Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[Iceman]

Worldwide:

1st weekend - 300M
2nd weekend - 500M
3rd weekend - 600M
4th weekend - 660M
5th weekend - ?

So yeh it should be around 700M by the end of next weekend.

Thor Franchise Box Office (- China & Russia)

Thor: Ragnarok - 718M
Thor: Love and Thunder - 661M (Ongoing)
Thor: The Dark World - 582M
Thor - 443M

So it will be similar to Ragnarok which is fine. Would have ideally wanted to build further on that but can't call matching a film like that a disaster.

 

[Iceman]

I think the key mistake would be the "pandemic or no" part, not the "guaranteed billion" part. I mean, no, the Marvel name alone doesn't quite *guarantee* billion dollar revenue, but its worth a *lot*. Its just not enough to overcome major systemic headwind and a global entertainment market that hasn't even come close to stabilizing into its prior status quo.

Basically, figuring that the Marvel name value is enough to overcome all ordinary factors was probably fine. We just aren't dealing with anything one might have called "ordinary" factors ( and might not for anytime soon ).

True, although I think MCU event films ie Avengers films, would always at least squeak over a billion even if received badly.

 

[HammerDown]

In the top spot for this weekend is Thor: Love and Thunder with $2.14M, bringing the cume to $40.03M.

 

[HammerDown]

BO……… TLT 4wkn — Rag 4wkn — Rag Total

U.K……….. 37.3M —— (37.1M) —— (40.9M)
Australia…. 27.3M —— (22.3M) —— (26.9M)
Mexico…… 26.0M —— (20.1M) —— (21.2M)
S. Korea…. 22.6M —— (33.8M) —— (35.1M)
Brazil…….. 20.0M —— (27.3M) —— (30.4M)
France…… 17.7M —— (17.7M) —— (21.2M) *
India……… 16.0M —— (11.5M) —— (11.8M)
Germany… 15.1M —— (17.3M) —— (19.0M)
Indonesia.. 12.4M —— (11.6M) —— (11.7M)
Argentina.. 10.1M —— (5.3M) —— (6.1M)
Spain……. 10M ——— (9.7M) —— (10.6M
Italy………. 9.7M —— (10.1M) —— (10.3M)

* (3rd weekend comparison.)
In green the countries where TLT is so far outperforming Ragnarok.

So maybe it has 25 to 30M left from overseas markets.

 

[Prison Mike]

What’s T: L&T budget compared to Ragnarok? Even if their box office takes are similar without China and Russia, Love & Thunder’s profit would be less because of a bigger budget and marketing costs?

 

[Filmfreak]

I suspect marketing for Love and Thunder might have been slightly less expensive than Ragnarok, since it took a bit longer to start, but production-wise it cost 70 million more.

 

[Zyraquis]

The reported cost is a bit much for a solo at $250m. If that figure is correct, it either shows the studio’s confidence in BO or some cost control gone wrong.

 

[HammerDown]

It cost the same as Captain America: Civil War. Marvel/Disney clearly had high hopes for TLT because of the success of Ragnarok and substantial rise in popularity of the titular character.

They brought in a lot of big names and that jacked up the price, Christian Bale, Natalie Portman, Russel Crowe, “Lena Headey”, “Jeff Goldblum”, “Peter Dinklage”… plus the returning cast likely got a raise bump. So yeh a big cast, a film set mostly in space which puts a lot of weight on the CGI budget…

Then C19 hit, China decided not to show Marvel movies anymore and Russia invaded Ukraine. Other than that the film had a lukewarm reception which definitely dampened significantly its box office potential.

I still maintain that had TLT turned out as good as Ragnarok or even close to that, with a pretty good critical reception then it would have likely hit 1B not to mention that had China and Russia been on the table that number would’ve increased even more.

So yeh many variables that pretty much explain it all. I’m the end we’ll get a decent box office result but nevertheless a disappointing one taking into account the hopes and expectations.

