Homecoming The Box Office Thread - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]494177[/split]

 

[Shikamaru]

Way too early to tell, but it would be fun to look back on people's initial gut feelings and see how they change within the upcoming two years.

I don't think it's a stretch to say Sony's next film wouldn't have performed well, especially if it was the Sinister Six spinoff. More particularly, how do you see this performing compared with TASM2?

 

[Steyin]

I think the rather simple answer is fatigue. I know too many people who are skipping this simply because they are sick of Spider-Man after so many films, including comic film fans.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

GoT might have had an effect on Sunday's gross. Even then SM:H's 2nd weekend drop is still more then TASM2's 2nd weekend drop. SM:H's 2nd weekend drop is still MCU's biggest 2nd weekend drop. SM:H will take a hit against the triple blow from Dunkirk+Valerian+Girls Trip. It'll lose all the IMAX and PLF screens. It'll still recover well tho. I think It'll drop (42-48)% next weekend. It'll certainly drop better than BvS (55%) or MOS (50%) or Skwad (52%).

 

[StormC]

I'm hoping once we get into August movies like Homecoming and Apes will stabilize and stop eating each other.

 

[TheVileOne]

I think the rather simple answer is fatigue. I know too many people who are skipping this simply because they are sick of Spider-Man after so many films, including comic film fans.

Franchise fatigue is real, and it should not be overlooked.

 

[spider-neil]

I think anything over 800m should be seen as success.

Then there are 3 factors to consider for the sequel.

1. The movie has a 92% on rotten tomato so was by and large enjoyed.

2. The movie (imho) has great re-watch value and I think it will do big number on home video. Most of the people who skipped the movie will almost certainly check it out.

3. The movie will be coming out after part 1 of IW and that movie is going to be huge and SM will play a big part.

I think the sequel gets a big bump PROVIDING it's a good movie.

 

[iEquinox]

It seems like some people are comparing apples and oranges. If a movie has a bigger budget, it will need more money to be successful. Homecoming doesn't have a budget that big.
800M will be a huge financial success, without any doubt.
That would make it one of the most successful MCU movies.

$800M WW would be over 4.5x the production budget. (TASM2 made about 2.8x its production budget)

Only 5 previous MCU movies have managed to make 4.5x their production budget:
The Avengers
Iron Man 3
Age of Ultron
Guardians of the Galaxy
Civil War

I don't see any reason to doubt whether one of the MCU's biggest financial successes is a financial success. It's like people are doubting if the MCU as a whole is a financial success. The MCU's total gross is less than 4.5x it's total production budget after all.

Personally I don't think there's even a shadow of a doubt about that, but it seems like not everyone here feels the same lol

 

[Tony Stark]

It's really a common practice though that's been happening for the last 10 years. There's a big movie coming out every weekend, and it's been fairly common for a while. In 2007, Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3, and Pirates 3 all came out in the same month.

That's not correct, Spider-man 3 held two weeks at no. 1, it went head to head with 28 weeks later which made less than 10 mil. It too had a >60% drop but it was free and clear in it's second weekend. What do you think would have happened if it had to go head to head with Pirates or Shrek in it's second weekend?

It's been a typical practice for a while. Speed Racer came out a week after Iron Man, and that was back in 2008. Keep in mind Speed Racer was a huge release from the directors of the Matrix at the time.

Speed Racer was a total flop. Yes there was alot of marketing set for it, but eveyone knew by the tracking that it wasn't going to perform well.

No matter how much you move a film, there's always going to be a big movie coming out that weekend or the following weekend almost assuredly. Just look at the release dates going back especially over the summer. You can find major tentpole releases with major budgets almost virtually every weekend.

Yes films get released every week over the summer, but most studios don't put their tent pole films a week after another big release. Guardians and Wonder Woman benefitted from having zero competition. That doesn't mean there weren't films released, it means that pretty much every film in May and June other than those two vastly under performed.

The bottom line is that it was stupid for Fox to put Apes a week after Spider-man. Had they put it out in August, it probably would have at least come closer to Dawn's numbers. It's pretty clear that while Apes may not be a bomb, it's a huge box office disappointment, and yet many critics have called it the best film of the summer.

 

[Iceman]

Are there many overseas markets left for HC to open in?

 

[Tony Stark]

Are there many overseas markets left for HC to open in?

Japan for sure, not sure what else. It's going to rake in the cash in the Asian markets.

 

[Iceman]

Japan for sure, not sure what else. It's going to rake in the cash in the Asian markets.

Yes, at least that's one area where they don't get fatigued with Spidey.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think the rather simple answer is fatigue. I know too many people who are skipping this simply because they are sick of Spider-Man after so many films, including comic film fans.

I'm skipping it over because it opened to the 2nd highest opening of the franchise and it was stuck in a very bad release position. It's pretty clear that Apes and SMH undercut each others box office performance.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Are there many overseas markets left for HC to open in?

Belgium tomorrow, Spain the 28th and Japan August 11. I think that's it.

 

[Osiris-Rex]

Hasn't opened in China yet.

