The Batman Box Office Super Early Predictions

[Dr.]

Do you know what percentage they reap from it?

Some sources says studios get about 40% of the international gross (compared to about 55% of domestic). And with China, it can be more like 25%. Even so, most bigger budget movies absolutely need the international BO in order to show a profit. I.e., the domestic BO — in the best case scenario — can maybe get you to breakeven.

 

[flickchick85]

Do you know what percentage they reap from it?

No it’s not a set number as it depends on a lot of factors and is negotiated each release with the foreign distributor/exhibitors. But they usually can get up to 75-80% of the domestic gross while the amount they get from the international gross is almost always well under 50%.

 

[Doctor Jones]

So it seems they've made a profit already if we're going by doubling the budget. At this point it's more about how much more it'll make.

 

[DeadlyWest]

So it seems they've made a profit already if we're going by doubling the budget. At this point it's more about how much more it'll make.

Also gotta keep in mind that the streaming profits are gonna be a whole other can of worms, with the profits likely going straight to WB due to them literally owning HBO Max. In some form, more or less all the money HBO Max gets from The Batman is gonna go straight to WB

 

[Boom]

And assuming the HBO Max spinoffs come to fruition and assuming they are successful, that'll only build more good will and anticipation for the sequel.

 

[metaphysician]

No it’s not a set number as it depends on a lot of factors and is negotiated each release with the foreign distributor/exhibitors. But they usually can get up to 75-80% of the domestic gross while the amount they get from the international gross is almost always well under 50%.

Though that is also complicated by the expenses of international distribution. Which is to say, part of *why* they get a smaller cut is typically that their local distribution partner is handling some/all of the expenses.

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

Again, this movie is doing awesome domestically!





I still have hope for $400M, going to be close. Probably $380-$390M

 

[The Lazarus Pit]

I’m not impressed by these numbers. I love this movie, but I think the BO performance is a little disappointing. It’s not a failure by any means, but it wasn’t a massive success. Aquaman and Joker making more than this movie is so weird to me. Pandemic or no pandemic, I think this should have made more and I’m a bit disappointed. Outside of fanboy circles, i haven’t seen many of my peers talking about the movie after it released either.

before you guys jump down my throat, I loved the movie. Be real with yourselves. It should have made more, and admitting that it’s a slightly disappointing performance doesn’t make you any less of a fan.

 

[DeadlyWest]

I’m not impressed by these numbers. I love this movie, but I think the BO performance is a little disappointing. It’s not a failure by any means, but it wasn’t a massive success. Aquaman and Joker making more than this movie is so weird to me. Pandemic or no pandemic, I think this should have made more and I’m a bit disappointed. Outside of fanboy circles, i haven’t seen many of my peers talking about the movie after it released either.

It's a 3 hour long slow burn detective thriller and already has one of the most impressive domestic grosses of any DC movie.

I think that's pretty goddamn impressive, personally

 

[The Lazarus Pit]

It's a 3 hour long slow burn detective thriller and already has one of the most impressive domestic grosses of any DC movie.

I think that's pretty goddamn impressive, personally

That was quick lol. I knew this was coming.. and wish i edited my post sooner.. admitting to yourself that it’s a disappointing BO performance doesn’t make you any less of a fan.

 

[DeadlyWest]

I knew this was coming.. and wish i edited my post sooner.. admitting to yourself that it’s a disappointing BO performance doesn’t make you any less of a fan.

Hear me out here

It is completely possible for someone to disagree with you and not be lying to themselves.

 

[The Lazarus Pit]

Hear me out here

It is completely possible for someone to disagree with you and not be lying to themselves.

The writing is on the wall, this made less than Aquaman, Joker, Suicide Squad, BVS, etc;

Believe what you want, but it’s pretty clear that this is a slight disappointment. I think fans get very defensive because it’s a good movie and they want it to succeed. But it wasn’t the groundbreaking massive success WB wanted it to be. It has had a respectable but ultimately slightly disappointing performance.

edit: it did make more than Justice League, but that isn’t saying much.

 

[Boom]

Aquaman had all of the ingredients of a MCU style of movie, and the underwater concept had never been done quite at that scale before. It was one of those weird movies where I could've easily seen it being a flop or a smash hit. I'd be lying if I said I thought it'd do a billion, but that result didn't stun me either. Regardless, you can't compare it to The Batman because they are two very different animals.

Joker benefited from cultural zeitgeist. Leading up to that movie, there was so much talk about how dangerous it was and how people were going to get hurt. Morbid curiosity attracts a crowd. The fact that the movie turned out to be pretty good on its own merit gave it the word of mouth needed to sustain legs and push it to heights unanticipated. I had that movie at $500 million worldwide tops.

