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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at the BoX Office

That’s a pretty normal drop for a MCU movie these days. The earlier they start these movies during the “previews”, the steeper the 2nd Friday drop is going to be.
Yeah and that's the drop from Friday to Friday not the wknd drop-- and last Friday was a holiday in the states so that kind of drop was to be expected. We'll have a better idea what the wknd drop will be late today/early 2mrw.
 
Now that the 8-day tally is in for Wakanda Forever I've updated the previous update for the 8-day tally's for all of the biggest movies of 22 so u can see how it compares in its 2nd wk w/the top movies:


(8-day totals)

Black Adam 91 million (m)
Minions 179m
Batman 191m
Thor L&T 201m
Jurassic WD 207m
Top Gun 230.6m
Wakanda Forever 238m
Strange MoM 248m
 
Weather in the Great Lakes is probably going to knock off a few million.
 
Hmm it looks like it won't outgross Multiverse of Madness, if the legs don't improve.

Based from page 1 of this thread we have over estimated a Black Panther movie without T'Challa.
 
I expected it to do better but it's not a very rewatchable movie so it makes sense.

The re -watchability was one of the questions I had leaving the theater.

The film is cathartic for alot of viewers, but it does make me question if it's the type of thing that will make alot of people want to go back to the theater for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th times .

I'm not saying that there won't be people willing to go back again and again, but I do wonder how much people will feel the need to rush out to the theater again to see it , as opposed to just waiting to stream it, rent it, watch it on Disney + ,etc, after it leaves theaters.
 
That was my idea as well. Also the international numbers are not on par with the US ones, but we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow.
 
The second weekend dropoff is atrocious. We'll see how it performs over the holidays.
 
I am hearing some people say that it could be as low as 58 million.
what are the chances of that?
 
The lower repeat rewatchability due to the tone was likely to be a factor as with Logan. I hope it comes in at the higher end of estimates as I liked the film a lot.
 
Hmm it looks like it won't outgross Multiverse of Madness, if the legs don't improve.

Based from page 1 of this thread we have over estimated a Black Panther movie without T'Challa.
Box office mojo thinks it will have better legs than MoM and that's my prediction as well and like I predicted in week one they think it'll be ahead by week 3. The reason I initially chose wk 3 in stead of this wk is MoM released in the summer so u had all the kids off which would account for stronger week days as well as that first Thursday preview and Friday opening day. But with Thanksgiving and Black Friday, I felt that would even things out a bit more. So I'm still sticking with my initial prediction that by the Monday after thanksgiving it'll be ahead of MoM with its gross for that same time period...but we'll see...Box Office Mojo is also predicting it'll hold better but they're basing that more so on the better CinemaScore it go over MoM-- gain after the 3rd wk that should tell the story one way or the other!

But so far so good as it's outpacing every movie so far except Strange and by Monday should be close to a half billion earned (for its 2wk total)
 
That was my idea as well. Also the international numbers are not on par with the US ones, but we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow.
I think the fact that this movie is driven in large part by its African-American audience and Latinos that it's not surprising it will perform better in the states the mark for success was never going to be matching the US totals.

the original Black Panther did excellent BOTH Internationally and Domestically but even still the US number we're way ahead! Internally it played great but at home it played exceptionally well, hell it out grossed Infinity War in the US and at the time was the 6th best grossing film ever in the US that's why people here have mistakenly made the false claim it didn't do well internationally when it was in fact one of the 3 highest grossing films internationally the yr it came out.

For the first wk it it actually outgrossed the original BP internationally in like for like countries that reported numbers, whereas that wasn't the case domestically. I predicted when it's all said and done it'll outgross the original internationally in like for like countries (not counting the losses in Russia and China and other countries not playing the sequel), but that I'll lose a cpl hundred million in the states.

I may be the optimistic prediction man in these parts but it's not based on wishful thinking, right now the numbers are supporting all my predictions. After this wknd it should be ahead of every movie except Strange and possibly Top Gun (although w/out todays numbers it's ahead of Top Gun)-- by next wk I'm guessing it'll past Strange (for that same period of time) and only trail Top Gun and keep it like that till the end of its run. But I've been wrong before so only time will tell as I've often been right on predictions too!
 
Maybe in the holidays it would have better legs but Avatar, Puss in Boots and whatever new movie in December is going to be the go to movies in the holidays.

At the bright side, this movie isn't flopping.
 
Here in Japan, WF has unfortunately been outshadowed by the newest Shinkai Makoto anime movie.

The showings were still full as I can see yesterday on my nearest theater but not as packed and definitely not much talked on SNS as well.

Hope it can hang on into at least $10 million here, though.
 
Here in Korea there seems to be significantly less hype for this movie compared to the first BP. The first one was a surprisingly big hit, my students talked about the character in the same breath as Iron Man, Thor, and Spider-man, and often did the "Wakanda Forever!" thing. But lately all I've heard is some disappointment that the original Black Panther isn't in it, just a replacement who is barely in the trailer.

I think maybe other countries will be more affected by the lack of T'Challa on account of them being less in tune with the whole situation behind why the movie is what it is.
 
Domestic $67.3M wknd
domestic total so far $288M

Intl $69.8M
International total so far $258.3M
Worldwide $137.1M
Worldwide tally so far $546.3M

this is a truly excellent 2 wk total!! All my previous predictions holding strong so far!

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Nears $550M Global Box Office – Deadline
Excerpts from the article:
The Ryan Coogler-directed sequel is currently the No. 8 highest-grossing Hollywood release of 2022 overseas. Globally, it is at No. 7.

The second offshore weekend was good for $69.8M in 50 material markets. That’s a 49% drop from opening which is better than the majority of other MCU titles for the same suite of markets, including Thor: Love and Thunderand Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (both -56%) as well as Spider-Man: No Way Home (-60%).
 
$350 million is a lock.

$400 million is not out of the question.

$450 million is up in the air.

$500 is most likely the ceiling in my mind

these are all domestic predictions as worldwide is harder to predict
 
It already opened in all countries where it was allowed to be released?
I believe so. Problem is the smaller countries take longer reporting their numbers so there's usually a lag time of a few days up to a cpl wks. Those number do get sorted eventually just not right out of the gate like the bigger countries.

$350 million is a lock.

$400 million is not out of the question.

$450 million is up in the air.

$500 is most likely the ceiling in my mind

these are all domestic predictions as worldwide is harder to predict
I mostly agree with this-- only thing I would change is 400 million is way more likely than unlikely at this point. But all the rest I totally agree!
 
I would be FASCINATED to see Covid19 related expenses and, how it affects budgets of today's blockbusters.
That Amsterdam film with Christian Bale (released in early October) had a budget of 50 million but ballooned to 80 million due to the pandemic. I gotta figure BP2 was greenlit with a 200-220 million dollar budget but covid plus Wright's injury had that figure climb.
 
If it somehow hangs on, maybe it can clear 900 million which is quite a success for it with all things considered (plot, runtime, release date).
 
According to Box Office Mojo, the current total for Wakanda Forever after less than 2 weeks is $552 million.
 
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