Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[Zyraquis]

Also what it makes in eurozone now is far less than what it made for the same amount back in late 2017/early 2018 (for every 100m euro made it was 120m dollars, now is 100m dollars). It’s even worse for yen earned but since Japan is small MCU market it is okay.

I dont know any analysts or reputable trades, not to mention studio internal forecast, did expect it to make $1bn given all circumstances (pandemic, loss in major intl markets) even before the critics controlled the narratives. Maybe there are and I just am not aware of them. Most billion expectation I read were from fans who believed the character was strong enough to do it, without much to support other than perceptions from 2 films whereas Thor was one of the assembled characters.

Could it have made more if certain things were different? No doubt, most films could, but it’s anyones guess how much more.

 

[HammerDown]

Cume. total - $37.14M

 

[Yellow Cyclone]

This was never going to make a billion without China. The numbers never supported such a growth. Frankly, beating Ragnarok's global total (adjusted for missing countries) is in serious doubt. Frankly, hitting $700 is a push I don't think it has in it.

Its not a disaster financially; However, we are dealing with a corporate entity that may not be happy with the results.

good

then maybe they'll rein in their tone a little and listen to what a lot of their fans have been saying for ages

 

[HammerDown]

Thunder has now earned $276.2M domestically. Compared to the equivalent point in release, that’s:

• +90% above 2011’s Thor ($145.3M)
• +64% above 2013’s Thor: The Dark World($167.9M)
• +11% above 2017’s Thor: Ragnarok($247.2M)
• -19% below May’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($342.7M)
• -8% below March’s The Batman ($300.0M)

 

[HammerDown]

BO……… TLT 3wkn — Rag 3wkn — Rag Total

U.K……….. 31.5M —— (34M) —— (40.9M)
Australia…. 25.5M —— (20.3M) —— (26.9M)
Mexico…… 23.2M —— (19.1M) —— (21.2M)
S. Korea…. 22.3M —— (30.9M) —— (35.1M)
Brazil…….. 17.2M —— (24.1M) —— (30.4M)
India……… 15.6M —— (11.2M) —— (11.8M)
France…… 13.9M —— (15M) —— (21.2M) *
Germany… 12.8M —— (15.9M) —— (19.0M)
Indonesia.. 11.7M —— (11.3M) —— (11.7M)

* 2nd weekend comparison.

In green the countries where TLT is so far outperforming Ragnarok.

 

[HammerDown]

Some common sense…

Thor: Love and Thunder earned another $22.1 million (-53%) in its third weekend. That’s a drop right between Black Widow (which dropped 55% while being concurrently available on Disney+ for an extra $30) and Spider-Man: Homecoming (-49% from a $117 million debut and $44 million second-weekend gross). That is, in terms of long-term guestimates, frustratingly inconclusive. Still, it’s not rebounding like Ant-Man and the Wasp (-43% after a 61% second-weekend drop), but it has earned $276.2 million in 17 days of domestic release. Its global cume is now up to $598 million. The Chris Hemsworth/Natalie Portman MCU sequel still earned $54 million worldwide this weekend. That suggests a final cume of $310-$320 million domestic and $710-$720 million worldwide.

That’s essentially tied with Thor: Ragnarok’s $315 million domestic cume ($321 million adjusted for inflation) and Thor 3’s $712 million global cume sans China and Russia ($854 million all-in in late 2017). This isn’t a Batman & Robin-level crash. I remain amused at the “Marvel is doomed!” takes I’ve seen as A) Thor 4 is going to earn as much as Thor 3, B) Doctor Strange 2 took a 65% jump (sans Russia and China) from Doctor Strange ($677 million all-in back in 2016), C) Doctor Strange 2 is the third-biggest non-Iron Man/no Spider-Man MCU flick behind Black Panther ($1.346 billion) and Captain Marvel ($1.128 billion). Had China and Russia been in play, Doctor Strange 2 would be flirting with $1.13 billion, and this entire conversation would be even more absurd.

Weekend Box Office: ‘Thor 4’ And ‘Minions 2’ Pass $600 Million Worldwide

 

[Filmfreak]

Yeah it's no disaster by any means, just kind of an underwhelming box office all things considered. I honestly don't think it's particularly alarming for Disney yet, but with the goodwill Ragnarok had managed to build after the mediocre reception of the first two films, and all the popular characters that they crammed in Love and Thunder, I'm pretty sure they expected to make more than that now, even without China and Russia. Let's not forget that the movie cost 70 million more than the previous one.

 

[HammerDown]

For those still doubting Thor’s popularity…



Also when the teaser for Ragnarok came out back in 2017 it was the most watched trailer by Disney/Marvel ever in 24 hours with 136M.

 

[HammerDown]

3rd Monday

DS: MOM - 3.3M
SM: H - 3.3M
Thor: L&T - 2.9M
Ragnarok - 2.4M

At the same time in each film’s box office run:
Thor: Love & Thunder - 276M (+29M)
Thor: Ragnarok - 247M

 

[metaphysician]

No one's saying it's nothing to sneeze at, but for as many folks who say that MCU films nowadays are guaranteed billion dollar makers, pandemic or not, now you look at the conversations on both Multiverse of Madness and Thor and it's more 'Yeah, they're making money, but they could've definitely made more.'

I think the key mistake would be the "pandemic or no" part, not the "guaranteed billion" part. I mean, no, the Marvel name alone doesn't quite *guarantee* billion dollar revenue, but its worth a *lot*. Its just not enough to overcome major systemic headwind and a global entertainment market that hasn't even come close to stabilizing into its prior status quo.