The Batman did $700 million in less than a month. There is nothing to hang your head over about that.

 

[DeadlyWest]

The writing is on the wall, this made less than Aquaman and Joker, Suicide Squad, BVS, Justice League, etc;

Believe what you want, but it’s pretty clear that this is a slight disappointment. I think fans get very defensive because it’s a good movie and they want it to succeed. But it wasn’t the groundbreaking massive success WB wanted it to be. It has had a respectable but ultimately slightly disappointing performance.

Bro it's not even done premiering in cinemas yet lmao

We got another 20 days yet. Also it cleared Justice League by 10 million. Pretty sure 700 million is a fairly safe bet.

There's a lot of factors that have led to slightly diminished international returns. The entire can of worms with Russia meant it didn't even premiere in Russia and China's gotten really bad with COVID which meant it barely got anything from there.

And yet it's got nearly 700 million bucks, half of that being domestic which is a bigger profit for WB (literally all of the movies you just listed had 2/3s be international gross) and is more than BvS ever got in its domestic run, Justice League ever got in its domestic run or Suicide Squad ever got in its domestic run and has matched both Joker's and Aquaman's domestic run.

With 20 days left to go. For a 3 hour long Batman reboot.

The writing's not on the wall at all.

 

[The Lazarus Pit]

Believe what you want, I think it’s clear that this is a slight disappointment. But I’ll leave it alone, because it’s a touchy subject. I ****ing loved the movie. I wish it were more successful because it’s exactly the type of Batman movie I’ve always wanted.

 

[Boom]

Are they even pulling it from theaters in 20 days? I just assumed it'd be available on HBO Max and theaters at the same time for a few weeks. I doubt there's any real urgency in pulling it from theaters until it stops generating enough money to justify screens.

 

[DeadlyWest]

Believe what you want, I think it’s clear that this is a slight disappointment. But I’ll leave it alone, because it’s a touchy subject. I ****ing loved the movie. I wish it were more successful because it’s exactly the type of Batman movie I’ve always wanted.

Look man, I get being worried if you look at the absolute total. It is a little concerning if you just look at that. But the whole billion dollar milestone thing for movies is completely arbitrary. Movie profits are more complicated than that. It depends on what the budget was (which in itself is a little complicated to precisely figure out due to the lack of insight into marketing budgets), how much of the profits are domestic and so on. With 20 days to go before it hits streaming services, it's matched the domestic gross of the two movies you listed that made a billion dollars on a production budget which is anything from 50 to possibly 100 million dollars cheaper than most blockbusters. It's not as massive a profit as Joker, but that's because that movie essentially had a string and box of matches for its budget. It looks a little scary if you look at just the total, but looking a little closer at the details shows the movie's doing just fine. WB announcing the Penguin spinoff almost immediately is a pretty good indication that they're happy with The Batman's performance.

Make no mistake, if this movie was bombing, I would not have any issues admitting that. My favourite movie of all time before this barely broke even in cinemas and frankly I'd be perfectly content if we didn't get a sequel to this movie (I want one obviously, but I'd be fine with this movie's ending being the last note of the story). But it's really not doing as badly as you seem to think.

Are they even pulling it from theaters in 20 days? I just assumed it'd be available on HBO Max and theaters at the same time for a few weeks. In any case, I doubt there's any real urgency in pulling it until it stops generating enough money to justify screens.

No, but it's pretty safe to say that the box office profits are gonna nose dive once it does hit streaming services. Most people would rather take the convenience of it streaming than go see it in theatres, especially given its runtime. Which isn't a bad thing, given there's gonna be a pretty chunk of streaming service profits anyway.

 

[The Lazarus Pit]

Thank you, but I know how domestic gross works and how much they need to make a profit. You’re not telling me anything I don’t already know. I know these things and they factored into my determination that this movie was a mild financial disappointment. It’s not a failure, but no one should be doing cartwheels because of the box office performance. Not saying that you were, but any sort of overly positive take on the box office feels like a reach. But like I said, I will drop it because it is a touchy subject.

 

[fake]

Thank you, but I know how domestic gross works and how much they need to make a profit. You’re not telling me anything I don’t already know. I know these things and they factored into my determination that this movie was a mild financial disappointment. It’s not a failure, but no one should be doing cartwheels because of the box office performance. Not saying that you were, but any sort of overly positive take on the box office feels like a reach. But like I said, I will drop it because it is a touchy subject.

