Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[Pennywise]

 

[HammerDown]

Better than initially projected.

3rd weekend

DS: MOM - 32.3M
GOTG - 25.1M
Thor: L&T - 22.4M
SM: H - 22.1M
Ragnarok - 21.6M

 

[Evil Twin]

Variety is saying that Thor: Love and Thunder took in $22.1 million (-53%) for the weekend. That brings its domestic total to $276 million.

I'm guessing maybe $60 million, give or take, left in the tank, unless the lack of competition in August really pumps up legs. Thor and Minions are probably in a dogfight for a rank on the end of the year domestic chart.

Jordan Peele's 'Nope' Leads Box Office Charts - Variety

 

[HammerDown]

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

So did it pass $600 million or not? Two different reports.

 

[Fosterson]

This movie has been an abject disappointment all round. Its embarrassing that it's probably gonna make less money that TDW did 9 years ago (in winter time and up against Hunger Games 2 to boot).

 

[Iceman]

Feels like this will get overtaken in dailies by Maverick at some point.

 

[Evil Twin]

This movie has been an abject disappointment all round. Its embarrassing that it's probably gonna make less money that TDW did 9 years ago (in winter time and up against Hunger Games 2 to boot).

Thor: The Dark World only made $206 million domestic and $644 million worldwide. With China and Russia contributing. Thor: Love and Thunder is probably going to make over $330 million domestic and over $700 million worldwide without China and Russia.

There's no reason to post blatantly false takes.

 

[Fosterson]

Thor: The Dark World only made $206 million domestic and $644 million worldwide. With China and Russia contributing. Thor: Love and Thunder is probably going to make over $330 million domestic and over $700 million worldwide without China and Russia.

There's no reason to post blatantly false takes.

TDW was released in winter and had to go up against Hunger Games 2. LAT was released in July and had no direct competitor (Top Gun and JW were already coming to the end of their runs) aside from Minions.

 

[Filmfreak]

Well, 53% is not as bad as it was initially projected (though we'll know for sure in the actuals) but it's still not that good to be honest. For reference the only other two MCU films that had a similar second weekend drop, No Way Home and Multiverse of Madness, had a 34% and 48% third weekend drop respectively. Thor's numbers aren't bad surely, but let's not pretend that it's the usual Marvel ones. People didn't care enough for Love and Thunder to watch it again and again as they did with most other entries.

 

[Fosterson]

Feels like this will get overtaken in dailies by Maverick at some point.

Its embarrassing. Marvel were expecting this to be a clean $1 billion and instead it might not break even.

 

[HammerDown]

This movie has been an abject disappointment all round. Its embarrassing that it's probably gonna make less money that TDW did 9 years ago (in winter time and up against Hunger Games 2 to boot).

Dude relax.

Thor Franchise Box Office (- China & Russia)

Thor: Ragnarok - 718M
Thor: Love and Thunder - 600M (Ongoing)
Thor: The Dark World - 582M
Thor - 443M

When it’s all said and done it will likely do more than Ragnarok did.

 

[Evil Twin]

TDW was released in winter and had to go up against Hunger Games 2. LAT was released in July and had no direct competitor (Top Gun and JW were already coming to the end of their runs) aside from Minions.

So you're saying that TDW was less successful than TLT and you're making excuses for it. Okay. What you said before was out and out false anyways.

I don't know if there were unrealistic expectations for TLT or if it's a true disappointment. Maybe a little of both. Either way, it's going to end up around the top 6 domestic grossers of the year to date. I'm sure BP2 will knock it down a spot and probably Avatar 2 as well. If Shazam 2 or Black Adam outgross it, then you might have something to crow about. .

 

[HammerDown]

Thor: The Dark World only made $206 million domestic and $644 million worldwide. With China and Russia contributing. Thor: Love and Thunder is probably going to make over $330 million domestic and over $700 million worldwide without China and Russia.

There's no reason to post blatantly false takes.

 

[Iceman]

Dude relax.

Thor Franchise Box Office (- China & Russia)

Thor: Ragnarok - 718M
Thor: Love and Thunder - 600M (Ongoing)
Thor: The Dark World - 582M
Thor - 443M

When it’s all said and done it will likely do more than Ragnarok did.

