The Batman Box Office Super Early Predictions

[Dr.]

For a fan, the only tangible benefit of a movie’s decent box office is that a sequel is secured. (Which appears to be the case for The Batman.) Beyond that, celebrating a big BO — and/or pooh-poohing a weaker BO — is often just about bragging rights: “Na-na na-na. My movie did better than yours.” Ultimately, however, these sorts of playful pissing contests are of limited value. For instance: I was decidedly underwhelmed by Aquaman. So the fact that it’s WB/DC’s box office champ does little to improve my opinion of the movie. On the other hand, the feeble theatrical earnings of Batman Begins are, at this point, utterly irrelevant. That film is iconic.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Guys, let's take this down a notch and start discussing this civilly.

Thank you

 

[fake]

Whoa lol, like I said. Touchy subject…

I shared my take on the numbers and it doesn’t need to anger people lol

I love this movie but I wouldn’t be saying any of this if it made 800m+. This is Batman, 800m should have been the minimum if this really caught on with audiences. The last two solo Batman movies made over a billion dollars, same with the solo Joker movie.

Something can be profitable but still be a mild disappointment.

I genuinely don’t want to anger people I’m sensing a lot of emotions behind some of these reactions, and I don’t think that is an appropriate response. I’m happy to drop it, I just wanted to share my take on the BO performance. I’m not the only one that feels this way. I’ve never said it bombed or failed or isn’t profitable. Just that it’s a mild disappointment. 800m should’ve been a given when you consider how good the movie was.

Interesting you are saying emotions when your entire premise for saying to box office is disappointing is "My feelings"

I have been tracking box office since 2004 and you saying this is disappointing box office is the single worst box office take I have ever read, and that includes a guy saying Rogue One was not an event movie.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Interesting you are saying emotions when your entire premise for saying to box office is disappointing is "My feelings"

I have been tracking box office since 2004 and you saying this is disappointing box office is the single worst box office take I have ever read, and that includes a guy saying Rogue One was not an event movie.

Again, we can make the same points without the antagonism. FINAL warning on this. If the discussion continues to be hostile, I am handing out punishments ranging from infraction points to vacations.

Be. Civil.

 

[TheGDBatman]

Whoa lol, like I said. Touchy subject…

I shared my take on the numbers and it doesn’t need to anger people lol

I love this movie but I wouldn’t be saying any of this if it made 800m+. This is Batman, 800m should have been the minimum if this really caught on with audiences. The last two solo Batman movies made over a billion dollars, same with the solo Joker movie.

Something can be profitable but still be a mild disappointment.

I genuinely don’t want to anger people I’m sensing a lot of emotions behind some of these reactions, and I don’t think that is an appropriate response. I’m happy to drop it, I just wanted to share my take on the BO performance. I’m not the only one that feels this way. I’ve never said it bombed or failed or isn’t profitable. Just that it’s a mild disappointment. 800m should’ve been a given when you consider how good the movie was.

If you're basing this strictly based on namesake (ie. Batman is a bigger name then Aquaman, therefore it should generate more) then sure, your argument holds up (sort of). But that's a very silly and reductive argument imo.

It's the type of argument that ignores every piece of information and context between this movie and those releases. Financially, it's not a disappointment. From a strictly numerical standpoint, the movie is doing very well. They've made back their money and more, and will undoubtedly be enjoying their ride on the gravy train.

The general rhetoric around this movie from almost everyone was "OMG this is a three hour detective movie.... will this be too dark for most people? WHAT ABOUT THE KIDS?! Will everyone want to sit through it for three hours?! AGAIN, WHAT ABOUT THE KIDS?!". The very notion of this style of movie had people worried it would bomb (and I'm not talking about not hitting a billion dollars. That's not a bomb).

Hell, the domestic run alone will outgross Batman Begins' ENTIRE box office performance (not adjusted for inflation) and that's the first entry in a critically applauded and genre defying series.

I just don't know how you look at all those factors, compare them to movies that are generally more four quadrant leaning (Joker notwithstanding) and say "OMG this is a B-O-M-B. A DISAPPOINTMENT".

As others have mentioned, I'd love to see the math that is pointing you in the direction of this being a disappointment. Not being sarcastic, I would genuinely like to see if you're seeing something we aren't.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I will give my 2 cents on this since I came here.

This ain't a bomb or financial disappointment from any cost/revenue ratio math you can do. Fans may perceive it to be disappointing cause recent years have conditioned us into thinking anything less than 1 billion for a comic book movie is a disaster, but that is mostly from a fan perspective. Only the really expensive major event ones with like 350+ mil investment need that kind of return from a fiscal perspective.