 

[Prison Mike]

I feel like if they announce an Eternals 2, then we would surely get a Thor 5 and with Taika coming back (if he wants). I think Feige really likes Taika and he definitely doesn’t have to babysit him while shooting the thing.

 

[Evil Twin]

The reported cost is a bit much for a solo at $250m. If that figure is correct, it either shows the studio’s confidence in BO or some cost control gone wrong.

I expect Covid protocols jacked up the price some as well.

 

[HammerDown]

I feel like if they announce an Eternals 2, then we would surely get a Thor 5 and with Taika coming back (if he wants). I think Feige really likes Taika and he definitely doesn’t have to babysit him while shooting the thing.

I think that a Thor 5 is much more likely to happen than a Eternals 2. Thor is still a beloved character with a dedicated fan base and his story will surely continue outside his own franchise but in the overall MCU for the near future until they eventually go back to drawing board for Thor 5.

I do feel like Taika has to have a good look at TLT and dial down a lot of questionable stuff. I think a more hands on oversight plus a cohesive vision and an overall better grasp on what people really want to see is important to deliver a much stronger final product.

Hell i would gladly give my 2 cents if someone asked for a couple of ideas.

 

[HammerDown]

4th Monday

DS: MOM - 4.2M
Thor: L&T - 1.8M
SM: H - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 872k

A couple of interesting takeaways. DS: MOM with an unusual high result so it was probably because of some holiday or something special like that because the following days seems much more in line with everything else. TLT pulling a strong result versus Ragnarok and exactly the same as SM:H.

Fun Fact: SM:H was at 279M while TLT is at 303M. From this point on, SM:H still managed to pull in 50M to finish with an end total of 328M.

 

[HammerDown]

Bullet Train, the only direct competition in sight for TLT seems to be a complete dud critically which should help in paving the way for a decent final run for TLT. Also the League of Super Pets seems to be already faltering and Nope has more limited overall appeal.

So all in all I think TLT should be able to keep going on its decent track towards an acceptable final run.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Bullet Train, the only direct competition in sight for TLT seems to be a complete dud critically which should help in paving the way for a decent final run for TLT. Also the League of Super Pets seems to be already faltering and Nope has more limited overall appeal.

So all in all I think TLT should be able to keep going on its decent track towards an acceptable final run.

Just curious; what would be considered an UNacceptable final run?

 

[HammerDown]

4th Monday

DS: MOM - 4.2M
Thor: L&T - 1.8M
SM: H - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 872k

4th Tuesday

SM: H - 2.4M
Thor: L&T - 2.0M
DS: MOM - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 1.1

 

[HammerDown]

4th Monday

DS: MOM - 4.2M
Thor: L&T - 1.8M
SM: H - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 872k

4th Tuesday

SM: H - 2.4M
Thor: L&T - 2.0M
DS: MOM - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 1.1

4th Wednesday

SM: H - 1.8M
Thor: L&T - 1.5M
DS: MOM - 1.5M
Ragnarok - 915k

 

[Iceman]

4th Monday

DS: MOM - 4.2M
Thor: L&T - 1.8M
SM: H - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 872k

4th Tuesday

SM: H - 2.4M
Thor: L&T - 2.0M
DS: MOM - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 1.1

4th Wednesday

SM: H - 1.8M
Thor: L&T - 1.5M
DS: MOM - 1.5M
Ragnarok - 915k

L&T seems to be doing ok against MoM and Ragnarok this week.

 

[Evil Twin]

4th Monday

DS: MOM - 4.2M
Thor: L&T - 1.8M
SM: H - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 872k

A couple of interesting takeaways. DS: MOM with an unusual high result so it was probably because of some holiday or something special like that because the following days seems much more in line with everything else. TLT pulling a strong result versus Ragnarok and exactly the same as SM:H.

Fun Fact: SM:H was at 279M while TLT is at 303M. From this point on, SM:H still managed to pull in 50M to finish with an end total of 328M.

Super-Pets appears to be outpacing The Bad Guys. If it continues that, it will ultimately be an okay result.

