Election 2020: Voting Numbers Tracking Thread

[RolandDaggett]

What are people's thoughts on Insider Monkey's predictions? They paint a pretty slim chance for Biden.

So they got lucky once and they're betting on that again. Not surprising.

Also they have this ad on their site LOL.

 

[Iceman]

I still expect undecides at this point to break in mass for Trump. There is no reason to be undecided now unless you want to vote for Trump.

That said, with the wave of early votes apparently coming from Democrats, chances are the vote totals on election day will skew Trump, even if it is only marginally.

I'm hoping there's some lifelong Republicans who have had enough of Trump too, and see Biden as one of the few Democrats who they can stomach voting for to get Trump out. In any case, hopefully the early turnout dominates and the position is strong ahead of Election Day.

 

[Steyin]

So they got lucky once and they're betting on that again. Not surprising.

Also they have this ad on their site LOL.

Haha. Would never have known with my adblockers. Also, my friend who repeatedly gets $2 bills might want one of those haha.

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

I still expect undecides at this point to break in mass for Trump. There is no reason to be undecided now unless you want to vote for Trump.

That said, with the wave of early votes apparently coming from Democrats, chances are the vote totals on election day will skew Trump, even if it is only marginally.

I do really wonder, and not joking, with these Covidchellas he keeps having... How many of those at rallies actually won't be able or ALLOWED to vote? If my mom was a Trumper I for sure would not want her standing in line for any time to vote.

Given the margins... Could this affect election day? And not in the **** Bags' favor?

I know election day is gonna be anxiety inducing to the max.

 

[mclay18]

Wow! That’s a huge portion of the country.

We've already hit 60 million. And since it's the last week of early voting, the numbers are just going to increase.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The Washington Post - The U.S. has already hit 48% of total 2016 voting
At least 67.1 million have voted nationwide, with 7 days until Election Day

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Total Early Votes: 68,594,113 • Mail Ballots: 45,921,127 • In-Person Votes: 22,672,986
Note: Some states do not differentiate between mail ballots and in-person votes.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It's really dumb that some states don't differentiate between mail in ballots and in person ballots.

That's just an Idiocracy level of laziness.

 

[DJ Kornphlake]

 

[mclay18]

Roughly 70 million (actually 69.5 million as of tonight) have voted.

We'll definitely hit 100 million early votes by Halloween.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Voting by mail: Here's when states can start processing those ballots - CNNPolitics

 

[mclay18]

According to Michael McDonald's U.S. Elections project, over 79 million have voted as of today.

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

 

[InCali]

Voting by mail: Here's when states can start processing those ballots - CNNPolitics

Here's the thing though.....if Biden can win any 2 of GA, FL, AZ and NC, WI and PA become somewhat irrelevant. I don't see Trump winning in WI or PA (WI in particular). Trump basically has to sweep those states and win one of the states Biden appears to be leading in. He's got a very rough road in front of him and the polls aren't changing much at this point. It's all turnout.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Here's the thing though.....if Biden can win any 2 of GA, FL, AZ and NC, WI and PA become somewhat irrelevant. I don't see Trump winning in WI or PA (WI in particular). Trump basically has to sweep those states and win one of the states Biden appears to be leading in. He's got a very rough road in front of him and the polls aren't changing much at this point. It's all turnout.

An interesting thing is according to 538's model, if Biden loses Pennsylvania, but holds onto Wisconsin and Michigan (which are polling better than Pennsylvania at the moment), he still has a 59% chance of winning. All he would need is Arizona and NE-02 and he gets exactly 270. He wouldn't even need any of the true tossups like North Carolina and Florida.

 

[InCali]

An interesting thing is according to 538's model, if Biden loses Pennsylvania, but holds onto Wisconsin and Michigan (which are polling better than Pennsylvania at the moment), he still has a 59% chance of winning. All he would need is Arizona and NE-02 and he gets exactly 270. He wouldn't even need any of the true tossups like North Carolina and Florida.

Yeah. I was listening to Steve Kornacki who was saying exactly the same thing. Problem is that some of these electors have been known to vote differently than the state results. If someone did that, how do you think the Supreme Court would rule? I don't think that all of them are technically required to follow the results. In fact, they didn't last time.

 

[souvlaki]

So, I don't think Trump is going to try and stop vote counting at midnight now that it appears many of the rural counties in PA wont even begin counting their votes until Wednesday.

 

[InCali]

So, I don't think Trump is going to try and stop vote counting at midnight now that it appears many of the rural counties in PA wont even begin counting their votes until Wednesday.

Are you (gasp) saying that Trump would try to change the rules for his own political benefit???

 

[souvlaki]

Super helpful article on when we can expect results from each state and what we can expect to see as far as which results will be tabulated first and which direction the results will likely go as the night goes on.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Early voting in Texas has already surpassed the total vote in 2016.

More then half the people in Hawaii have already voted.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Silver expects Florida to be fast, so maybe I'm simply too stuck in the past. We'll see Tuesday.

 

[Lobo]

I'm in Miami, between me, my family, and friends, we all did our part. We're all Ridin' with Biden. And for what it is worth, when I went to vote, I saw a lot of Biden/Harris t-shirts and masks.

 

[samsnee]

But of course they have

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ba976a-186f-11eb-befb-8864259bd2d8_story.html

 

[Punisher_MAX]

I'm in Miami, between me, my family, and friends, we all did our part. We're all Ridin' with Biden. And for what it is worth, when I went to vote, I saw a lot of Biden/Harris t-shirts and masks.

I'm also from Miami but living in Orlando, my family down there has pretty much all voted, and for Biden, my mom and my brother are going tomorrow.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

 

[Boom]

So how does this work. Are mail-in/early votes counted before, after or concurrently with day-of votes?

I figure Biden's advantage is in the mail-in/early votes whereas day-of will be more Trump-heavy.