Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[NotNickFury]

Dr Strange has done pretty well.
$954 million dollars is nothing to sneeze at.
Especially, when you consider that the original film made about 677 million.

No one's saying it's nothing to sneeze at, but for as many folks who say that MCU films nowadays are guaranteed billion dollar makers, pandemic or not, now you look at the conversations on both Multiverse of Madness and Thor and it's more 'Yeah, they're making money, but they could've definitely made more.'

 

[Prison Mike]

The ones that made a billion dollars had China though, right?

 

[Prison Mike]

WBD just did that with Elvis.

The 45 day window is an experiment and studios are still figuring out what's optimal. Another 2 weeks is 60 days and that's still a fairly quick turnaround. I fully expect that studios will ultimately settle somewhere between 45 and 90 days based on the data they're receiving. They want it to be long enough to justify people hurrying out to the theaters and not shortening the legs substantially, but not too long that people have moved on when it hits streaming.

Really, I kind of think that the best method is a case by case basis. Obviously, Paramount would have been foolish to announce a 45 day window for Top Gun: Maverick. Something smaller, and no big deal.

Are they going to put Elvis out on HBO Max after 45 days?

 

[Evil Twin]

Are they going to put Elvis out on HBO Max after 45 days?

No. They're holding Elvis in theaters until they're good and ready. Which I take as a tacit admission that The Batman came out on HBO Max too soon.

 

[Iceman]

No one's saying it's nothing to sneeze at, but for as many folks who say that MCU films nowadays are guaranteed billion dollar makers, pandemic or not, now you look at the conversations on both Multiverse of Madness and Thor and it's more 'Yeah, they're making money, but they could've definitely made more.'

A lot of missing territories though compared to before, China, Russia, Ukraine and at least somewhere in the Middle East. It would have made a fair bit over a billion with those. But yeah, both MoM and L&T left money on the table regardless.

 

[Prison Mike]

No. They're holding Elvis in theaters until they're good and ready. Which I take as a tacit admission that The Batman came out on HBO Max too soon.

Do you know where you read. I couldn’t find confirmation. I just read an Esquire article that said it would most likely come to streaming by August 8th but that’s about it.

 

[Evil Twin]

Do you know where you read. I couldn’t find confirmation. I just read an Esquire article that said it would most likely come to streaming by August 8th but that’s about it.

I've read it in several places, mostly Twitter. But, as of today, Elvis doesn't have an HBO Max release date. They'll probably announce a release date but won't announce that they don't have a release date yet.

Everything Coming To (And Leaving) HBO And HBO Max In August (uproxx.com)

 

[Evil Twin]

Getting on topic, weekend 3 is going to be a key weekend to show whether TLT is stabilizing, which bodes well for the rest of the summer, or is in freefall. Other Marvel films have recovered after a big 2nd weekend drop, and summer weekdays are an underappreciated part of box office.

 

[HammerDown]

Box Office: ‘Nope’ Sees $6.4M In Thursday Previews – Deadline

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder led Thursday among regular films in release with an estimated $3.8M at 4,375 theaters, -15% from Wednesday for a running two week total of $254M, 13% ahead of Thor: Ragnarok versus the same time frame.

 

[Iceman]

This coming weekend will be very interesting.

 

[HammerDown]

11th day

SM: H - 5.4M
Thor: L&T - 5.3M
DS: MOM - 4.8M
GOTG - 4.7M
Ragnarok - 3.6M

12th day

SM: H - 7.5M
GOTG - 6.6M
Thor: L&T - 6.4M
DS: MOM - 5.2M
Ragnarok - 4.4M

13th day

SM: H - 4.9M
GOTG - 4.8M
Thor: L&T - 4.5M
DS: MOM - 3.9M
Ragnarok - 2.9M

14th day

SM: H - 4.4M
GOTG - 4.2M
Thor: L&T - 3.9M
DS: MOM - 3.8M
Ragnarok - 2.4M

 

[HammerDown]

3rd weekend

DS: MOM - 32.3M
GOTG - 25.1M
SM: H - 22.1M
Ragnarok - 21.6M

Thor: L&T - ?
Maybe something around 22M.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Box Office: ‘Nope’ Sees $6.4M In Thursday Previews – Deadline

Yeah; Nope is getting rave reviews. Will definitely impact TLT this weekend.

 

[Holy Slapper]

Yeah; Nope is getting rave reviews. Will definitely impact TLT this weekend.

Doesn't look like it:

Nope

Audience Score surprisingly low, though it's only 500+.

