Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]503073[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]502971[/split]

 

[Tymminator]

So after 3 weekends, is it safe to say that FFINO is a roaring success?

Well, speaking for myself, I am VERY pleased with its performance these last 3 weekends.

t:

 

[Dark Raven]

Well, speaking for myself, I am VERY pleased with its performance these last 3 weekends.

t:

Well it certainly exceeded all expectations.

 

[Flint Marko]

It certainly surpassed my wildest expectations and became something right out of my wildest dreams.

 

[starscream22]

I'd like to publically admit that I was wrong in guestimating that this reboot would do around $35M OW and $350M WW.

I was way off................And couldn't be prouder.

 

[Wildcard]

Wow, three weekends and only $129 million worldwide to show for it.

 

[Syncer]

Not exactly related to box office, but Fox's stock is dropping

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FOX#symbol=FOX;range=5d

 

[TheVileOne]

Is Emma Watts job safe over all this?

 

[Raiden]

Not exactly related to box office, but Fox's stock is dropping

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FOX#symbol=FOX;range=5d

I hope it will result in stockholders forcing the company to make a deal with Marvel.

 

[Drz]

Everything is dropping due to China guys. It's just a correction in the market.

I hope it will result in stockholders forcing the company to make a deal with Marvel.

Experienced stock holders should know better to not let themselves be dictated by emotions.

 

[regwec]

Not exactly related to box office, but Fox's stock is dropping

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FOX#symbol=FOX;range=5d

I hope it will result in stockholders forcing the company to make a deal with Marvel.

Here is the answer-

Everything is dropping due to China guys. It's just a correction in the market.

Experienced stock holders should know better to not let themselves be dictated by emotions.

Yes. An odd consequence of people's construction around themselves of online phantom communities is that they tend to see the world narrowly, from an eccentric angle that correlates to the beliefs and interests that they opt to share. Most fans here want F4 to be another province of Marvel movies, so sentiments that would encourage that outcome are imputed into the world at large.

 

[Micromind]

Here is the answer-



Yes. An odd consequence of people's construction around themselves of online phantom communities is that they tend to see the world narrowly, from an eccentric angle that correlates to the beliefs and interests that they opt to share. Most fans here want F4 to be another province of Marvel movies, so sentiments that would encourage that outcome are imputed into the world at large.

Well said.

 

[Drz]

Yes. An odd consequence of people's construction around themselves of online phantom communities is that they tend to see the world narrowly, from an eccentric angle that correlates to the beliefs and interests that they opt to share. Most fans here want F4 to be another province of Marvel movies, so sentiments that would encourage that outcome are imputed into the world at large.

 

[Eddie]

Actually the stock drop might be partially related to the crap movies they've put in theaters lately. There was a pretty big dip right as the critical reception was out and Fant4stic begin to flop. Now it may not be permanent, but those kind of fluctuations are pretty typical due to the performance of a single property. Yes, a single property. Square-Enix's stock spiked the moment they announced the Final Fantasy VII remake.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

It wouldn't be a major factor, but I know I'd be more interested in buying Fox stock if they had X-Men TV rights and didn't have FF rights than I would be if they retained the FF rights and didn't have X-Men TV rights.

X-Men TV rights is better for the company's long term profitability than FF rights that they'll never use again. Management and shareholders know that's true, so we'll see what happens.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

And did the colossal failure of Fox's summer tent-pole depress stock value by at least some degree? Yes. Obviously. Just like the performance of Jurassic World improved the stock value of NBC/Universal.

 

[regwec]

Yes, but a global stock crash is clearly more than a coincident factor, while an annual drop in profits would leave longterm investors unfazed and speculators primed to remedy a drop when and if it occurred.

I am not setting myself up as an armchair fund manager here, but there does seem to be a failure to realise what a huge enterprise the Fox Entertainment group is, and how small a matter the relative merits of the F4 movie rights versus the X-Men TV rights are in the grand scheme of things. The narrative that F4 flopped so investors have fled so we get F4 movies made by Marvel is little more than wishful thinking.

 

[InCali]

Yes, but a global stock crash is clearly more than a coincident factor, while an annual drop in profits would leave longterm investors unfazed and speculators primed to remedy a drop when and if it occurred.

I am not setting myself up as an armchair fund manager here, but there does seem to be a failure to realise what a huge enterprise the Fox Entertainment group is, and how small a matter the relative merits of the F4 movie rights versus the X-Men TV rights are in the grand scheme of things. The narrative that F4 flopped so investors have fled so we get F4 movies made by Marvel is little more than wishful thinking.

I know next to nothing about this, but each little tick adds up to a lot of money and no matter how small the tick, multiply that by the number of shares of stock in a company like Fox and you get........a very healthy retirement number. Clearly FF and X-Men are not going to make or break a company like Fox, but neither do they enjoy losing 100M dollars.

 

[regwec]

Of course: every business, whether great or small, wishes to make profits rather than deficits. But the assumptions that a dip in the share price has more to do with F4 than with the Chinese crash, and that we will ultimately be the beneficiaries as Marvel is gifted the F4 rights, are products of a very skewed view.

 

[InCali]

Wow, three weekends and only $129 million worldwide to show for it.

After a 55% drop on it's 3rd weekend (very high for a 3rd weekend drop and not even that great, but understandable, for a 2nd weekend), does anyone want to guess how many screens FF loses this Friday and what kind of drop that translates into? It's now lagging Ant-Man in daily BO and average $$$ per showing. Does anyone think the number of screens isn't next on the list?

 

[InCali]

Of course: every business, whether great or small, wishes to make profits rather than deficits. But the assumptions that a dip in the share price has more to do with F4 than with the Chinese crash, and that we will ultimately be the beneficiaries as Marvel is gifted the F4 rights, are products of a very skewed view.

I don't think ANYONE thinks that FF/X-Men rights has a bigger effect on the stock market price of Fox shares that the crazy stuff we're seeing out of China. Trying to control things to the extent that the Chinese government is seems like a precarious proposition at best.

My point is that little things have an effect and little things can add up. What's going on in the Chinese economy is not "little" by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Mysteryman]

Is Emma Watts job safe over all this?

I would think you would need a few more bombs before she has to worry about her job.
We shall see.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yes, but a global stock crash is clearly more than a coincident factor, while an annual drop in profits would leave longterm investors unfazed and speculators primed to remedy a drop when and if it occurred.

I am not setting myself up as an armchair fund manager here, but there does seem to be a failure to realise what a huge enterprise the Fox Entertainment group is, and how small a matter the relative merits of the F4 movie rights versus the X-Men TV rights are in the grand scheme of things. The narrative that F4 flopped so investors have fled so we get F4 movies made by Marvel is little more than wishful thinking.

What if I told you the drop after the FF reviews started coming in was sharper and more dramatic than what we're seeing now with the current global drop?

 

[InCali]

I would think you would need a few more bombs before she has to worry about her job.
We shall see.

Like Hitman?

They aren't really doing THAT poorly. They just completely whiffed in a very public way on something that could have made them a lot of money. Everyone has bombs. This was just a very high profile bomb that didn't have to be.