In other words, don't let NWH fool us all into thinking we are back into 7 billion dollar films a year territory, or that name recognition alone makes you a nearly 2 billion dollar film

 

[The Lazarus Pit]

Everyone is so defensive lol. I probably liked this movie more than most of you, I think it’s probably DC’s best movie. I never ever said it was a bomb, please re-read my posts. I said it was a mild financial disappointment. Joker, and the last two Batman movies all made 1B, Aquaman made a billion, Spider-Man just made a billion…. this should’ve hit at least 800m. I understand the context, I’ve followed these movies just like you guys have, I lived through the pandemic like you guys have lol. I HAVE the context just like you all do, and you’re not telling me anything I don’t know OR changing my mind. It is a profitable movie, but profitability doesn’t mean it can’t be mildly disappointing. I’d imagine WB execs were hoping for at least 800m-1b

I’m sensing too much anger here. I’ve been trying to dip out of this thread but you guys keep responding with these aggressive triggered posts.

Ultimately all that matters is that this was thankfully profitable enough for WB to continue with their sequel plans. That’s all that matters, it’s not like the money is going in our pockets.

 

[DKDetective]

Everyone is so defensive lol. I probably liked this movie more than most of you, I think it’s probably DC’s best movie. I never ever said it was a bomb, please re-read my posts. I said it was a mild financial disappointment. Joker, and the last two Batman movies all made 1B, Aquaman made a billion, Spider-Man just made a billion…. this should’ve hit at least 800m. I understand the context, I’ve followed these movies just like you guys have, I lived through the pandemic like you guys have lol. I HAVE the context just like you all do, and you’re not telling me anything I don’t know OR changing my mind. It is a profitable movie, but profitability doesn’t mean it can’t be mildly disappointing. I’d imagine WB execs were hoping for at least 800m-1b

I’m sensing too much anger here. I’ve been trying to dip out of this thread but you guys keep responding with these aggressive triggered posts.

Ultimately all that matters is that this was thankfully profitable enough for WB to continue with their sequel plans. That’s all that matters, it’s not like the money is going in our pockets.

@Spider-Fan told you guys to cool your jets and be civil. Making jabs at your fellow posters as being "emotional", "triggered", and "touchy" is condescending and goes beyond a good faith discussion of the topic. Time for a break.

 

[TheGDBatman]

Just a couple last points (I don't think my last post was aggressive or anything, but if it was then... well, you're wrong because it wasn't lol).

I think you're projecting quite a bit. To say 'I'd imagine WB Execs were hoping for 800M to 1B" comes without any sort of evidence or backing. I could say the exact opposite "I'd imagine WB execs were hoping for 300M to 500M" and it would be completely valid with that logic.

Ultimately, I think you're arguing a nebulous point that none of us can really argue definitively. If you remove the natural inclination to positively correlate profit with studio contentment, and just assume that WB pegged expectations on different movies and their recent performance, then you could probably make that argument. But since we don't have any insight into WB's expectations, all we can do is look at the math, compare it to what we know historically, and make the assumption that they're probably happy with it.

Now, if The Batman 2 comes in at similar numbers to this, then I think you'd be able to make a much stronger point using the same argument you're currently making.

At the end of the day you're going to feel how you feel, and that's totally fine and valid. Doesn't mean you're wrong, but it also doesn't mean we are either.

@Spider-Fan told you guys to cool your horses and be civil. Making jabs at your fellow posters as being "emotional", "triggered", and "touchy" is condescending and goes beyond a good faith discussion of the topic. Time for a break.

Just haddddd to go and use your mod powers to send them away before they could read my revelatory post. Some men just want to watch the world burn....

 

[Boom]

It should cross $700 million this weekend and will still have at least 3 weeks in theaters.

 

[Erzengel]

I will give my 2 cents on this since I came here.

This ain't a bomb or financial disappointment from any cost/revenue ratio math you can do. Fans may perceive it to be disappointing cause recent years have conditioned us into thinking anything less than 1 billion for a comic book movie is a disaster, but that is mostly from a fan perspective. Only the really expensive major event ones with like 350+ mil investment need that kind of return from a fiscal perspective.

In other words, don't let NWH fool us all into thinking we are back into 7 billion dollar films a year territory, or that name recognition alone makes you a nearly 2 billion dollar film

I just want to add some things in here that I think this movie should have made more in a vacuum. BvS cost $250, grossed $872M. It's been argued that it underperformed. So the Batman cost $200 and let's say gross $750M, I can see why some people would think it is similar.

However, I do acknowledge China, Russia, reboot etc. And if the Batman makes $400M domestically that puts it #13 which I don't see how you can't call that a success. It's just the foreign market which is usually for comic book movies can be 59% of the gross. Russia and China combined for BvS was over $100M and $300M for Aquaman.

 

[DeadlyWest]

I just want to add some things in here that I think this movie should have made more in a vacuum. BvS cost $250, grossed $872M. It's been argued that it underperformed. So the Batman cost $200 and let's say gross $750M, I can see why some people would think it is similar.

However, I do acknowledge China, Russia, reboot etc. And if the Batman makes $400M domestically that puts it #13 which I don't see how you can't call that a success. It's just the foreign market which is usually for comic book movies can be 59% of the gross. Russia and China combined for BvS was over $100M and $300M for Aquaman.

