The Batman Box Office Super Early Predictions

[fake]

Shots fired on Man of Steel. Lot of people think that $667M was great for MOS, but at a cost of $225M and the then Studio anticipating it to be their highest grossing film, it's another underwhelming CBM performance.

It's never about the final gross. Although that is a big part.

It's always about reception and future possibilities.

For example, Batman Begins and Superman Returns both grossed the same domestic and WW at roughly equivalent budgets (Superman Returns had to account for the Superman Lives development in it's budget). But only Batman Begins got a sequel because Superman Returns wasn't received well among the general audiences, and didn't have good legs whereas Batman Begins had both and great DVD sales.

Similarly, The Batman's budget ballooned thanks to Covid delays which means a sequel can be brought in at the same or lower budget. Had a bigger opening and better legs than MoS both domestic and WW (had way way better legs than BvS). To make a Superman sequel, the budget will always need to increase a lot since you can get away with lower salaries and less VFX in the first movie compared to the sequels but the costs don't increase as proportionally for a Batman sequel.

In the end it's always the reception, legs and the box office/budget looked at as a package for the decisions to go ahead with sequels.

 

[fake]

The Batman will likely get to within spitting distance of 800M, likely hitting 800M as well



It's got 40-50M domestic left and 40+ OS left as well

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

WB, be smart! Do not released this on HBO Max yet, wait until May after Doctor Strange comes out!

 

[Black Narcissus]

Eh, I need to rewatch this on HBO MAX pronto. They've made more than enough at this point. I needs that feeling of pressing pause as I go take a leak, mate.

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

 

[DlAMONDZ]

Shots fired on Man of Steel. Lot of people think that $667M was great for MOS, but at a cost of $225M and the then Studio anticipating it to be their highest grossing film, it's another underwhelming CBM performance.

It's only underwhelming if you ignore context. June 2013 was brutal. You had MOS, Monster University, WWZ (at the height of TWDs popularity) and Despicable Me all in a single month

If that's underwhelming then The Batman's 750m+ with inflated ticket prices and a whole month with 0 competition is underwhelming too

 

[fake]

It's only underwhelming if you ignore context. June 2013 was brutal. You had MOS, Monster University, WWZ (at the height of TWDs popularity) and Despicable Me all in a single month

If that's underwhelming then The Batman's 750m+ with inflated ticket prices and a whole month with 0 competition is underwhelming too

The more important context is the OW to final total multiplier both domestic and OS.

MoS didn't NEED to be released in that logjam, WB clearly thought it could hold it's own and gave Pacific Rim the July slot.

MoS didn't get to critical reception it needed to hold on when those other movies released. It should have been the big fish, instead it was swallowed up because it was so sub-par from what was needed and expected. And I say that as a fan of the movie. There were so many small creative decisions which needed to be different or slightly tweaked and would have led to great word of mouth and holds.

 

[DeadlyWest]

Man of Steel did fine, as far as I'm aware or am concerned. Superman hasn't been the big earner at the box office since the Reeves days and the last movie pre MoS was Returns. It's a B&R to Begins type situation. WB were likely banking on BvS making up for that

It didn't.

 

[JKKS085]

MoS went way over budget, was supposed to launch a shared universe and was mildly received.
When you look at the bo numbers they look fine but the dynamic just wasn’t there to start a franchise, let alone a cinematic universe.

The key to launching a viable franchise is still cost control, no matter how valuable you think your ip is and WB has been, and too often still is, unable to find the right balance.

 

[Invader Joker]

It's only underwhelming if you ignore context. June 2013 was brutal. You had MOS, Monster University, WWZ (at the height of TWDs popularity) and Despicable Me all in a single month

If that's underwhelming then The Batman's 750m+ with inflated ticket prices and a whole month with 0 competition is underwhelming too

It was underwhelming because it literally did not meet WB's expectations at all: 'Man of Steel': Warner Bros sets bar high most expensive Superman film - Variety

Warner Bros. motion pictures group president Jeff Robinov went so far as to predict it will be the studio’s highest performer ever.

It's easy to forget it, but many markets are still struggling with what remains of the pandemic. It did extremely well in the US tho, much better than BvS, so the underwhelming overseas results can be attributed to that and not to the movie itself. Sequel will do much better.

