Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at the BoX Office

[psylockolussus]

Without China, Russia, Ukraine and a couple of Middle East countries boosting the boX office numbers, I think $1 billion isn't going to be that reachable compare to 2016 to 2019 for these blockbuster movies.

 

[Iceman]

Hopefully this weekend is a better hold. Thanksgiving should help too.

 

[Iceman]

Without China, Russia, Ukraine and a couple of Middle East countries boosting the boX office numbers, I think $1 billion isn't going to be that reachable compare to 2016 to 2019 for these blockbuster movies.

It certainly makes it a lot more challenging. It’s like a $1.2B (or some other inflated level like that) film of the past now to get to a billion.

 

[psylockolussus]

It certainly makes it a lot more challenging. It’s like a $1.2B (or some other inflated level like that) film of the past now to get to a billion.

Multiverse of Madness just came short with more or less $50 million. Hollywood movies imo, don't need those countriesfor these films to happen, but I also don't mind those countries inflating these boX office numbers. Its just nice to see a film hitting the 1 billion mark.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

Wakanda Forever has officially passed Dr Strange MoM for the very first time in its total for the 12th day of release. I originally predicted it would pass Multiverse in its 3rd wknd and outpace it for the rest of its duration to be the #2 movie of the year in the US (not including Avatar). So far I am looking to be correct as it's already outpacing it before the holiday wknd!!

12 day total (US)
Wakanda Forever - $303,670,596
Dr. Strange MoM- $302,711,302

As for the story in the International markets, although in like for like counties, Wakanda is is slightly ahead of the original Black Panther, its trailing MoM by a bigger gap.

Last weeks 2nd wk total was the 2nd biggest total of the year only behind Top Gun! So in the US u couldn't ask for anything more considering all the circumstances and real life problems the film had to overcome! Best thing it has going for it is no competition till Avatar so it still has a cpl wknds to keep going!

 

[OroroGambitFan]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Nears $350 Million at Domestic Box Office, Dominates Thanksgiving Weekend!

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will pass Love and Thunder’s $343 million domestic haul today, to become the year’s sixth-biggest film!

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Surpasses Iron Man, Shang-Chi at Worldwide Box Office

 

[Stark Bauer]

Without China, Russia, Ukraine and a couple of Middle East countries boosting the boX office numbers, I think $1 billion isn't going to be that reachable compare to 2016 to 2019 for these blockbuster movies.

China alone is at least $100 million. For Kaiju style films such as Pacific Rim, China made up around 50% of the worldwide gross.


Re: BP2, Friday saw a great bump, we could see a very small drop in week 3. Honestly I did not expect such a good hold. So forget $350 mil., $400 million looks like a lock to me now.

i will increase the ceiling for this film’s domestic total from $500 million to $530 million.

I still think it falls under a billion worldwide. Ceiling looking like $900 million right now

 

[psylockolussus]

That would be inline with my prediction.

I voted for $900 million.

 

[Sithborg]

The 3 Day is definitely the much needed smaller drop to put it in good position to overtake MoM. The only issue is that the World Cup may cause issues with the international numbers.

 

[Iceman]

Great hold this weekend. Hopefully it can stabilise now.

 

[Iceman]

The 3 Day is definitely the much needed smaller drop to put it in good position to overtake MoM. The only issue is that the World Cup may cause issues with the international numbers.

Yeah the World Cup at the moment is every day and 4 matches a day. Football fans aren’t going to the cinema until we start getting days in between for the knockout stages.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

The 3 Day is definitely the much needed smaller drop to put it in good position to overtake MoM. The only issue is that the World Cup may cause issues with the international numbers.

Are u talking about it overtaking Strange worldwide? Cuz it overtook Strange before the holiday wknd in the US and increased the gap and is now tracking 7% ahead. I don't wanna be the 'I told u so type' but I did...lmao I predicted during the first wk that by the 3rd wk it would overtake Strange.

As for internationally, up to this point, it's performing great. The only 1 country u see a big difference trending down is with S.Korea but everywhere else the numbers are strong! The 2nd wk drop internationally was only 49% which was amazing-- it held much better internationally than it did in the states. It sure what the % for the 3rd wk but I'll try to find out.

China played a huge role for MCU Phase 3 but that really wasn't the case for the original Black Panther it only did 65 million which is good but that's on the lower side for the MCU. So not having China isn't as big a deal but the combo of China with the other countries it's not playing at does (cumulatively) hurt the worldwide box office.

475-535 million US
395-450 million US

that's my prediction range-- so still a chance for a billion but likely in the 900 million range (also a small possibility to end up in the 850 million range).

anyway U slice it that's a bonafide and profitable hit. Never was going to match the original and doesn't need a billion to be super successful!