 

[HammerDown]

1. Top Gun: Maverick - 92M
2. Doctor Strange: MOM - 52M
3. The Batman - 51M
4. Sing 2 - 44M
5. Jurassic World: Dominion - 41M
6. Minions: RoG - 40M
7. Thor: Love and Thunder - 37M

 

[HammerDown]

4th Monday

DS: MOM - 4.2M
Thor: L&T - 1.8M
SM: H - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 872k

4th Tuesday

SM: H - 2.4M
Thor: L&T - 2.0M
DS: MOM - 1.8M
Ragnarok - 1.1

4th Wednesday

SM: H - 1.8M
Thor: L&T - 1.5M
DS: MOM - 1.5M
Ragnarok - 915k

4th Thursday

SM: H - 1.7M
Thor: L&T - 1.4M
DS: MOM - 1.4M
Ragnarok - 1.1M

5th Weekend

Ragnarok - 9.8M
DS: MOM - 9.1M
SM: H - 8.8M

Thor: L&T - ?

 

[HammerDown]

Deadline

4.) Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) 3,400 (-250) theaters, Fri. $2.2M (-41%), 3-day $7.46M (-43%)/Total $315.8M /Wk 5

5th Weekend

Ragnarok - 9.8M
DS: MOM - 9.1M
SM: H - 8.8M
Thor: L&T - 7.6M

 

[HammerDown]

Worldwide:

1st weekend - 300M
2nd weekend - 500M
3rd weekend - 600M
4th weekend - 660M
5th weekend - 700M
6th weekend - ?

So around 720M by the end of next weekend.

Thor Franchise Box Office (- China & Russia)

Thor: Ragnarok - 718M
Thor: Love and Thunder - 698M (Ongoing)
Thor: The Dark World - 582M
Thor - 443M

————//————
1st weekend - 300M
2nd weekend - 500M
3rd weekend - 600M
4th weekend - 660M
5th weekend - 700M
6th weekend - 720M
7th weekend - ?

Around 735M by the end of next weekend.

Thor Franchise Box Office (- China & Russia)

Thor: Love and Thunder - 720M (Ongoing)
Thor: Ragnarok - 718M
Thor: The Dark World - 582M
Thor - 443M

 

[Webfoot Hero]

 

[HammerDown]

Already surpassed Ragnarok worldwide gross when comparing both without China and Russia.

It’s now playing quite close to DS:MOM and it has been surpassing it too in some of the daily results, a trend that should continue moving forward… From this day on, to the end of DS:MOM domestic run, it went on to add 13M to its domestic total. I think TLT could go on to add roughly 15M to its domestic gross for a final total of 340M. A worldwide total of 750M seems like a possibility.

I actually think that Disney/Marvel should wait and see how TLT continues to play in theaters moving forward because a release on D+ at this point doesn’t seem like a smart business strategy for now, since there’s nothing of note coming out in theaters for the next 2 months or so and TLT could capitalize on just that.

TLT can use an extended and exclusive theatrical run to add a bit more to its domestic total.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Already surpassed Ragnarok worldwide gross when comparing both without China and Russia.

It’s now playing quite close to DS:MOM and it has been surpassing it too in some of the daily results, a trend that should continue moving forward… From this day on, to the end of DS:MOM domestic run, it went on to add 13M to its domestic total. I think TLT could go on to add roughly 15M to its domestic gross for a final total of 340M. A worldwide total of 750M seems like a possibility.

I actually think that Disney/Marvel should wait and see how TLT continues to play in theaters moving forward because a release on D+ at this point doesn’t seem like a smart business strategy for now, since there’s nothing of note coming out in theaters for the next 2 months or so and TLT could capitalize on just that.

TLT can use an extended and exclusive theatrical run to add a bit more to its domestic total.

With Wakanda Forever not releasing until November, there's no real rush to put Thor: L&T on Disney+ like they did with DS2. I get the feeling they'll make Thor: L&T available for free on Disney+ once they do the Disney+ Day so it has a bit to continue raking in some box office money.