X3 sits on a box office tinderbox (Box Office Prediction thread)

I hate to admit it but the fact is there are more people out there aware of the Da Vinci Code than there are xmen fans. Da Vinci is going to do HUGE. Especially in worldwide box office gross it is going to make truckloads more cash than any other film this summer.

I just hope it doesn't affect X3's box office momentum
 
well i think the general public will love this one they won't have the same reaction to the deaths as the fans they will love all the deaths and action i think this will actually do better than x2 in the cinema plus it is 1 30 mins so will get more showings that the longer 2h 30 mins films like superman.....and its main compeition is cars?lmao it has free run of the box office till superman comes out
 
Check this out about The DaVinci Code.

http://www.filmstew.com/Content/Article.asp?ContentID=14090&Pg=1

"...As the film screened this evening in Cannes for journalists packed into the Debussy Theater, the feeling moved quickly from one of great anticipation to one of, shockingly, great boredom. Ron Howard knows how to ratchet up the tension in a movie; witness Apollo 13 and Backdraft. But here, instead of the film building to a white knuckle conclusion, it was the audience fidgeting as Da Vinci passed the two-hour mark and unveiled the first of its half-dozen endings. So much so that by the time the big climactic moment of the film finally arrived, the audience burst out laughing, as if this were yet another classic bit of Tom Hanks comedy. As the credits rolled, not a single bit of applause was heard.

Afterwards, as critics from around the world poured out of the Debussy, they were swarmed by two dozen camera crews looking, finally, for the first whiff of reaction to the long-awaited adaptation of Dan Brown's mega-bestseller. Used to being on the other side of the camera, these members of the Fifth Estate could only shake their heads in astonishment, complaining about how many times Hanks and Tautou seemed to conveniently avoid capture by French police. Or, how a majority of the two-and-a-half-hour film seemed to be about endless historical exposition, most of which was presented so fast that in the end it seemed to confuse rather than enlighten the audience..."
 
sidkumar said:
I hate to admit it but the fact is there are more people out there aware of the Da Vinci Code than there are xmen fans. Da Vinci is going to do HUGE. Especially in worldwide box office gross it is going to make truckloads more cash than any other film this summer.

I just hope it doesn't affect X3's box office momentum
I'm glad that you brought so much evidence to back this up... :p

-TNC
 
TNC9852002 said:
I'm glad that you brought so much evidence to back this up... :p

-TNC
People will see DaVinci Code once - fans/teens, etc. will see X-3 more than once. Mostly adults are going to see DaVinci Code - kids, teens, adults will see X-3 and probably more than once.
 
I except $100m over the 4 day opening weekend (X2 made $85m over 3 days). After that it depends how well received it is by the general public.
 
narrows101 said:
People will see DaVinci Code once - fans/teens, etc. will see X-3 more than once. Mostly adults are going to see DaVinci Code - kids, teens, adults will see X-3 and probably more than once.

Unfortunately, I think the 'seeing films multiple times' trend is on the decrease due to piracy. Even hardcore fans do not like spending $200 when other's are getting it for free. I'll still support X3 (as long as I like it) by watching in the cinema as many times as I can but not the 20 or so times I would have seen it if it weren't available elsewhere.
 
But he does have another point in how Da Vinci Code probably won't have a general audience as large as X3...

-TNC
 
TNC9852002 said:
But he does have another point in how Da Vinci Code probably won't have a general audience as large as X3...

-TNC

I wasn't arguing against his other point on the Da Vinci Code as I agree with it. I was just making a general statement related to the "seeing films more than once" discussion.
 
narrows101 said:
Check this out about The DaVinci Code.

http://www.filmstew.com/Content/Article.asp?ContentID=14090&Pg=1

"...As the film screened this evening in Cannes for journalists packed into the Debussy Theater, the feeling moved quickly from one of great anticipation to one of, shockingly, great boredom. Ron Howard knows how to ratchet up the tension in a movie; witness Apollo 13 and Backdraft. But here, instead of the film building to a white knuckle conclusion, it was the audience fidgeting as Da Vinci passed the two-hour mark and unveiled the first of its half-dozen endings. So much so that by the time the big climactic moment of the film finally arrived, the audience burst out laughing, as if this were yet another classic bit of Tom Hanks comedy. As the credits rolled, not a single bit of applause was heard.

