Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[terry78]

Wow I didn't think Snatched would do that well. I didn't see any promo for it.
Never even saw the trailer before any movies

Women in their 20s-40s usually only go see superhero flicks with their boyfriends or husbands or ocassionally with other women if it caters to them. Otherwise they make parties out of going to see counterprogramming.

 

[MadVillainy]

I know what counter-programming is. It's not always successful. There's always the 3rd option of just not going to the movies, which again I thought would happen because I personally didn't see any marketing and I go to the theaters multiple times a month. But that's just my POV maybe they promoted it a lot on TV or in other cities/states. I was just going by my perspective

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/king-ar...e-galaxy-vol-2-weekend-box-office-1202091662/

Early Sunday AM, 4th update: One of the interesting takeaways from this Mother’s Day weekend in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s complete decimation of Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s King Arthur: Legend of the Sword is that the Disney/Marvel movie will reach close to breakeven in less than three weeks, quite early in its theatrical release, while Guy Ritchie’s medieval mess may not earn back its estimated $100M distribution expenses — and both pics’ negative costs are within 14% of each other (GOTG2 with $200M and King Arthur with $175M).

GOTG2 is looking at a second weekend of $63M per Disney after a Saturday that was +70% over Friday with $27.8M. Many industry estimates believe GOTG2 is much higher between $64M-$66M. By Disney’s measure, the James Gunn pic will be at $246.1M by the end of today. Global is at $630.6M right now for the Marvel sequel.

20th Century Fox is reporting a $17.5M opening for the Amy Schumer-Goldie Hawn combo Snatched after a 29% boost on Saturday over Friday with $6.45M. Many foresee a fantastic hold for the movie of -5% to -6% on Mother’s Day today. Snatched‘s one asset in regards to remaining in theaters is that it’s the only comedy out there until Sony’s Kate McKinnon-Scarlett Johansson Rough Night takes place on June 16.

And King Arthur is falling to the ground with $14.7M for the weekend, after a $5.5M Saturday that’s +4% over its Friday.

One trusted film finance boss told Deadline how enraged they were over Warner Bros. overspend here on King Arthur: “They should have followed the Tom Rothman rule of being fiscally responsible and creatively reckless: Make original IP for a cost effective price. If it works then spend more if necessary on the sequel. King Arthur should have been done for $60M-$80M. Warner Bros. had no reason to spend $175M-plus on this picture. Hell, even Jumanji with The Rock included cost way less. Logan cost $97.1M net. WTF was Warners thinking?…It’s just bad for the business.”

 

[terry78]

They were thinking it was gonna become another franchise. I swear, WB has ****ing DC, Hanna Barbera, the whole of the WB Animation library under their belt, and the thing they want to franchise is King Arthur. When are we getting this Jonny Quest movie?

 

[HammerDown]

Update:

Domestic: 246M
Foreign: 384M
WW: 630M

GOTG on the same period had 176M domestically. 70M increase at this point.

 

[Shadow Moses]

They were thinking it was gonna become another franchise. I swear, WB has ****ing DC, Hanna Barbera, the whole of the WB Animation library under their belt, and the thing they want to franchise is King Arthur. When are we getting this Jonny Quest movie?

WB make very questionable decisions so often. Close to 200m budget for Tarzan. Same for King Arthur. Who in their right mind green-lit those budgets? Both should be 60m-80m at most

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

WB make very questionable decisions so often. Close to 200m budget for Tarzan. Same for King Arthur. Who in their right mind green-lit those budgets? Both should be 60m-80m at most

WB is just hungry for another franchise, and they want to spend blockbuster money to try and make it happen.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yup. WB was desperate for their next Harry Potter. I'm not sure how King Arthur and Tarzan were seen as potential franchise starters but whatever.

And Tarzan didn't do too terrible all things considered. However, they definitely spent way more money on it than they should have.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/king-ar...e-galaxy-vol-2-weekend-box-office-1202091662/

Good to see it bounce back from early estimates. $64-65 million would be an excellent result. Even $63 million is fine.

 

[TheVileOne]

This will definitely surpass the box office of the original, but still not sure it will make it to $1 billion worldwide.