 

[JOE]

China numbers are going to be important. Trying to find the numbers from previous Spidey movies but no luck...

 

[Iceman]

Belgium tomorrow, Spain the 28th and Japan August 11. I think that's it.

Hasn't opened in China yet.

Thanks.

 

[iEquinox]

China numbers are going to be important. Trying to find the numbers from previous Spidey movies but no luck...

SM: $4,983,142
SM2: $6,102,882
SM3: $18,924,747
TASM: $48,818,164
TASM2: $94,430,000

When the Raimi Spider-Man movies came out China wasn't nearly as big of a market as it is today so that explains the small grosses from back then, and the big increases over the years as the Chinese market exploded.

TASM got a horrible release date as it opened on the same day as TDKR and they butchered eachother at the box office.

For Homecoming $100M is the target. That's roughly what most recent MCU movies make in China. The last MCU movie to make significantly less than $100M in China was Thor: TDW with $55.3M in 2013. All other MCU movies since The Avengers made $85M+ in China.

 

[StormC]

I feel like if Apes came out in August, Homecoming could have had a 50-55M second weekend and Apes could have opened to 60-65M.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Are there many overseas markets left for HC to open in?

Belgium, Spain, China, Japan

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Oh I always knew HOMECOMING was gonna face some competition with its release date. Remember when it was gonna go head to head with DUNKIRK and then they moved it up. And then APES, VALERIAN. Definitely not a free month for Spidey at all. It is the only kind in its genre but still.

I'm not too concerned. It'll have good numbers by the end of its first month.

 

[Iceman]

Belgium, Spain, China, Japan

Thanks. That makes the current OS number look a lot better.

 

[Spider-Ock]

Here's a new article from Mendelson that makes some interesting points:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ce-is-bad-news-for-a-third-hulk/#7879b395320a

...all that fuss (an inclusion into the MCU, a heavily advertised Robert Downey Jr. cameo, solid reviews), and they are going to end up just over/under the number of tickets sold by The Amazing Spider-Man five years ago. We’ve seen this before, on a frankly more frequent basis as the redo/reboot becomes more common. Sometimes the fan base is the fan base and the IP is the IP, and all the new bells and whistles in the world won’t change the outcome.

Maybe an IP can’t be bumped up without a massive change of the guard, especially in the modern era (this isn’t Star Trek 2009 versus Star Trek: The Motion Picture). Give or take special circumstances, a pre-sold IP like Spider-Man may never rise that much higher than The Amazing Spider-Man’s domestic ceiling, if only because we’ve had so many Peter Parker Spider-Man movies since 2002.

Now I would argue that Sony still did right by the character by certainly offering a crowd-pleasing Spider-Man movie for much cheaper than the last two and that folks really like the new Peter Parker is a boon for the brand. And as I've said before, as long as folks like the movie, a Spide-Man: Homecoming that makes about as much as The Amazing Spider-Man qualifies as a win. Nonetheless, once again the new-and-improved reboot is doing about as well (in North America at least) as the last one.

Marvel saw Spider-Man: Homecoming as the glorious return of their prized character to the official Marvel Cinematic Universe. Sony saw a chance to boost a flailing IP and potentially launch a connected universe. But general audiences, specifically those in North America, just saw the sixth Spider-Man movie and third “new” Spider-Man movie in 15 years. You might say… that the writing was on the wall.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I feel like if Apes came out in August, Homecoming could have had a 50-55M second weekend and Apes could have opened to 60-65M.

I think some of you are over-estimating Apes' effect on SM:H's BO. Apes did have an effect and to a small extent, GoT did as well (on Sunday). Still it's not really significant.

I mean WOTPOTA under-performed, it came in lower than Rise's BO (adjusted) and that too without 3D. If anything, SM:H could have benefited being the more family friendly movie. War had high RT rating, critical acclaim, coming off a huge hit in the franchise with Dawn by the same director. It had all going for it to do well. As it turned out WOTPOTA didn't have a good marketing campaign and the audience awareness just wasn't there.

If 50 million is your base number, that'll mean a 57.2% drop from OW. Which will mean SM:H will have one of the best drops among the MCU movies (Only Avengers, GOTG 1 & 2 and Ant-Man had better holds) (Thor and DS doesn't count because they were released in Nov. and had veteran's day softening the 2nd weekend). Frankly SM:H's drop is more in line with a high opening July tentpole. I may be wrong about this but I don't think Apes had a significant effect at all.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Maybe an IP can’t be bumped up without a massive change of the guard, especially in the modern era (this isn’t Star Trek 2009 versus Star Trek: The Motion Picture). Give or take special circumstances, a pre-sold IP like Spider-Man may never rise that much higher than The Amazing Spider-Man’s domestic ceiling, if only because we’ve had so many Peter Parker Spider-Man movies since 2002.

TASM's adjusted number is 297 million and SM:H will top that and will go north of 300 million. TASM3 would have been in the negative without huge OS gross bailing them out. Sony made a smart decision to make a deal with Marvel Studios.