Birds of Prey BoP Box Office Thread

[SomeOldGuy]

Seems like it’s about time to start one of these, no?

Deadline is projecting 110-125 million WW for opening weekend: ‘Birds Of Prey’ Hopes To Slay $110 Million-$125 Million In Box Office Debut – Deadline

boxoffice.com has it at just under 50 million domestic OW, with a shot at 60: Long Range Box Office Tracking: Disney's Mulan - Boxoffice

My utter and total guess at how this will do is 250 domestic/450 OS/700 WW.

 

[Predator jp]

i would say 400-500 worldwide.

 

[Micromind]

Under 50 mil is not good, I hope actual opening is a bit over 50 mil.

 

[TheGuy]

Higher than Shazam due to lesser competition.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Got our first actual number from South Korea, $421k on opening day.

http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

 

[TheGuy]

The only competition this month is Sonic. BoP could open low but leg it out due to less competition, unlike Shazam. Then Onward (Pixar) opens early March.

North of 500m would be awesome.

 

[Micromind]

The only competition this month is Sonic. BoP could open low but leg it out due to less competition, unlike Shazam. Then Onward (Pixar) opens early March.

Yeah and good RT rating might give it a boost as some people who were on fence (as they didn't like Suicide Squad.) might see it after all.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

The great reviews and what is hopefully strong WOM should be able to push it in the long run even if the opening weekend isn't all that great. Also, the movie supposedly cost less than $100M to make, so even $400-$500M WW would make it quite successful and profitable for the studio.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It’s now banked $679k in South Korea ahead of the weekend proper. Hopefully it can at least match Shazam’s $2.8 million opening come Sunday.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxoffice.com has dropped its OW domestic prediction to $42 million. Ouch.

Weekend Box Office Forecast (Thursday Update): Will Birds of Prey Soar as 2020's First Hit Comic Book Film? - Boxoffice

Thursday Update: Despite increasing optimism among fans and online circles, we’ve updated our final weekend forecast below from $48 million to $42 million for Birds of Prey, and the range to $35 – 50 million (down from $40 – 60 million) in response to stalling social trends and pre-sales activity compared to similar R-rated titles with positive reviews.

It remains entirely possible that walk-up business could help the film still reach higher results this weekend, but as of now, our models are increasingly reliant upon them — which could be a challenging ask for an R-rated franchise film leaning heavily on fans and adults, especially with the dual holiday frame coming up next weekend.

Thursday night results will be reported Friday morning, followed by weekend estimates throughout the coming days.

 

[Greenlite]

getting mixed info today lol, will see how thurs and cinemascore goes tonight

 

[TheScarecrow]

The great reviews and what is hopefully strong WOM should be able to push it in the long run even if the opening weekend isn't all that great. Also, the movie supposedly cost less than $100M to make, so even $400-$500M WW would make it quite successful and profitable for the studio.

Those numbers are almost outside the realm of possibility at this point.

This is tracking under Shazam, so at this point $300M worldwide would be a victory, unless it breaks out.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[Greenlite]

So looks like 50-55M OW, I don't know how they got 42M, maybe a plothole in the matrix they used

 

[Iceman]

Hopefully the reviews and hype created will lead to a boost to the later part of the weekend by when word of mouth starts getting out.

 

[Iceman]

The studio making the film is often way too conservative so any negative shocks are easier to absorb.

 

[Greenlite]

How High Will Harley Quinn and 'Birds of Prey' Fly This Oscar Weekend? - Box Office Mojo

Warner Bros. will open the film in over 4,200 locations and is anticipating a debut topping $45 million while tracking we've seen is much higher, looking for an opening anywhere from $56-60 million and we're finding ourselves settling somewhere in the middle of all that.

A look at IMDb page view performance for Birds of Prey over the two weeks leading up to release shows it pacing behind the likes of Logan, Joker, Aquaman and Shazam!. More favorable comps show the film pacing ahead of John Wick: Chapter 3 and Hobbs & Shaw, though their release timing within the Summer corridor does make those comps a bit hazy. As much as we see potential for the film to land within the estimates tracking is seeing, a performance closer to $48-53 million is where we're settling. Reviews are certainly working in the film's favor and should audiences find themselves agreeing with the critical consensus -- 88% on RottenTomatoes and 61 on Metacritic -- word of mouth could help bolster not only the film's weekend performance, but push it into that $55+ million range. For now, we're going with a $51 million forecast, but if it manages to top $53 million it will find itself as one of the ten largest February openings ever.

 

[Iceman]

I want over $55m please.

 

[Rorschach2012]

I need this movie to do well. I loved it and it desperately deserves a sequel.

 

[Iceman]

I need this movie to do well. I loved it and it desperately deserves a sequel.

I wonder how much it needs to guarantee a sequel.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I wonder how much it needs to guarantee a sequel.

Shazam got one on a similar budget so, 350-400 WW, something like that?

 

[Greenlite]

Budget's like 81M after tax benefits so maybe around 50M less than Shazam should be fine, considering no Chinese market and Asia might be affected as well? Plus BOP has a gun exec producer =P

 

[Iceman]

Shazam got one on a similar budget so, 350-400 WW, something like that?

Good point. Let’s hope it at least beats those figures then.

 

[Iceman]

Budget's like 81M after tax benefits so maybe around 50M less than Shazam should be fine, considering no Chinese market and Asia might be affected as well? Plus BOP has a gun exec producer =P

Hopefully it does need less than Shazam, but ends up making more.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

‘Birds Of Prey’ Hatching Around $4M+ On Thursday Night – Deadline