Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[writer0327]

Not being as successful as Jurassic World and Minions isn't really much of a criticism.

I don't know if we're seeing weakness, as much as the fact that Thor isn't Spider-Man or Iron Man as portrayed by RDJ. Hemsworth isn't Tom Cruise as a box office draw. And Thor isn't suddenly going to become more popular on his 4th sequel. Especially on a film that's gotten more criticism than the normal Marvel film. It may be that the range of the MCU these days is between $600 million and $1 billion.

Unless Black Adam and Shazam 2 outperform Thor, I wouldn't be particularly concerned about the MCU at the box office. The MCU is still likely to have 3 of the top 8 from Hollywood at the box office this year. The failure of Lightyear should be much more concerning to Disney.

With the over-proliferation of MCU content, and with how fast Dr Strange went to D+, along with this movie wasn't connected from any major upcoming event film, Thor didn't feel like it had much in the way of importance to it.

Disney probably doesn't care about the box office results (yet), but they should be cautious about making the MCU feel watered down.

 

[JKKS085]

I’ve said it for MoM, I’ll say it again for L&T but if Marvel Studios wants to max out on the box office returns of their theatrical releases, they need to drop the 45 days window OR just make movies you can’t miss in theaters. I’m sure there is an overall strategy here and wanting to make D+ more attractive isn’t necessarily a bad thing but you’re not going to get casual viewers to see a mid-tier movie in theaters anymore when they can watch it in the comfort of their living rooms 6 weeks later.

Then again there is nothing inherently alarming about those numbers but the overall trend this year suggests that they are leaving money on the table.

 

[HammerDown]

Thor: Love & Thunder takes the top spot again for the 2nd week with $8.83M, bringing the cume to $33.56M.

 

[HammerDown]

1st weekend - 300M
2nd weekend - 500M
3rd weekend - 600M ?

Talking worldwide here. By each weekend the total amounted to that number so I wonder if it will hit 600M following that trend of 300/200/100.

Domestically it’s probably going to do around 20M for the weekdays and probably around 20M for the weekend, so around 40M total and I wonder how much it will bring in internationally through the week and weekend. France should contribute significantly because it’s their first week/2nd weekend and then the question is how much can those countries that are over performing(In comparison to Ragnarok) can add to that total plus the usual remaining big markets.

 

[Zyraquis]

But both Jurassic and Minions are strong franchises in their own rights, it’s not surprising that they are making more. Both made more than Ragnarok by a good margin (WW). The only thing is the popularity of Thor is below expectation after Phase 3. This is the first test and while he is still popular, future expectation should be tampered. Of course the perceived quality of the film itself is also a factor.

 

[HammerDown]

But both Jurassic and Minions are strong franchises in their own rights, it’s not surprising that they are making more. Both made more than Ragnarok by a good margin (WW). The only thing is the popularity of Thor is below expectation after Phase 3. This is the first test and while he is still popular, future expectation should be tampered. Of course the perceived quality of the film itself is also a factor.

It’s true that Minions and the JW franchise are strong really strong franchises.

Regarding Thor, he’s a hugely popular character. Right now in the MCU second only to Spider-Man. I would argue that even with a lukewarm reception the decent results are in good part because of the good will generated from Ragnarok, IW and to a certain extent AEG.

 

[Prison Mike]

I’ve said it for MoM, I’ll say it again for L&T but if Marvel Studios wants to max out on the box office returns of their theatrical releases, they need to drop the 45 days window OR just make movies you can’t miss in theaters. I’m sure there is an overall strategy here and wanting to make D+ more attractive isn’t necessarily a bad thing but you’re not going to get casual viewers to see a mid-tier movie in theaters anymore when they can watch it in the comfort of their living rooms 6 weeks later.

Then again there is nothing inherently alarming about those numbers but the overall trend this year suggests that they are leaving money on the table.

I think the theatrical window is a bit of an excuse. The most important thing, IMO, is that you need to make the audience feel that they NEED to see this in theaters. They will come, regardless of the window, if the movie is good enough. From what I read, this movie is more self contained and doesn’t really push the overall MCU in any direction. So I can see why people would want to wait…and they would probably wait if the window was 90 days too.

 

[HammerDown]

I think the theatrical window is a bit of an excuse. The most important thing, IMO, is that you need to make the audience feel that they NEED to see this in theaters. They will come, regardless of the window, if the movie is good enough. From what I read, this movie is more self contained and doesn’t really push the overall MCU in any direction. So I can see why people would want to wait…and they would probably wait if the window was 90 days too.

This film opens a ton of doors into other pockets of the MCU though. I could easily see the seeds planted here pave the way for the MCU’s overall future, special when we take into account what was already established or hinted at in the Eternals, Moonknight, Doctor Strange: MOM… There’s a ton of Easter eggs in this film.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I think the theatrical window is a bit of an excuse. The most important thing, IMO, is that you need to make the audience feel that they NEED to see this in theaters. They will come, regardless of the window, if the movie is good enough. From what I read, this movie is more self contained and doesn’t really push the overall MCU in any direction. So I can see why people would want to wait…and they would probably wait if the window was 90 days too.

