Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iceman]

It's a big old franchise.

 

[iEquinox]

Just passed Deathly Hallows Part 2 domestically to take the #27 spot on the all time list, behind Jurassic Park. It will stay there until a new release eventually overtakes it.

Since today, it also doesn't need to outperform Age of Ultron anymore to make it to $390M. Just making as much as AoU from now on will get it there. AoU still has the advantage of double features with Ant-Man and a small Labor Day expansion that gave it an extra million or so, but GotG2 is reasonably ahead in daily numbers and will probably get a Labor Day mini-expansion too. It should make it past $390M in the end.

 

[TheVileOne]

If it makes another $10 million in the USA, that puts it at about $862 million worldwide. Is there any chance it could make about another $13 million overseas to surpass $875 million worldwide?

 

[Erzengel]

No. Maybe another $1M?

 

[iEquinox]

Yeah, it's pretty much done OS, it made $777,143 OS last weekend(OS total hasn't been updated since then), so maybe another $1-2M.

$13M more OS is asking for a miracle at this point.

 

[TheVileOne]

So there's no other major international territories it hasn't been released in?

 

[iEquinox]

Nope. And no minor ones either. Japan and Nepal were the last two markets, and it opened there on May 12th.

 

[Iceman]

Yep this is pretty much done now. Solid run

 

[HammerDown]

I thought it would crack 1B but it fell short around 140M... No biggie, it still made a ton of money and was a huge success at the box office. GOTG is a very healthy franchise.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It's hard for a sequel to increase DOM from a breakout hit but Marvel hit another homerun.

Two homeruns in a row from James Gunn.

The only other MCU directors who managed to do that are the Russos.

I know I'm being greedy but I hope Coogler can manage to do the same thing with BP1 and 2.

 

[Curmudgeon]

I'm one of the many who thought this would crack a billion, but all in all this has been a great run. Maybe IW will give Vol. 3 the boost it needs to pass the billion dollar mark.

 

[Tymminator]

It's hard for a sequel to increase DOM from a breakout hit but Marvel hit another homerun.

Two homeruns in a row from James Gunn.

The only other MCU directors who managed to do that are the Russos.

I know I'm being greedy but I hope Coogler can manage to do the same thing with BP1 and 2.

Joss had two in a row as well. AoU was not as big a hit financial or critic-wise as the first Avengers, but it still was a hit.

 

[TheVileOne]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

BOM has it at $383 million for the weekend.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Joss had two in a row as well. AoU was not as big a hit financial or critic-wise as the first Avengers, but it still was a hit.

AOU was a double at best.

A home run does way better than expected at the box office and gets overwhelming praise from the fans.

 

[Tymminator]

AOU was a double at best.

A home run does way better than expected at the box office and gets overwhelming praise from the fans.

Wasn't talking about homeruns, doubles or even personal opinions. I just said it was a hit, and it was.

Fact is it's certified fresh and made over a billion dollars and more people like it than don't.

The fact the first one is liked better means nothing, the first GotG is liked more than V2 and V2 is still a hit.

 

[Tymminator]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

BOM has it at $383 million for the weekend.

It lost about 1/3 of its screens with all the new movies coming out, so I guess this is no surprise.

Think they may do some double features of it with SM:H in some places?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Wasn't talking about homeruns, doubles or even personal opinions. I just said it was a hit, and it was.

Fact is it's certified fresh and made over a billion dollars and more people like it than don't.

The fact the first one is liked better means nothing, the first GotG is liked more than V2 and V2 is still a hit.

Oh I was referring to directors who had two homeruns in a row.

Most MCU films are hits.

 

[Ozbridge]

It lost about 1/3 of its screens with all the new movies coming out, so I guess this is no surprise.

Think they may do some double features of it with SM:H in some places?

They already do double feature and triple feature with it and Pirates and Cars. If Spider-Man does double feature with any movie it will probably do with Smurf.

 

[Darepool]

Saw it again on Friday, a few hours before Spidey, which I saw again on Saturday

 

[iEquinox]

It passed $385M this weekend, so it's pretty much going as expected, since I predicted this a few weeks ago.
It looks like it might need a little help reaching $390M. Like a small expansion in August, which quite a few May MCU movies got. If it doesn't get one it will probably fall just short of $390M DOM.