 

[Sithborg]

This coming weekend will be very interesting.

Honestly, the next week is what I am looking at. Very good chance that Thor comes in 3rd during the weekdays.

 

[HammerDown]

13% ahead of Thor: Ragnarok

Ragnarok scored 315M domestic.
So if TLT continues with this gap it would add up to something around 350M domestic.

 

[InCali]

Doesn't look like it:

Nope

Audience Score surprisingly low, though it's only 500+.

If I had to guess, I’d say it ends up around 70 to 73% in the critics section. Generally speaking, the reviews tend to drop. That is a pretty low audience score. I find that sort of surprising also. I do want to go see it though.

 

[Evil Twin]

If I had to guess, I’d say it ends up around 70 to 73% in the critics section. Generally speaking, the reviews tend to drop. That is a pretty low audience score. I find that sort of surprising also. I do want to go see it though.

Generally, what I'm hearing is that the movie goes off in some directions that don't necessarily directly tie into the plot. Which is the type of complaint that usually goes away once people get used to what it is, instead of what they think it should be.

 

[JKKS085]

Elevated horror always gets lower scores with the GA, for Peele this has been the case ever since Get Out. Has to do with how they tend to subvert audience expectations.
In any case those movies don’t fail or succeed on the same scale as tentpoles, even when they break out, I don’t think it’s going to affect L&T all that much.

 

[HammerDown]

Weekend Box Office Forecast: Jordan Peele's Nope (Updated with $6.4M Preview Analysis) - Boxoffice

BOP is saying 20.4M for the weekend.

While Deadline is also saying:

In second at the domestic box office this weekend, Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Love & Thunder looks to do $5.7M in its third Friday at 4,370 theaters, off 58% from a week ago for an estimated weekend between $19M-20M, and running total of $274.5M.

 

[Evil Twin]

Off 58% would be worrying for a third weekend. It certainly would indicate that it's not going to have long legs. It's probably going to start losing theaters too. Would make me think Disney+ is coming near that 45 day mark.

 

[HammerDown]

Jordan Peele’s ‘Nope’ Still Seeing Around $45M Stateside Start – Saturday Box Office

2.) Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) 4,370 (-5) theaters, Fri. $6.4M (-54%), , 3-day $21.2M (-54%)/Total $275.3M /Wk 3

3rd weekend

DS: MOM - 32.3M
GOTG - 25.1M
SM: H - 22.1M
Ragnarok - 21.6M
Thor: L&T - “21.2M”

So that comparison with SM: H seems to be holding well. After this weekend TLT will have 24M more than SM:H which ended its domestic run with 334M.

 

[HammerDown]

Friday Box Office: ‘Thor 4’ Dives As ‘Top Gun 2’ And ‘Minions 2’ Hold Firm

In holdover news for Friday, Thor: Love and Thunder earned $6.398 million (-54%) on its third Friday, bringing its 15-day domestic total to $260.519 million. In terms of third-Friday drops, that’s closer to Black Widow (-57%) than Spider-Man: Homecoming (-49%) or Ant-Man and the Wasp (-43%). So yes, that’s not an ideal figure in terms of early-July MCU titles, which tend to open big, drop hard in weekend two and then recover in weekend three. That isn’t happening here, at least not yet, with a likely $22 million (-52%) third weekend gross and $276 million 17-day cume. That’s right between Black Widow (which dropped 55% while being concurrently available on Disney+ for an extra $30) and Spider-Man: Homecoming (-49% from a $117 million debut and $44 million second-weekend gross), which is frustratingly inconclusive.

However, we’re still looking at a fourth Thor movie that should end up just over/under the $315 million total of Taika Waititi’s Thor: Ragnarök in raw domestic earnings. That’s damn good for any fourth entry of any franchise. Worldwide is a little more complicated because China and Russia aren’t in play this time out. Thor 3 earned $854 million worldwide in 2017 but around $712 million sans those territories. Waititi’s Thor: Love and Thunder should have around $585-$600 million worldwide by tomorrow night and could still hit that benchmark in the end. Again, it’s not my favorite MCU movie, and word-of-mouth has been more mixed than for, say, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, but the Chris Hemsworth/Natalie Portman/Christian Bale/Tessa Thompson action fantasy is still performing well by any rational standard.

 

[psylockolussus]

The ones that made a billion dollars had China though, right?

I didn't.

 

[Yellow Cyclone]

Friday Box Office: ‘Thor 4’ Dives As ‘Top Gun 2’ And ‘Minions 2’ Hold Firm

Cruise is just the goat

Amazing tbqh