Well I know I won't be rushing to see the movie again. With Ragnarok and even MoM I couldn't wait to see them again. With L&T I will probably wait for a sale even with the home release. I did similar with Eternals in that I still haven't bought the home release and won't until it's on sale.

 

[NotNickFury]

I’ve said it for MoM, I’ll say it again for L&T but if Marvel Studios wants to max out on the box office returns of their theatrical releases, they need to drop the 45 days window OR just make movies you can’t miss in theaters. I’m sure there is an overall strategy here and wanting to make D+ more attractive isn’t necessarily a bad thing but you’re not going to get casual viewers to see a mid-tier movie in theaters anymore when they can watch it in the comfort of their living rooms 6 weeks later.

Then again there is nothing inherently alarming about those numbers but the overall trend this year suggests that they are leaving money on the table.

Neither Disney nor any company with a streaming platform would do that when they see how these movies ending up on their platforms translates to revenue for said platform. Not to mention the convenience factor for most audiences, especially families. I don't see the 45 day window going away anytime soon.

At some point, maybe, given how Disney moved from Premium Access to the 45 day window. But not right now. Especially since, besides maybe No Way Home, none of Phase 4's films have felt like 'Oh, I MUST see this in theaters!' Like you said, casual viewers won't watch a mid-tier film in the cinema when it'll be at home sooner than expected.

 

[Filmfreak]

Won't a film still bring revenue in a platform after 60-90 days? Where else are people who didn't bother going to a cinema going to watch it? Is public interest being wiped away completely after a certain amount of weeks?

 

[JKKS085]

I think the theatrical window is a bit of an excuse. The most important thing, IMO, is that you need to make the audience feel that they NEED to see this in theaters. They will come, regardless of the window, if the movie is good enough. From what I read, this movie is more self contained and doesn’t really push the overall MCU in any direction. So I can see why people would want to wait…and they would probably wait if the window was 90 days too.

Yep that’s what I said. However and I’m certainly not making excuses for how the movie is performing (I think I made that clear in my post) but long term this strategy is going to affect their bottom line even for must see movies (albeit at the margins). Now maybe the strategy of driving up subscribers for D+ is worth it but at some point, when their numbers start peaking, they won’t be able to easily go back while their audience expects movies to drop on streaming 6 weeks after release.

One noteworthy things is that the 2 highest performers since theaters returned to generally normal operations didn’t follow that trend and the other acclaimed blockbuster released in the same timeframe but constrained by the 45 days window (The Batman) fell way short of their numbers.

I don’t think this model is 100% sustainable in the long run. Short term and regardless of reception it’s going to accelerate the trend of top heavy MCU performers with fans/regulars flocking to see their movies on opening weekend and more casual viewers weighing their options maybe more carefully than before. Those 65-68% drops are looking like they’re becoming the norm for these movies.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

I think the theatrical window is a bit of an excuse. The most important thing, IMO, is that you need to make the audience feel that they NEED to see this in theaters. They will come, regardless of the window, if the movie is good enough. From what I read, this movie is more self contained and doesn’t really push the overall MCU in any direction. So I can see why people would want to wait…and they would probably wait if the window was 90 days too.

why does it need to “push the MCU”? Shouldn’t the number one priority be just make a good movie that can stand on its own?

 

[Sithborg]

I think the theatrical window is a bit of an excuse. The most important thing, IMO, is that you need to make the audience feel that they NEED to see this in theaters. They will come, regardless of the window, if the movie is good enough. From what I read, this movie is more self contained and doesn’t really push the overall MCU in any direction. So I can see why people would want to wait…and they would probably wait if the window was 90 days too.

It comes down to marketing. Thor was definitely hurt by the lack of marketing. Strange benefitted of months of extra marketing thanks to being so prominent in the NWH marketing. Marvel's current marketing strategy of only focusing on the next movie when they are starting to release so many a year is going to hurt their opening weekends.

As for the theatrical window, lets be honest here. For 90% of movies, especially blockbuster tentpoles, 6 weeks is more then enough. Most of them will be out of theaters before then. At my preferred theater, I'm lucky if a movie makes it 4 weeks.

 

[JKKS085]

It comes down to marketing. Thor was definitely hurt by the lack of marketing. Strange benefitted of months of extra marketing thanks to being so prominent in the NWH marketing. Marvel's current marketing strategy of only focusing on the next movie when they are starting to release so many a year is going to hurt their opening weekends.

As for the theatrical window, lets be honest here. For 90% of movies, especially blockbuster tentpoles, 6 weeks is more then enough. Most of them will be out of theaters before then. At my preferred theater, I'm lucky if a movie makes it 4 weeks.

The idea is the the longer you delay the home video release, the bigger the incentive for people to see it in theater. It’s not about the the crowds seeing it after the sixth weekend, it’s about people being able to see these at home after a very short window and who might be more comfortable to skip the theatrical experience altogether if your output is not entirely up to snuff (which is the case for the 2 MCU movies this year) that they were in the past.

