Lucifer Lucifer ratings discussion

[famicommander]

Lucifer is about to start, and when it does the renew/cancel speculation will begin.

Here are some things working in favor and against Lucifer's renewal

In favor:
-Good timeslot. It has X-Files as a lead in, and when that show ends Gotham takes its place. Both shows seem compatible
-Fox as a network is a dumpster fire right now. Very few shows on the network could even be described as healthy, let alone doing well. This means that the bar for renewal for Lucifer is probably much lower than it would be on ABC, CBS, or NBC. Scream Queens went fractional more than once this year and got renewed.
-The lead is charismatic and the leaked pilot was actually pretty funny. I came into it expecting to hate the show but it won me over. It could do the same for others

Against:
-Fox doesn't own the show, which means they won't really care if it does great streaming numbers, digital sales, DVD/Blu Ray sales, syndication, etc. That money goes to Warner.
-it's a very loose adaptation of a niche comic series. Lucifer doesn't have a large built-in fanbase like The Flash or Supergirl or even Green Arrow.
-It's yet another crime drama and yet another comic book adaptation. There are a ton of each on TV, and seemingly more every year.
-Every new show on Fox this year except Rosewood has done poorly. Lucifer could easily bomb just as hard.

For the season average, here are my best guesses for what it means for the show's future

Under 1.0: cancelled
1.0: probably cancelled
1.1: toss up
1.2-1.3: probably renewed
1.4+: definitely renewed

 

[p4poetic]

The pilot will likely have decent ratings. Depending on how the general public reaction to it, it might go on to a second season. The comic book fans or people aware of the source material wont like it, but that's a small segment of viewers.

 

[aNarcHy2day]

And that's not even necessary. iZombie is in the same category and that has been received well by most. I did like the pilot and the lead seems pretty charismatic in that. If they can come up with good stories, I'm sure 'not being true to source material' won't be that big of a problem.

 

[famicommander]

X-Files did huge numbers last night. A 5.1 is the initial number and that is likely to increase with the adjustments.

Even if the decline for episode 2 tonight is massive Lucifer should still have a very solid lead in.

Lucifer did excellent last night. It scored a 2.4 demo rating out of a 3.1 for X-Files.

That means Lucifer has tied Rosewood for the best debut on Fox this season (aside from X-Files, which is a mini series but could still get renewed). Even better? Rosewood's debut leading into an episode of Empire that scored a 6.7.

One week doesn't mean the show is safe by any means but this start was about the best case scenario.

Now we have to see how it holds up next week.

 

[famicommander]

Other new series on Fox this year, first and second episodes

Rosewood:
Week 1 - 2.42
Week 2 - 1.99
Season average so far - 1.62

Scream Queens (renewed):
Week 1 - 1.65 (two episode premiere)
Week 2 - 1.42
Season average so far - 1.09

Grandfathered:
Week 1 - 1.49
Week 2 - 1.16
Season average so far - 1.03

The Grinder:
Week 1 - 1.52
Week 2 - 0.96
Season average so far - 0.89

Second Chance (already being burned off on Fridays):
Week 1 - 1.20
Week 2 - 1.00
Season average so far - 1.10

Cooper Barrett's Guide to Survival:
Week 1 - 1.19
Week 2 - 2.07 (heavily inflated by football)
Season average so far - 1.48

Bordertown:
Week 1 - 1.13
Week 2 - 1.48 (heavily inflated by football)
Season average so far - 1.26

Minority Report (cancelled):
Week 1 - 1.11
Week 2 - 0.89
Season average so far - 0.72

 

[famicommander]

The final L+SD rating stayed at 2.4. Viewership total went up slightly to 7.16 million people

The half hours were 2.5/2.4, which is a very good sign. If a show has a huge drop from the first half hour to the second in its primere it doesn't bode well for the next week.

Anything above 1.8 next week would be a success in my book. It may depend on how far X-Files drops.

The final unrounded L+SD numbers

2.43 rating, 7.156 million viewers

 

[famicommander]

initial overnight numbers

1.9 rating, 6 million viewers

It's a pretty big decline but still a pretty good number. X-Files dropped by about the same percentage.