You are completely wrong if you think this is any kind of financial disappointment. It's not even a question of argument, its just plain wrong to even TRY and position this as a financial disappointment.

Saying that is pretty much trolling tbh.

A movie needs to make 2.5x its PRODUCTION budget to make a profit. This is because marketing is more than covered by VOD, DVD sales and TV/Streaming rights.

There is no world in which a 200M budgeted movie making 400M domestic and 775M WW would be a financial disappointment, especially with the legs and reviews.

Don't fall for the cult trying to lead you into fake numbers.

 

[fake]

That was quick lol. I knew this was coming.. and wish i edited my post sooner.. admitting to yourself that it’s a disappointing BO performance doesn’t make you any less of a fan.

I would like for you to actually show me the numbers using which you are making it a financial disappointment. Please, I beg you to show me the calculation from which this makes less of a profit than BvS or Suicide Squad.

 

[fake]

I’m not impressed by these numbers. I love this movie, but I think the BO performance is a little disappointing. It’s not a failure by any means, but it wasn’t a massive success. Aquaman and Joker making more than this movie is so weird to me. Pandemic or no pandemic, I think this should have made more and I’m a bit disappointed. Outside of fanboy circles, i haven’t seen many of my peers talking about the movie after it released either.

before you guys jump down my throat, I loved the movie. Be real with yourselves. It should have made more, and admitting that it’s a slightly disappointing performance doesn’t make you any less of a fan.

BULL. ****.

How much should it have made? It opened at 134M and will have 3x legs in the US which is top tier for CBMs, and 3x legs OS which again isn't seen for CBMs. 400M domestic and close to 800M WW being not enough despite it being higher than Spider-Man: Homecoming and coming off BvS and JL being called a disappointment is some mental behavior.

 

[The Lazarus Pit]

Whoa lol, like I said. Touchy subject…

I shared my take on the numbers and it doesn’t need to anger people lol

I love this movie but I wouldn’t be saying any of this if it made 800m+. This is Batman, 800m should have been the minimum if this really caught on with audiences. The last two solo Batman movies made over a billion dollars, same with the solo Joker movie.

Something can be profitable but still be a mild disappointment.

I genuinely don’t want to anger people I’m sensing a lot of emotions behind some of these reactions, and I don’t think that is an appropriate response. I’m happy to drop it, I just wanted to share my take on the BO performance. I’m not the only one that feels this way. I’ve never said it bombed or failed or isn’t profitable. Just that it’s a mild disappointment. 800m should’ve been a given when you consider how good the movie was.

 

[SwordOfMorning]

Whoa lol, like I said. Touchy subject…

I shared my take on the numbers and it doesn’t need to anger people lol

I love this movie but I wouldn’t be saying any of this if it made 800m+. This is Batman, 800m should have been the minimum if this really caught on with audiences. The last two solo Batman movies made over a billion dollars, same with the solo Joker movie.

We live in a completely, utterly, profoundly transformed world and cinematic landscape than we did when those films were released. Standards are different now.

Acting like anyone who disagrees with your analysis is being irrational and emotionally driven is also some heavy duty strawmaning. It wouldn't amaze me if the studio is sufficiently delusional they're upset that this didn't make a billion but that would be on them for thinking that was realistic in the first place.

 

[JKKS085]

The Batman is going to end up as the second or third highest grossing blockbuster of the Covid-era. The theater experience landscape is an entirely different playing field now than it was 3 years ago and comparing The Batman to Aquaman or Joker seems factually unreasonable, if not intellectually dishonest.

Now are WB going to turn a profit on that super short theatrical window they imposed on themselves ? I frankly don’t think so but I would argue that it’s not the point in this specific case. The market is changing drastically and at a rate not seen since, I would say ever (the closest may have been the democratisation of television). As long as Covid is affecting/disturbing productions (and inflating their budgets) along with releasing strategies and marketing, both in North America and abroad, and before we can get a better idea at the ratings of and money being channeled into and generated by streaming services, we should thread very carefully on this subject. Streaming is currently where major studios are directing most of their attention and investments and it is still a largely opaque business model.

All this to say that we cannot and should not keep using outdated models to judge wether current releases are successes or not. The game has definitely changed.

 

[SwordOfMorning]

It's also important to factor in that they know the early HBO Max drop will hurt the box office. While they don't seem to have the single-minded focus on HBOMax anymore that lead them to drop their whole 2021 slate on streaming it's clearly a massive priority and The Batman as a piece of streaming content for it is probably viewed as very important.