Sinema, I think, is going public in order to get Schumer and the rest to join Biden in preemptively conceding. Because—here’s the good news—she does not actually have the power to sink the measure by withholding her support, unless she is willing to vote against the entire relief bill, thus killing it.
The
budget reconciliation process is a way to pass legislation with a simple majority in the Senate. There are certain arcane rules about what kinds of bills can and can’t be passed through this process. It is the job of the Senate parliamentarian (currently Elizabeth MacDonough) to advise the Senate on whether any given piece of legislation follows or breaks those rules. The parliamentarian may decide, as Sinema has, that the minimum wage hike doesn’t qualify as something that could be passed through reconciliation. And if that happens? “There is no instance in which I would overrule a parliamentarian’s decision,” Sinema told Politico. So Sinema’s position is clear. Less clear is why she thinks it matters.
Here’s what I mean: If the parliamentarian rules against including the minimum wage proposal in reconciliation, and Democrats decide to overrule the parliamentarian, Sinema would still be unable to block its inclusion in the bill.
The parliamentarian has no official power; the vice president, as president of the senate, decides whether to overrule the parliamentarian. It then takes 60 votes to overrule the vice president’s decision.
In other words, if the parliamentarian rules that the wage hike shouldn’t be in the bill (which is far from a given), and the vice president overrules her, Sinema couldn’t stop Harris. Even if she got Joe Manchin and Angus King and Mark Kelly and Jeanne Shaheen on board, they would not be able to block the inclusion of the minimum wage proposal. Their only other option would be to sink the
entire package over one of its most popular elements.
Kyrsten Sinema is bluffing. It’s a bluff Chuck Schumer, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris should call.