I believe this could be the movie to do so.

 

[brandeezy89]

Why would a WW film open better than a modern Superman film? MoS actually also had much less baggage.

With the Christopher Nolan name drop it even had a vague connection to the Nolan films.

There's a bunch of factors why

 

[Bruce Malone]

I still haven't heard any convincing reasons yet.

$65 million is arguably the low end but I don't think anyone should get there hopes up too much for 100 million+.

Either way as I've mentioned unless a film really does open-huge like Suicide Squad, the 2nd weekend is key for most super-hero films. A 100 million debut with a 60% drop is not in for a great run.

 

[brandeezy89]

I still haven't heard any convincing reasons yet.

$65 million is arguably the low end but I don't think anyone should get there hopes up too much for 100 million+.

Either way as I've mentioned unless a film really does open-huge like Suicide Squad, the 2nd weekend is key for most super-hero films. A 100 million debut with a 60% drop is not in for a great run.

- First Wonder Woman movie ever
- First female solo CBM since Elecktra (12 years)
- Wonder Woman was the best aspect of BvS
- MOS was ripped apart by and critics before opening day
- MOS had free Walmart tickets factored into their opening week total
- MOS was the 6th Superman movie and coming off of one that was mixed reception wise
- MOS was labeled "too dark" for a Superman movie before it came out.

But it seems like you're moving goalposts. Now it's "But if it does a 100M+, a 60% drop...."

I like how you're automatically assuming that the movie will have a 60% drop and that it would equal a horrible BO. MOS dropped 64% it's 2nd week but still made 291M DOM. Just say that you don't want this movie to do well and move on.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm not assuming anything. I'm just saying people who are expecting this film to debut well past 100 million (150 million even) are potentially setting themselves up for disappointment.

My point on the 2nd weekend was not that it will drop 60% but it's probably better to debut with a lower OW and have stronger legs than a relatively big opening and drop.

 

[Silver Surfer]

The comparison to MoS is incorrect, Superman has had so many movies before it that the novelty factor was very low, especially considering the last superman movie was a ****-bag. WW has a great creative team, tremendous anticipation, wide brand recognition, and is releasing during the apex of the CBM genre.

Wonder Woman needs to be compared to Spider-Man 1 and Deadpool to a lesser extent, as these characters waited decades to get their solo outing. And guess what, both Deadpool and Spider-Man delivered. Wonder Woman will as well. Mark it.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

So basically if you go with a low estimate , say 65m, youre a hater rooting for the film to fail. And if you go with a high estimate, say 125+, youre a hater rooting for the film to fail. Got it.

Im saying around 100m give or take, which makes me a WW/DCEU superfan i guess.

 

[JtheDreamer]

The comparison to MoS is incorrect, Superman has had so many movies before it that the novelty factor was very low, especially considering the last superman movie was a ****-bag. WW has a great creative team, tremendous anticipation, wide brand recognition, and is releasing during the apex of the CBM genre.

Wonder Woman needs to be compared to Spider-Man 1 and Deadpool to a lesser extent, as these characters waited decades to get their solo outing. And guess what, both Deadpool and Spider-Man delivered. Wonder Woman will as well. Mark it.

Nearly EVERY comic book movie character we've seen has waited decades. That's not saying much.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I feel any 'baggage' is confined largely to the interweb.

And you would be wrong.

The public knows she was a part of BvS.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Nearly EVERY comic book movie character we've seen has waited decades. That's not saying much.

And none of them were as popular as Wonder Woman, expect for Spider-Man which performed as such.

 

[Zero_Effect]

And you would be wrong.

The public knows she was a part of BvS.

 

[Greenlite]

And you would be wrong.

The public knows she was a part of BvS.

She was received well in BvS by the public, in case you forgot

 

[metaphysician]

Yeah, her exposure in BvS is a mixed blessing, but not totally negative. If anything, the generally terrible movie made her part look better than it strictly deserved.

 

[Micromind]

I would say had Snyder not introduced her in BvS, it would have been even more difficult task for WB to get people interested in her movie.

 

[JOE]

I'm not sure that she could support a movie on her own. Would have loved to see other characters in the movie, but I'd love to be wrong. Hopefully it's not filled with corny "justice" lines hyping Justice League.

 

[seriesofdreams]

Hard to not imagine a $100m+ opening for such an iconic figure. I'll stand by that as my number. Everything else depends on reviews, WOM and how much the DCEU was tarnished by 2016.

Even during the GOTG2 push, WW had a strong Twitter presence although I didn't see much in the way of TV spots. But, those are becoming less important these days and people consume media differently.

I have modest and optimistic expectations for this film.

 

[brandeezy89]

The movie is already Top 5 on the Fandango Pulse, usually that doesn't happen until the week of release.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The movie is already Top 5 on the Fandango Pulse, usually that doesn't happen until the week of release.

Are you sure about that? Because I remember something about Power Rangers of all things being in there a couple of weeks out, even with Logan, Kong and BatB.

 

[whenforeverisnt]

Are you sure about that? Because I remember something about Power Rangers of all things being in there a couple of weeks out, even with Logan, Kong and BatB.

Yea, I don't trust it 100%

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Hard to not imagine a $100m+ opening for such an iconic figure. I'll stand by that as my number.

Same.

 

[brandeezy89]

Are you sure about that? Because I remember something about Power Rangers of all things being in there a couple of weeks out, even with Logan, Kong and BatB.

I highly doubt PR was on the Pulse weeks out. A week before release? Maybe

 

[Flint Marko]

Yeah I think this is getting near that 100M opening. I think it's going to surprise people how well it opens; whether or not it will have any legs is the real question.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I highly doubt PR was on the Pulse weeks out. A week before release? Maybe

I need to look this up. It was a big deal for one of our posters here. Maybe it was more like a week out.

Yeah I think this is getting near that 100M opening. I think it's going to surprise people how well it opens; whether or not it will have any legs is the real question.

Only going to surprise those who are intentionally lowballing this.