 

[Vincanws]

Just 55M to equal the overseas total for GotG vol 1, which I am guessing may be exceeded by next Fri/Sat... nice.

 

[TheVileOne]

Good to see it bounce back from early estimates. $64-65 million would be an excellent result. Even $63 million is fine.

When you are this type of movie, pretty much anything under a 60 percent drop for the second weekend is a big win.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

When you are this type of movie, pretty much anything under a 60 percent drop for the second weekend is a big win.

Yup.

 

[Wildcard]

Wow I didn't think Snatched would do that well. I didn't see any promo for it.
Never even saw the trailer before any movies

Neither did I. But hopefully it falls off the map quick. With a budget of $42 million, I gotta imagine when it's all said and done that one will not be able to be labeled an actual success.

This will definitely surpass the box office of the original, but still not sure it will make it to $1 billion worldwide.

Had that same thought when I checked the numbers earlier. We could be wrong but at this point I see it probably getting within sniffing distance of $1 billion as opposed to actually crossing the mark.

 

[MadVillainy]

Sure

 

[iEquinox]

Just 55M to equal the overseas total for GotG vol 1, which I am guessing may be exceeded by next Fri/Sat... nice.

Definitely not by next Fri/Sat. It has opened in all markets now, and it made 52.2M OS this weekend, so there's no way it makes more than that on monday through friday.

This will definitely surpass the box office of the original, but still not sure it will make it to $1 billion worldwide.

$1B is pretty much off the table. Even 900M seems very optimistic. It's heading for about 460M OS. Add about 370M DOM and 830M WW is roughly where I would expect it to end up.

Keep in mind that exchange rates have changed quite a lot, and this has a big effect on OS box office. At today's exchange rates, GotG1 would only have made 356M OS, not 440M. So there's definitely significant growth OS for the sequel, even though the low exchange rates make it seem otherwise.

 

[Superhero 101]

Good numbers for gotg2 I hope it gets to 900 m ww

 

[Vincanws]

Definitely not by next Fri/Sat. It has opened in all markets now, and it made 52.2M OS this weekend, so there's no way it makes more than that on monday through friday.

$1B is pretty much off the table. Even 900M seems very optimistic. It's heading.

Oh right, somewhere near it for Monday through Saturday then? 830M WW sounds like a pretty big win for them, if that turns out to he true. I think I said 877M based on an average off some detail another poster highlighted.

 

[Wildcard]

Good numbers for gotg2 I hope it gets to 900 m ww

I think it will. Probably tops out between $925-$950 million.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Wow I didn't think Snatched would do that well. I didn't see any promo for it.
Never even saw the trailer before any movies

It didn't do well. That is not a good number.

 

[MadVillainy]

Well it's better than I expected I should say. As I said, I saw no promotion so I thought it'll completely bomb with 10 mill max

 

[Wildcard]

It didn't do well. That is not a good number.

Not well, per se, but it definitely did a little better than most expected.

 

[TheVileOne]

Definitely not by next Fri/Sat. It has opened in all markets now, and it made 52.2M OS this weekend, so there's no way it makes more than that on monday through friday.


$1B is pretty much off the table. Even 900M seems very optimistic. It's heading for about 460M OS. Add about 370M DOM and 830M WW is roughly where I would expect it to end up.

Keep in mind that exchange rates have changed quite a lot, and this has a big effect on OS box office. At today's exchange rates, GotG1 would only have made 356M OS, not 440M. So there's definitely significant growth OS for the sequel, even though the low exchange rates make it seem otherwise.

I just want it to surpass $330 million domestic and $873 million worldwide

I think people predicting $1 billion for Guardians were definitely over-estimating it. I think those early test screening reports poisoned the box office prediction well. What pushed Civil War over $1 billion was the presence of Iron Man and the other Avengers.

However, I think this gives Marvel safely another feather in its cap since the movie was well liked and still generally got good reviews.

 

[Greenlite]

Heading for 880M WW?

 

[Raiden]

Had that same thought when I checked the numbers earlier. We could be wrong but at this point I see it probably getting within sniffing distance of $1 billion as opposed to actually crossing the mark.

If it's very close to 1B I think Disney will find some creative ways to get it over the hump.