Afterwards, as critics from around the world poured out of the Debussy, they were swarmed by two dozen camera crews looking, finally, for the first whiff of reaction to the long-awaited adaptation of Dan Brown's mega-bestseller. Used to being on the other side of the camera, these members of the Fifth Estate could only shake their heads in astonishment, complaining about how many times Hanks and Tautou seemed to conveniently avoid capture by French police. Or, how a majority of the two-and-a-half-hour film seemed to be about endless historical exposition, most of which was presented so fast that in the end it seemed to confuse rather than enlighten the audience..."

I was just looking for some reviews and I found 3 or 4 that said pretty much the same thing. Seems like the critics, especially the ones at Cannes, didn't like it much.
 
I'm really uncertain as to how X3 is going to be received by objective critics who aren't simply interested in special effects and fan nods, etc. At best, it will probably be labeled a fun, summer popcorn flick, if I were to guess. I don't think it's going to come off as emotional as was once suggested--most reviews (questionable) hail the action, but are fairly mum on the quality of the story, noting that it could be better.

Regardless, it will probably rake in money--given that Poseidon was a dud, and depending on how well DaVinci code does (i.e., if other critics say DaVinci's bad, and if people listen to those critics) . . . I would say X3 will have a big pull, especially given how well received X2 was (people want more, and won't know too much about the behind the scenes change up mess) . . . not to mention the fact that it will be released on Memorial Day weekend.

That being said, I don't know if X3 pulling in a lot of money is a good thing, if it turns out to be a stinker.
 
i think X3 will make at least the 215 X2 made, i think they're realistically looking around 250, and if it is exceptional and the general public is in the right memorial day weekend mood(i.e. pray for rain) they could reach the 300 million dollar mark, i have no expert opinion but the memorial day weekend usually is one of the biggest for movie goers, and X2 had such a good go over with fans that hopefully this movie will make enough for an X4(which is really what is at the heart of this thread, we all want an X4 and the only way we will get it, is if this flick makes some cash)
 
L0ngsh0t said:
i think X3 will make at least the 215 X2 made, i think they're realistically looking around 250, and if it is exceptional and the general public is in the right memorial day weekend mood(i.e. pray for rain) they could reach the 300 million dollar mark, i have no expert opinion but the memorial day weekend usually is one of the biggest for movie goers, and X2 had such a good go over with fans that hopefully this movie will make enough for an X4(which is really what is at the heart of this thread, we all want an X4 and the only way we will get it, is if this flick makes some cash)

I agree mostly . . . Personally, I don't know how much I want an X4 with the individuals currently helming it. It depends upon the returning cast. I think a lot of X3's success relies heavily on the talent of the original castmembers and not so much the new ones--and a lot of the older ones seem to be out of commission for a fourth film (at least--without going into ridiculous plot measures to bring them back).

There is no comparison in my eyes. The success of this film will rely on McKellen, Janssen, Jackman, Stewart, etc. (all individuals cast by the previous creative team) as opposed to Grammer, Dania, Foster, etc. It's not that I dislike Grammer or Foster, I just haven't found them too convincing (Angel's being upset and making way for the window . . . ouch . . . not the best). I think the dialogue is kind of shaky, but the talent of the previous members is good enough to pull it through . . . not so sure about the newer members yet. So for me, it depends on how well they can pull it off. Thus far, I'm kind of iffy.
 
I have a feeling that if DaVinci Code has a lackluster opening, X3 will be the movie to really kick off the summer.
 
WorthyStevens4 said:
Ah ok.

I have to agree.

RV, Take the Lead, Big Momma's House 2, Madea's Family Reunion... ugh. :down


None of those movies were bad. You just didn't like them.
 