 

[HammerDown]

11th day

SM: H - 5.4M
Thor: L&T - 5.3M
DS: MOM - 4.8M
GOTG - 4.7M
Ragnarok - 3.6M

12th day

SM: H - 7.5M
GOTG - 6.6M
Thor: L&T - 6.4M
DS: MOM - 5.2M
Ragnarok - 4.4M

13th day

SM: H - 4.9M
GOTG - 4.8M
Thor: L&T - 4.5M
DS: MOM - 3.9M
Ragnarok - 2.9M

 

[Evil Twin]

Neither Disney nor any company with a streaming platform would do that when they see how these movies ending up on their platforms translates to revenue for said platform. Not to mention the convenience factor for most audiences, especially families. I don't see the 45 day window going away anytime soon.

At some point, maybe, given how Disney moved from Premium Access to the 45 day window. But not right now. Especially since, besides maybe No Way Home, none of Phase 4's films have felt like 'Oh, I MUST see this in theaters!' Like you said, casual viewers won't watch a mid-tier film in the cinema when it'll be at home sooner than expected.

WBD just did that with Elvis.

The 45 day window is an experiment and studios are still figuring out what's optimal. Another 2 weeks is 60 days and that's still a fairly quick turnaround. I fully expect that studios will ultimately settle somewhere between 45 and 90 days based on the data they're receiving. They want it to be long enough to justify people hurrying out to the theaters and not shortening the legs substantially, but not too long that people have moved on when it hits streaming.

Really, I kind of think that the best method is a case by case basis. Obviously, Paramount would have been foolish to announce a 45 day window for Top Gun: Maverick. Something smaller, and no big deal.

 

[Filmfreak]

I think more and more movies will ditch the 45 day window in the future, especially for studios that don't have such an immediate need of increasing subscription numbers.

 

[writer0327]

I wonder if these are the lingering effects from Endgame. I know Fat Thor was a hit for some, but I wonder how many were turned off at how they stripped the character of his "Thor-ness" and went ultra-joke with him.

 

[MadVillainy]

I wonder if these are the lingering effects from Endgame. I know Fat Thor was a hit for some, but I wonder how many were turned off at how they stripped the character of his "Thor-ness" and went ultra-joke with him.

I don't think people care/cared about that. I just don't think the audience is responding to the movie for other reasons. And while it's doing well it's not reaching the heights some were predicting.

I also feel like people online waaaaay inflate what the public perception of Ragnarok. Obviously it's well liked and was successful but online they way people act you would've thought it was a 1b movie. I think people were/are expecting L&T to be humongous based on that.

 

[BigThor]

Field dayyyyyyyyyyy.

 

[Mysteryman]

I don't think people care/cared about that. I just don't think the audience is responding to the movie for other reasons. And while it's doing well it's not reaching the heights some were predicting.

I also feel like people online waaaaay inflate what the public perception of Ragnarok. Obviously it's well liked and was successful but online they way people act you would've thought it was a 1b movie. I think people were/are expecting L&T to be humongous based on that.

I think Disney is also guilty of inflating the public perception of Ragnarok.
That is why they insisted L&T be under 2 hours.
Shorter Runtime, More Showings.
Big Mistake.

 

[NotNickFury]

I don't think people care/cared about that. I just don't think the audience is responding to the movie for other reasons. And while it's doing well it's not reaching the heights some were predicting.

I also feel like people online waaaaay inflate what the public perception of Ragnarok. Obviously it's well liked and was successful but online they way people act you would've thought it was a 1b movie. I think people were/are expecting L&T to be humongous based on that.

Not just that, as far as the MCU goes, Thor is still one of the originals and his profile got a big boost from both Ragnarok and Infinity War. So I'm sure many would think that if Black Widow or Doctor Strange couldn't reach a billion, surely Thor, one of the original remaining Avengers, could get there. But as we can see, that's not the case.

Plus, unlike No Way Home, Love and Thunder didn't have a multiverse premise or returning villains for added curiosity. Multiverse of Madness had the multiverse, sure, but Doctor Strange is no Spider-Man.

 

[Mysteryman]

Not just that, as far as the MCU goes, Thor is still one of the originals and his profile got a big boost from both Ragnarok and Infinity War. So I'm sure many would think that if Black Widow or Doctor Strange couldn't reach a billion, surely Thor, one of the original remaining Avengers, could get there. But as we can see, that's not the case.

Plus, unlike No Way Home, Love and Thunder didn't have a multiverse premise or returning villains for added curiosity. Multiverse of Madness had the multiverse, sure, but Doctor Strange is no Spider-Man.

Dr Strange has done pretty well.
$954 million dollars is nothing to sneeze at.
Especially, when you consider that the original film made about 677 million.

 

[Zyraquis]

I guess the studio is also studying hard the discrepancies in BO between the 2 films.

i would also say Dr Strange helped more by the jump in Wanda popularity in a short period of time than the cameo. Wanda wasn’t even 2-tiered in MCU up until perhaps Infinity War.

How? D+. Here enters your potential additional value, it’s not monetary directly but it can pay off though it’s hard to repeat.