 

[fake]

It was underwhelming because it literally did not meet WB's expectations at all: 'Man of Steel': Warner Bros sets bar high most expensive Superman film - Variety



It's easy to forget it, but many markets are still struggling with what remains of the pandemic. It did extremely well in the US tho, much better than BvS, so the underwhelming overseas results can be attributed to that and not to the movie itself. Sequel will do much better.

The Robinov quote was self-sabotage. He was on his way out of the company at that time and this was his parting shot.

The biggest issue with MoS remains the critical and audience reaction leading to the low legs.

 

[Boom]

The fact that the Man of Steel sequel was turned into a "versus" film with Batman as a co-lead, with the intention of setting up Justice League, tells you all you need to know about what WB thought of MoS. Did decent enough to act as a springboard for a shared universe/Justice League franchise, but not decent enough to make a solo Superman franchise an exciting prospect for the studio.

 

[Erzengel]

By the time MOS was released it was tied for the 9th most expensive movie of all time. I don't see how it can be argued that $667 was "fine" or despite competition it did well. You don't spend that much on a movie and then are ecstatic about it's outcome especially since the other 2 WB movies that cost more than MOS were Harry Potter HBP and TDKR did well. If the quality was there, it should have done better. Monster's U & Despicable Me only share some of the audience.

An as aside, WB was also anxious to get this out because there was a rights issue with Superman.

 

[JKKS085]

By the time MOS was released it was tied for the 9th most expensive movie of all time. I don't see how it can be argued that $667 was "fine" or despite competition it did well. You don't spend that much on a movie and then are ecstatic about it's outcome especially since the other 2 WB movies that cost more than MOS were Harry Potter HBP and TDKR did well. If the quality was there, it should have done better. Monster's U & Despicable Me only share some of the audience.

An as aside, WB was also anxious to get this out because there was a rights issue with Superman.

If I can add and give a frame of reference, that same fiscal year, if you factor in bo and hv sales, Gravity was 5 times more profitable for WB than MoS. And despite reporting a 225M production budget it is now well known in the industry that they indeed spent upwards of 260M in production while they initially greenlit the project for 175M. The amount of money WB sunk into the 3 Snyder movies, still to this day, puzzle people that are much more versed in this subject matter than I am.

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

 

[Boom]

Let's go $800 mil!

 

[DlAMONDZ]

The more important context is the OW to final total multiplier both domestic and OS.

MoS didn't NEED to be released in that logjam, WB clearly thought it could hold it's own and gave Pacific Rim the July slot.

MoS didn't get to critical reception it needed to hold on when those other movies released. It should have been the big fish, instead it was swallowed up because it was so sub-par from what was needed and expected. And I say that as a fan of the movie. There were so many small creative decisions which needed to be different or slightly tweaked and would have led to great word of mouth and holds.

Domestic multiplier: 2.5x
Overseas multiplier: 5.3x
Worldwide multiplier: 3.5x

It had an A- cinemascore as well. Nothing suggests MoS capped out at 668m because of bad or mediocre WOM

WB is known for sabotaging their own movies with terrible slots. Just recently they had Flash opening a week before Black Panther 2 which was beyond idiotic. Outside of lucking out with Wonder Woman, it usually goes as expected as we recently saw with Shazam

 

[JKKS085]

Overseas multiplier: 5.3x

MoS’ international release was scattered between mid and late june depending on territories.
When you compare opening week-end to overall gross there’s very few places where it gets a over x2.75.

 

[LaRataAlada]

The fact that the Man of Steel sequel was turned into a "versus" film with Batman as a co-lead, with the intention of setting up Justice League, tells you all you need to know about what WB thought of MoS. Did decent enough to act as a springboard for a shared universe/Justice League franchise, but not decent enough to make a solo Superman franchise an exciting prospect for the studio.

This

MoS went way over budget, was supposed to launch a shared universe and was mildly received.
When you look at the bo numbers they look fine but the dynamic just wasn’t there to start a franchise, let alone a cinematic universe.