$112m of Ragnarok’s haul was from China and it doesn’t sound as impressive without that (in the way that L&T doesn’t have it). L&T left a fair amount of money on the table but it’s not some huge disaster.

 

[writer0327]

Well, 53% is not as bad as it was initially projected (though we'll know for sure in the actuals) but it's still not that good to be honest. For reference the only other two MCU films that had a similar second weekend drop, No Way Home and Multiverse of Madness, had a 34% and 48% drop respectively. Thor's numbers aren't bad surely, but let's not pretend that it's the usual Marvel ones. People didn't care enough for Love and Thunder to watch it again and again as they did with most other entries.

Its a disappointment to be sure. Most were expecting a billion. Likely won't reach 800k and even 750k is looking grim.

 

[HammerDown]

$112m of Ragnarok’s haul was from China and it doesn’t sound as impressive without that (in the way that L&T doesn’t have it). L&T left a fair amount of money on the table but it’s not some huge disaster.

It’s not at all. It might be disappointing, sure, but it’s not a failure by any stretch of imagination. But people like to whine about it, maybe it gives them some sort of kick, or a vindication about something, or simply because haters are going to hate regardless.

There’s no middle ground these days apparently which is just flat out ridiculous.

 

[Sithborg]

Its embarrassing. Marvel were expecting this to be a clean $1 billion and instead it might not break even.

This was never going to make a billion without China. The numbers never supported such a growth. Frankly, beating Ragnarok's global total (adjusted for missing countries) is in serious doubt. Frankly, hitting $700 is a push I don't think it has in it.

Its not a disaster financially; However, we are dealing with a corporate entity that may not be happy with the results.

 

[Iceman]

This was never going to make a billion without China. The numbers never supported such a growth. Frankly, beating Ragnarok's global total (adjusted for missing countries) is in serious doubt. Frankly, hitting $700 is a push I don't think it has in it.

Its not a disaster financially; However, we are dealing with a corporate entity that may not be happy with the results.

Ragnarok minus China is around 600m, but yeah I think the suits are going to be disappointed.

 

[InCali]

TDW was released in winter and had to go up against Hunger Games 2. LAT was released in July and had no direct competitor (Top Gun and JW were already coming to the end of their runs) aside from Minions.

I haven’t looked into this thoroughly, but I think a 68% first week and about a 50% second week drop is fairly standard for this type of movie. Those percentages tend to go down and I think next week we can expect something in about the 40-45% range?

 

[Sithborg]

Ragnarok minus China is around 600m, but yeah I think the suits are going to be disappointed.

Ragnarok only did $112 in China, so the target is around 715. Like I said, that feels like a lot more than it will be able to do.

I haven’t looked into this thoroughly, but I think a 68% first week and about a 50% second week drop is fairly standard for this type of movie. Those percentages tend to go down and I think next week we can expect something in about the 40-45% range?

I biggest concern is that it has been pretty consistantly been below Jurassic World Dominion, and that is without the loss of premium screens its about to face.

 

[HammerDown]

Thor Ragnarok

Worldwide = 853M (718M - China & Russia)
Domestic = 315M
International = 538M (403M - China & Russia)
(China = 112M + Russia = 23M)
—— // ——

Thor: Love and Thunder (17 days)

Worldwide = 598M
Domestic = 276M
International = 322M

 

[Iceman]

Ragnarok only did $112 in China, so the target is around 715. Like I said, that feels like a lot more than it will be able to do.

Dude relax.

Thor Franchise Box Office (- China & Russia)

Thor: Ragnarok - 718M
Thor: Love and Thunder - 600M (Ongoing)
Thor: The Dark World - 582M
Thor - 443M

When it’s all said and done it will likely do more than Ragnarok did.

Oh yep, I was using Hammerdown’s number above which actually already took out China and Russia lol. Means my other posts on this page are wrong too.

 

[HammerDown]

Worldwide:

1st weekend - 300M
2nd weekend - 500M
3rd weekend - 600M
4th weekend - 650M ?

Interesting trajectory here, so it went 300-200-100 and so I’m guessing it will be at roughly 650M WW and 300M domestic next weekend. It should do about 25M domestic through the week + weekend and then around 30M internationally in the same time frame.

 

[Iceman]

Seems like $700m is the target but not totally straightforward to beat that.