Basically, figuring that the Marvel name value is enough to overcome all ordinary factors was probably fine. We just aren't dealing with anything one might have called "ordinary" factors ( and might not for anytime soon ).

 

[Sithborg]

For those still doubting Thor’s popularity…



Also when the teaser for Ragnarok came out back in 2017 it was the most watched trailer by Disney/Marvel ever in 24 hours with 136M.

And how is that translating into the box office?

 

[HammerDown]

And how is that translating into the box office?

As with everything, it translates well when the project is well received.

 

[HammerDown]

3rd Monday

DS: MOM - 3.3M
SM: H - 3.3M
Thor: L&T - 2.9M
Ragnarok - 2.4M

At the same time in each film’s box office run:
Thor: Love & Thunder - 276M (+29M)
Thor: Ragnarok - 247M

3rd Tuesday

SM: H - 4.1M
Thor: L&T - 3.6M
Ragnarok - 3.4M
DS: MOM - 3M

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

3rd Tuesday

SM: H - 4.1M
Thor: L&T - 3.6M
Ragnarok - 3.4M
DS: MOM - 3M

Are these world wide numbers or just domestic?

 

[HammerDown]

Are these world wide numbers or just domestic?

Domestic.

 

[HammerDown]

Thor: Love and Thunder takes the top spot for the third week in a row with $4.32M, bringing its box office cume to $37.88M.

 

[HammerDown]

3rd Monday

DS: MOM - 3.3M
SM: H - 3.3M
Thor: L&T - 2.9M
Ragnarok - 2.4M

3rd Tuesday

SM: H - 4.1M
Thor: L&T - 3.6M
Ragnarok - 3.4M
DS: MOM - 3M

3rd Wednesday

Ragnarok - 4M
SM: H - 2.7M
DS: MOM - 2.7M
Thor: L&T - 2.6M

 

[HammerDown]

3rd Monday

DS: MOM - 3.3M
SM: H - 3.3M
Thor: L&T - 2.9M
Ragnarok - 2.4M

3rd Tuesday

SM: H - 4.1M
Thor: L&T - 3.6M
Ragnarok - 3.4M
DS: MOM - 3M

3rd Wednesday

Ragnarok - 4M
SM: H - 2.7M
DS: MOM - 2.7M
Thor: L&T - 2.6M

3rd Thursday

Ragnarok - 3.5M
SM:H - 2.7M
Thor: L&T - 2.5M
DS:MOM - 2.3M

3rd Friday

Ragnarok - 6.7M
DS:MOM - 4.5M
SM:H - 3.9M
Thor: L&T - 3.7M
——//——
4th weekend totals:

Ragnarok - 16.8M
DS: MOM - 16M
SM: H - 13.2M

Thor: L&T - ?

 

[Evil Twin]

Saturday morning projections are saying that Thor is only off 41% for this weekend. That's a good indicator of stability.

With a month of school's out weekdays left and no direct competition, I think a final domestic total between $330 million and $350 million looks likely. And I'd probably lean towards the higher end as outside of Lightyear movies are showing good legs this summer. Ridiculous legs in the cases of Top Gun and Elvis.

 

[InCali]

Saturday morning projections are saying that Thor is only off 41% for this weekend. That's a good indicator of stability.

With a month of school's out weekdays left and no direct competition, I think a final domestic total between $330 million and $350 million looks likely. And I'd probably lean towards the higher end as outside of Lightyear movies are showing good legs this summer. Ridiculous legs in the cases of Top Gun and Elvis.

Haven't had a chance to calc it out, but that doesn't sound unreasonable. The 40% drop is pretty good. Maybe it'll show the same good, late legs of MoM.

I think Taika went a little overboard on this one. Overall, I liked the movie, but would like to see a different tone with Thor in the future. I liked the thoughtful, gentle Thor of the early comics.

 

[Iceman]

Saturday morning projections are saying that Thor is only off 41% for this weekend. That's a good indicator of stability.

With a month of school's out weekdays left and no direct competition, I think a final domestic total between $330 million and $350 million looks likely. And I'd probably lean towards the higher end as outside of Lightyear movies are showing good legs this summer. Ridiculous legs in the cases of Top Gun and Elvis.

Good to hear that it’s stabilising. Hopefully it can towards that higher number.

 

[Iceman]

No troubles Down Under.

 

[HammerDown]

‘DC League Of Super-Pets’ Flying To $23M Opening

3.) Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) 3,650 (-720) theaters, Fri. $3.75M (-41%), 3-day $13.1M (-41%)/Total $301.5M /Wk 4

Ragnarok - 16.8M
DS: MOM - 16M
SM: H - 13.2M
Thor: L&T - “13.1M”

So, once again, very much in line with Spider: Homecoming. Results for both films:

Thor: Love and Thunder - 301M (+23M)
Spider-Man: Homecoming - 278M

TLT has been losing a bit of steam in the recent dailies to SM:H. Also final domestic totals:

Thor: Love and Thunder - ?
Spider-Man: Homecoming - 334M

Last but not least SM:H scored 314M by its 45th day and if the D+ release is around the same time then 325 to 330M would probably be my final guess. Ragnarok’s domestic total was 315M.

 

[HammerDown]

 

[HammerDown]

Worldwide:

1st weekend - 300M
2nd weekend - 500M
3rd weekend - 600M
4th weekend - 660M
5th weekend - ?

So yeh it should be around 700M by the end of next weekend.

Thor Franchise Box Office (- China & Russia)

Thor: Ragnarok - 718M
Thor: Love and Thunder - 661M (Ongoing)
Thor: The Dark World - 582M
Thor - 443M