I'm not sure if I'd argue it underperformed strictly in a "did it make profit" sense

This was the first movie with Batman and Superman together, ever. Two of the most iconic and popular superheroes of all time. It's pretty safe to say that sounds like the easiest billion dollars ever. That movie should've broken box office records. But it didn't. Because it was bad. It still made a fairly okay chunk of change, but it didn't light the box office on fire like WB expected.

I somewhat doubt WB expected that to happen here. As I've said before and will say again, this is a 3 hour long slow burn detective thriller of a Batman movie and is the first solo Batman movie in 10 years, with the only thing between that being a version of the character only a very specific type of person liked and everyone else at minimum disliked. Furthermore, it's been made in the COVID era. WB knew it was never gonna make a billion dollars and never expected it to be a major box office success in the traditional sense. Otherwise, they wouldn't have essentially soft locked the cinema window to 45 days before it goes to streaming services. But despite that, it's likely gonna get somewhere around 725-760 million dollars and broke even on the production budget opening weekend. Which is damn good.

 

[Boom]

BvS made $400 million dollars in 3 days, ran in domestic theaters for 12 weeks, and still couldn't crack a billion. It had a historic 2nd week drop. Word of mouth killed that movie. That's what sobered Warner Brothers.

The Batman made $700 million in 4 weeks. If allowed to run for 12 weeks, who knows how it would've performed?

 

[DeadlyWest]

BvS made $400 million dollars in 3 days, ran in domestic theaters for 12 weeks, and still couldn't crack a billion. It had a historic 2nd week drop. Word of mouth killed that movie. That's what sobered Warner Brothers.

The Batman made $700 million in 4 weeks. If allowed to run for 12 weeks, who knows how it would've performed?

Jesus Christ they ran BvS in theatres for 3 months? I don't even remember that, that is wild lmao.

 

[Boom]

Jesus Christ they ran BvS in theatres for 3 months? I don't even remember that, that is wild lmao.

Just look at the week-by-week totals. It's honestly stunning.

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - Box Office Mojo

But WB "overreacted."

 

[DeadlyWest]

Just look at the week-by-week totals. It's honestly stunning.

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - Box Office Mojo

But WB "overreacted."

Good God, the fact that it took 2 weeks for the box office to fall by 90% is borderline depressing

 

[DKDetective]

BvS made $400 million dollars in 3 days, ran in domestic theaters for 12 weeks, and still couldn't crack a billion. It had a historic 2nd week drop. Word of mouth killed that movie. That's what sobered Warner Brothers.

The Batman made $700 million in 4 weeks. If allowed to run for 12 weeks, who knows how it would've performed?

Jesus Christ they ran BvS in theatres for 3 months? I don't even remember that, that is wild lmao.

Yep, and CinemaScore, legs, and word of mouth are huge for a studio when it comes to a reboot. It shows that the new take resonates with people.

Despite WB kneecapping the legs for this by announcing such a short theatrical window, they are still looking really good. The holds have been strong. When the projected $400 million domestic haul, that is a 3+ multiplier on its opening weekend. Which is really good for a blockbuster. Begins got a 4x multiplier and that was considered godly even when blockbusters were less frontloaded and longer runs as standard.

And that is without even considering COVID factors or the fact that multiple international markets were lost due to war and plague.

 

[Erzengel]

Yep, and CinemaScore, legs, and word of mouth are huge for a studio when it comes to a reboot. It shows that the new take resonates with people.

Cinemascore is obviously very skewed. Even movies like F4ntastic has a C- which is probably the worst for any CBM since 2000. BvS is a B and both Suicide Squads & Birds of Prey are a B+. The TDKT are all A. I was just a little surprised it was A- and not just A.

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

 

[Erzengel]

Shots fired on Man of Steel. Lot of people think that $667M was great for MOS, but at a cost of $225M and the then Studio anticipating it to be their highest grossing film, it's another underwhelming CBM performance.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Good article!

 

[Boom]

 

[Boom]

Shots fired on Man of Steel. Lot of people think that $667M was great for MOS, but at a cost of $225M and the then Studio anticipating it to be their highest grossing film, it's another underwhelming CBM performance.

MoS ran in domestic theaters for 14 weeks. The Batman matched MoS's domestic total in nearly a third of that time.

Man of Steel - Box Office Mojo

The market is certainly different than it was nine years ago, but that goes both ways. Who knows where The Batman would end up if it were able to run in theaters for three and a half months?

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

MoS ran in domestic theaters for 14 weeks. The Batman matched MoS's domestic total in nearly a third of that time.

Man of Steel - Box Office Mojo

The market is certainly different than it was nine years ago, but that goes both ways. Who knows where The Batman would end up if it were able to run in theaters for three and a half months?

AND get those China & Russia numbers.

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

Legs still kicking, good chance to get $350 domestically this weekend.