If it levels off anywhere above 1.3 I think we're okay

Lucifer adjusted up to a 2.0 rating, held the 6.00 million viewers

Excellent news

 

[aNarcHy2day]

That's good news.

 

[famicommander]

Initial overnight ratings last night were a 1.7 with 5.47 million viewers. Still solid and safe.

 

[Kathemy]

I'm expecting the show to stabilize around Gotham's ratings which will make it a no-brainer for renewal.

 

[famicommander]

I think we're looking at a little below Gotham but still safe.

1.2-1.4 will be where it settles in, I think.

 

[famicommander]

Lucifer did a 1.6 rating last night, down just a tenth from last week. That's very good, considering the X-Files was down four tenths and the Grammys did a huge 7.4 preliminary rating.

X-Files finale is next week, then we finally get to see how Lucifer does paired with Gotham.

 

[famicommander]

A 1.5 last night.

In the rounded totals it's down a tenth from last week, but in the unroundeds it's almost flat. Last week was a 1.56, this week a 1.54.

With X-Files over we'll see how much Lucifer was depending on its lead-in. Gotham returns next week, and Fox will likely be looking at these two as its season-long pairing for Monday nights next year.

 

[Kathemy]

I am very much hoping for Lucifer to do well since I care a lot about Gotham, but I'm a bit worried, because the show is settling down into a police procedural tone that I imagine people will get tired of. Also Lucifer is more similar to TXF than Gotham (formulaic "excentric genius meets non-believer cop".) Then again if Lucifer amped up its fantasy aspect it would probably appeal more to the comic book fans.

 

[famicommander]

1.3 last night

It really needs to level off soon. I think it will, but who knows.

 

[Kathemy]

It wasn't such a big drop. However the people who came back to watch Gotham will now make the decision if they want to stay with Lucifer or not, and that might lead to a further drop.

Would the show survive levelling at 1.0? Wouldn't that be an awfully hard sell for a first season?

 

[famicommander]

Scream Queens got renewed with a 1.09 season average and it went fractional 6 times, falling as low as 0.8.

If its season low is 1.0, it's going to be fine.

I feel like it'll stay between 1.1-1.4 the rest of the season. Gotham will probably be 1.2-1.6.

Fox has a lot of hours to fill on their schedule next year with Idol finally ending.

 

[Kathemy]

You're right, that was a first season renewal. Frankly, astonishing.

I'm prepared to be wrong here but I'm going to make this prediction anyway - as of now, I don't see Gotham dropping to 1.2.

From what I have seen thus far - given that I do watch every episode and enjoy them - I think Lucifer will settle down at 0.9-1.1.

 

[famicommander]

Gotham has already been as low as 1.3 this year, and it has ten episodes left to air. When daylight savings time hits it'll almost definitely find a new low.

 

[Kathemy]

It's seen one 1.33 and if I remember correctly that was under very special circumstances. That was also episode five (missed the count).

Anyway I stand by the prediction.

 

[Sithborg]

A point that I saw was that Fox is going to have a fairly large hole in their schedule next season, due to American Idol being done. Unless it completely collapses, I think Lucifer should be fine.

 

[Kathemy]

Let's hope so.

 

[famicommander]

Without the Empire lead out, Rosewood absolutely cratered last night. It hit a 0.9. Its midseason finale was a 1.46.

And considering X-Files is marketed as season 10, this makes Lucifer CLEARLY the most successful new show on the network.

At this point I don't see any way Lucifer gets cancelled unless it craters just as hard as Rosewood, which seems unlikely.

 

[Kathemy]

The drop for Rosewood truly was mind-boggling.

 

[famicommander]

Rosewood used to regularly increase 3-4 tenths in the second half hour. Its ratings all year were mostly people pre-tuning to watch Empire in the following hour.

At this point, every drama on Fox this year except Empire, X-Files, Gotham, and Lucifer has gone fractional at least once. And nearly all their comedies, too (all but Simpsons, Family Guy, New Girl, and Last Man... the latter of which will almost certainly do so after its hiatus).