The key to launching a viable franchise is still cost control, no matter how valuable you think your ip is and WB has been, and too often still is, unable to find the right balance.

No. It wasn't "supposed" to launch a shared universe.

That came in retrospect after a softer disappointing opening, and run in general compared to what they spent or anticipated it to make.

Critical and audience reactions weren't all that positive, so instead of audiences anticipating what should've happened ... which was a true Superman centric sequel to MOS. The quick fix from WB, was lets hurry up and catch up to the MCU. Make a shared universe in our next film.

Let's throw in our cash cow, another reboot of Batman, which didn't make much sense. Announcing his inclusion just a year after this much beloved take and actor playing the character in TDK Trilogy had just definitively ended.

What could go wrong, am I right? They've been recovering with too much alterations on the fly, ever since. They didn't have an actual plan. Everything was an audible on the go.

That's why the only real quality films since, that critics and audiences have liked to love, is what WB / DC does best. Solo films. WW, Aquaman, Joker, and now The Batman. All those films stylistically, apart from WW, distanced themselves from the Snyder-isms.

 

[Boom]

 

[fake]

Domestic multiplier: 2.5x
Overseas multiplier: 5.3x
Worldwide multiplier: 3.5x

It had an A- cinemascore as well. Nothing suggests MoS capped out at 668m because of bad or mediocre WOM

WB is known for sabotaging their own movies with terrible slots. Just recently they had Flash opening a week before Black Panther 2 which was beyond idiotic. Outside of lucking out with Wonder Woman, it usually goes as expected as we recently saw with Shazam

The domestic multiplier was 2.25X. you are getting 2.5x because they didn't include 12M from Thursday screenings into the weekend, MoS OW is 128M and not 116M.

The OS multiplier looks higher because of staggered release dates around the world including 70M from China a month after release everywhere else. The OS openings to final multiplier is less than 2.5x. same for the WW multiplier.

Please get the numbers right before insisting that it had good legs.

I'm a huge MoS fan, and that movie did not have good legs anywhere.

 

[ironman_rick]

So another milestone down - $700M. It is good enough for an orgin movie.

BTW, i was kinda surprised when i looked into the breakdown of the Boxoffice. I initially thought that that this movie skipped china (or China did not give the greenlight) but when i saw that only $20M came from there, it was quite a shock. I honestly thought that china will contribute at least 100M for this movie.

There could be a few reasons why this movie grossed lowly in china
1)They are just not into DC universe (apart from AQUAMAN because of the director)
2)The covid situation is really bad there so any foreign movie released will have their boxoffice affected
3)Maybe they are not keen on foreign movies anymore

Whatever the reason, i hope hollywood realizes that a China release is not that critical anymore cos NWH grossed over $1.8B without china.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

So another milestone down - $700M. It is good enough for an orgin movie.

BTW, i was kinda surprised when i looked into the breakdown of the Boxoffice. I initially thought that that this movie skipped china (or China did not give the greenlight) but when i saw that only $20M came from there, it was quite a shock. I honestly thought that china will contribute at least 100M for this movie.

There could be a few reasons why this movie grossed lowly in china
1)They are just not into DC universe (apart from AQUAMAN because of the director)
2)The covid situation is really bad there so any foreign movie released will have their boxoffice affected
3)Maybe they are not keen on foreign movies anymore

Whatever the reason, i hope hollywood realizes that a China release is not that critical anymore cos NWH grossed over $1.8B without china.

Most of the big cities in China are currently under quarantine due to Covid.

 

[DKDetective]

Most of the big cities in China are currently under quarantine due to Covid.

And the government is pushing back against Hollywood movies as well.

 

[DKDetective]

Thank you for the 7 day break, it was actually refreshing to not check the forums every five seconds.

But I had some feedback…

“Cool your horses” isn’t a saying that anyone says, and your message loses some credibility when you’re confusing idioms. For future reference, when you want to give someone a break with a snappy message and a gif, it’s “cool your jets” or “hold your horses”. Not “cool your horses”.

I gave you time off for being condescending and rude to your fellow posters. You seriously thought a good first move back was to tell a mod that their warning post banning you lost credibility due to an obvious typo? You obviously didn't learn your lesson.