OS it really is almost done now after a weekend just under $170,000.

It's going to pass $860M worldwide soon, and it looks like it's pretty much done after that, since it looks like it won't reach $865M WW, even if it gets a little help in August.

Actuals after this weekend:
Domestic: $385,560,026
+ Foreign: $472,525,251
= Worldwide: $858,085,277

 

[ultradog]

It passed $385M this weekend, so it's pretty much going as expected, since I predicted this a few weeks ago.
It looks like it might need a little help reaching $390M. Like a small expansion in August, which quite a few May MCU movies got. If it doesn't get one it will probably fall just short of $390M DOM.

You and I have had the most similar (and accurate) predictions for a couple months now on this. Of course we're just splitting hairs at this point, but I'm still seeing $391M as the final domestic number. It took a hit against SP:H for a few days, but looks like it already recovered by Sunday, resuming its pace of beating AoU. AoU made $5M from this point and that would take GotG2 to almost $391M. And it's still in more theaters than AoU was at this point: 660 compared to 589.

What's new in the equation this year is the direct competition against not 1, but 2 other excellent superhero movies. Well, it just happens that the 3 superhero movies this summer, are all among the people's favorites this summer, so I don't see them cannibalizing each other extraordinarily.

 

[superion]

It passed $385M this weekend, so it's pretty much going as expected, since I predicted this a few weeks ago.
It looks like it might need a little help reaching $390M. Like a small expansion in August, which quite a few May MCU movies got. If it doesn't get one it will probably fall just short of $390M DOM.

OS it really is almost done now after a weekend just under $170,000.

It's going to pass $860M worldwide soon, and it looks like it's pretty much done after that, since it looks like it won't reach $865M WW, even if it gets a little help in August.

Actuals after this weekend:
Domestic: $385,560,026
+ Foreign: $472,525,251
= Worldwide: $858,085,277

It will be the biggest movie of the summer World Wide unless Spider-Man beats it. I think it has enough of a lead that Wonder Woman won't catch it World Wide but Wonder Woman will pass it domestically. It looks like that film is headed to over $400 million.

The 3 super hero movies will completely rule this summer.

 

[iEquinox]

You and I have had the most similar (and accurate) predictions for a couple months now on this. Of course we're just splitting hairs at this point, but I'm still seeing $391M as the final domestic number. It took a hit against SP:H for a few days, but looks like it already recovered by Sunday, resuming its pace of beating AoU. AoU made $5M from this point and that would take GotG2 to almost $391M. And it's still in more theaters than AoU was at this point: 660 compared to 589.

What's new in the equation this year is the direct competition against not 1, but 2 other excellent superhero movies. Well, it just happens that the 3 superhero movies this summer, are all among the people's favorites this summer, so I don't see them cannibalizing each other extraordinarily.

The thing with Age of Ultron is that it got two boosts.

It got double features with Ant-Man(it actually went up by 3% from previous weekend), an advantage that GotG2 will not have. It also got a small expansion on Labor Day, and it remains to be seen if GotG2 gets the same. AoU got over $1M extra because of these factors (and at this point that's a huge 25% boost)

It's also barely making more than Age of Ultron at this point, even though it has more theaters left. And it has a lower per theater average than Age of Ultron, so if it drops to the same theater count as AoU it would probably fall behind in gross.

If it doesn't at least get the same boost AoU got on Labor Day it looks like it would fall just short of $390M.

 

[TheVileOne]

Age of Ultron was also the sequel to one of the biggest movies of all time. Guardians of the Galaxy took a lot of people by surprise, but it also wasn't Avengers either.

 

[Iceman]

Wasn't talking about homeruns, doubles or even personal opinions. I just said it was a hit, and it was.

Fact is it's certified fresh and made over a billion dollars and more people like it than don't.

The fact the first one is liked better means nothing, the first GotG is liked more than V2 and V2 is still a hit.

It was a hit. A double hit as opposed to a home run hit. t:

Most of those billion dollars were automatic just on account of being the sequel to the $1.5B home run hit. It made $1.4B by being a double level hit. It could have made a fair bit more by being another home run. And it would have made significantly less by getting out, but even then would likely have finished over a billion.