 

[OroroGambitFan]

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Passes $675 Million at the Global Box Office
BY RAHUL MALHOTRA

By comparison, the first Black Panther film had made $501 million domestically by the end of its third weekend. Also directed by Wakanda Forever’s Ryan Coogler, the first Black Panther ended its domestic run with a stunning $700 million — the sixth-biggest haul of all time — and ultimately made $1.3 billion globally. The sequel will likely not match those numbers, simply because the first Black Panther was a touchstone moment in mainstream moviemaking, and is credited with having significantly altered the superhero landscape.

 

[Superhero 101]

Good numbers I can see it hopefully crossing Thor 4 and Batman

 

[OroroGambitFan]

Good numbers I can see it hopefully crossing Thor 4 and Batman

No "hopefully" needed it's definitely passing those two titles! I would say it's a lock for 800 million that's the absolute bottom basement projection and those two movies didn't get out of the 700 million range

 

[Stark Bauer]

Are u talking about it overtaking Strange worldwide? Cuz it overtook Strange before the holiday wknd in the US and increased the gap and is now tracking 7% ahead. I don't wanna be the 'I told u so type' but I did...lmao I predicted during the first wk that by the 3rd wk it would overtake Strange.

As for internationally, up to this point, it's performing great. The only 1 country u see a big difference trending down is with S.Korea but everywhere else the numbers are strong! The 2nd wk drop internationally was only 49% which was amazing-- it held much better internationally than it did in the states. It sure what the % for the 3rd wk but I'll try to find out.

China played a huge role for MCU Phase 3 but that really wasn't the case for the original Black Panther it only did 65 million which is good but that's on the lower side for the MCU. So not having China isn't as big a deal but the combo of China with the other countries it's not playing at does (cumulatively) hurt the worldwide box office.

475-535 million US
395-450 million US

that's my prediction range-- so still a chance for a billion but likely in the 900 million range (also a small possibility to end up in the 850 million range).

anyway U slice it that's a bonafide and profitable hit. Never was going to match the original and doesn't need a billion to be super successful!

MCU films usually do over $100 million in China. BP was the anomaly because historically they do not come out in droves to see predominantly African led films.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Expect a steep drop off this weekend.
I am estimating $8-10 million total for BP2 this weekend.

On Friday BP2 is averaging just slightly above $1000 per screen- falling below $1K per screen is typically the death knell for big blockbusters that are front loaded. This is cause for concern because it looks like its box office total will come to a screeching halt in the next 4 weeks and ultimately slow to a trickle before the end of January.

The release of Avatar 2 only exacerbates the situation for BP2 as it will take many of its screens the weekend of release. I expect BP2 to retain around 1000 screens possibly less by that time and that will slow down the income substantially.

Thus I will once again adjust my predictions:

$445 million total domestic

$350 million total international

$795 million total worldwide

Profitable but compared to the previous entry’s total of $700 million, a relative disappointment. I hope they make a BP3 and recast Tchalla/have his son take up the mantle. Historically, male led superhero films perform better financially, but Disney as of late does not seem concerned for what hardcore fans want

 

[Chesterfield]

This isn't even about what the hard-core fans want. Coogler and the producers flat out decided they weren't going to recast because they weren't capable of acknowledging another actor cast as T'Challa. As such, the movie suffered for it. A T'Challa-less BP movie is not it and now the franchise is performing like a Thor movie. How sad.

 

[Holy Slapper]

This isn't even about what the hard-core fans want. Coogler and the producers flat out decided they weren't going to recast because they weren't capable of acknowledging another actor cast as T'Challa. As such, the movie suffered for it. A T'Challa-less BP movie is not it and now the franchise is performing like a Thor movie. How sad.

It's the cast that couldn't have worked with another actor. Nate Moore said it himself.

 

[Frodo]

But both things can be true.

The cast could have had a hard time accepting another actor playing T'Challa ,the producers also couldn't see someone else in the part.

They probably both agreed that they shouldn't recast the part.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

These box office numbers have been pitiful. People really over predicted it. Especially here.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Saturday’s numbers were a surprise lol

final estimate:
Domestic $430-440
International $380-390
Worldwide $810-830

 

[Stark Bauer]

But both things can be true.

The cast could have had a hard time accepting another actor playing T'Challa ,the producers also couldn't see someone else in the part.

They probably both agreed that they shouldn't recast the part.

i completely agree with their sentiments. Hopefully they correct course for part 3 and include Doom next time too lol - might as well throw the F4 in there as well since Namor and BP usually appear in F4 comics

 

[Iceman]

i completely agree with their sentiments. Hopefully they correct course for part 3 and include Doom next time too lol - might as well throw the F4 in there as well since Namor and BP usually appear in F4 comics

No complaints here if they want to go that route. Would be a massive event film if so.

 

[Stark Bauer]

No complaints here if they want to go that route. Would be a massive event film if so.

Captain America Civil War was like a mini Avengers movie - they can turn a Black Panther sequel into a mini Avengers/Fantastic Four movie event - should help the MCU feel more interconnected like in earlier phases