TNC9852002 said:
Pffft...What about Akeelah and the Bee

What??? You must be smoking. That was good movie.
 
I really want this movie to do well if it's good. I feet that X3 should rake in 100 plus million on its opening weekend, with the possiability of reaching 125-135 over the 4 day weekend, but with the low box office takes for MI3, well lower then expected and Poiseden bombing, I'm hoping for the best. No one is sure what is going on with box office. Everyone has opinions, like Cruise is to blame and Poisiden was lack luster, which i had a feeling that wouldn't open big and i said it before it was released that it'll take in about 20-25 million and i was right.

I think I'll go ahead and predict that X3 will make around 60-70 million if the worst fear is the case, which is that patrons are losing interest in moviegoing do to high prices at the theater, the gas prices, and piracy. If it's not the case then i say 115-135 million over the 4 day weekend and i'm being optimistic, now the realistic part of me say it'll do 80-100 million over the 4 day weekend. We'll have to wait and see.
 
65-70 million weekend and weekend+memorial day will be near 87 mill.

its not going to be opening bigger then X2 people.
 
X3 is already on Moviefone's top 5 most requested list! :D

I'm expecting a total near $100 million for it's first 3 days. Not just based on Moviefone. :p

I'm getting a huge feeling with this movie. And add the brilliant strategy of advertising X3 all over the MySpace homepage where over 75 million people will see it, this could be one of the biggest, if not biggest Memorial Day weekends in box office history.
 
PhoenixRising said:
You all forget. The power of the pre-teens. The second largest movie-going audience is the pre-teen. Do you honestly think kids 9-14 want to go see The Davinci Code? Or would they rather see Phoenix demolecularize Xavier?

I agree!!! I mean X3 has huge anticipation, and a lot of movie goers excited to see it!!! But DaVinci Code was read by over 40 milllion people and the bashing it's getting from the Catholic church will only bring a lot of people who want to see what the fuss is all about!!! But X-men has a superior fan base than the Davinici Code!!! X-men has effected audiences from little kids to middle age adults, while the DaVinici Code age group is around mid 20s to middle ages!!! But with so much hype over these 2 films, it's so unpredictible which one will win out!!!:O
 
Weadazoid said:
Well the friday numbers for Posiedon are in and it looks to me like this movie as I predicted a long time ago ss a failure... it failed to over take MI3 and only raised a meager 7 Million on Friday.


People.... the patrons of the mega plexes are waiting for something special, something trully dynamic and action packed.


I still don't think the Code is that movie.... and while I think it will do well.. in the mid 50 to low 60's with the Hedge right there with it next weekend will not be the big weekend of the summer kick off either. The Code and the Hedgee will get people out but I have always felt they divide people and generate good/great numbers as a pair rather then one taking over compleately



Wiating like stick of Dynamite is X3 while it may be a "flawed' movie in some respects I still have no doubts this will be the big movie of Late may and Early June. I still think this is the one people have been wiating for, The Code and the Hedge will get people in the movie going spirit.... X3 will reunite them and others in the following weekend for a tremendous opening.


Detractors will say great Box office numbers do not equate to a great movie and they are right, but we have had such critiques from some nay sayers I find a certain amount of interest in seeing X3 over perform what the negative posters have said in the past about the box office potencial this movie carries.


This movie pops over 90 Million in the 3 day and goes over 100 Million Monday

It should round out in my estimations at about 270 to 300 Million in my opinion
Exactly, I don't think it will make any more than 270 mill though, 300 mill sounds alittle high, I think Revenge made over 340 mill.. If I remember correctly, and that movie had been anticopated for a lonnnnng time.
 
Spidey 2007 said:
65-70 million weekend and weekend+memorial day will be near 87 mill.

its not going to be opening bigger then X2 people.
I think it just might... A lot of people are talking about this movie in my area alone... A lot!
 
Well, I'll be biting my nails when DVC is released on Friday!!!:o
 

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