Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iceman]

It's at 375M (basically) now with a 5M weekend, I would expect it to end up around 390M. I can't see it hitting 873M at this point, but 3 years ago who would have seen GotG being at the same BO ballpark as a Batman/Superman/Wonder Woman movie? People who were in need of psychiatric treatment.

Exactly. It has no right to be anywhere near those films lol. I remember when the first film was announced and I was thinking what the hell are you doing Marvel?!

 

[TheVileOne]

Anyone who's good with international box office, has Vol. 2 basically bottomed out overseas, or does it still stand to make more?

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Anyone who's good with international box office, has Vol. 2 basically bottomed out overseas, or does it still stand to make more?

I think it might end its overseas run with somewhere between $470M and $475M

 

[iEquinox]

It went up from estimates thanks to a pretty insane Father's Day boost.

$5,071,732(-19.7%) this weekend. It made 9.4% more on Sunday than on Saturday. It even made 5.3% more this Sunday than it did last Sunday.

Domestic total is now $374,942,747

 

[InCali]

It went up from estimates thanks to a pretty insane Father's Day boost.

$5,071,732(-19.7%) this weekend. It made 9.4% more on Sunday than on Saturday. It even made 5.3% more this Sunday than it did last Sunday.

Domestic total is now $374,942,747

Given the smaller percentage drops you usually see later in the runs, I'd say it has "maybe" another 15M DOM. I think 385M is a done deal.

 

[iEquinox]

Given the smaller percentage drops you usually see later in the runs, I'd say it has "maybe" another 15M DOM. I think 385M is a done deal.

Yeah it should pass $385M somewhere close to Spider-Man: Homecoming's opening weekend.

 

[InCali]

It doesn't have to, it has already made more money than BvS. BvS cost 250 with at least 150 million in marketing costs. Vol 2 budget is 200 mill and it's marketing budget considerably less than BvS. it has already surpassed it domestically which counts slightly more for companies.

Very true. Add to it that the mouse is so diversified that a lot of those expenses just go to Disney subsidiaries. They end up pushing a lot of money around in house and it isn't quite like really having to spend it.

 

[marcvader]

Is this done internationally?

 

[ultradog]

Is this done internationally?

Pretty much. It's still playing in a few countries, but very little money left to be earned overseas. One million perhaps.

 

[B]

Is this done internationally?

More or less, it's out of about 99% of the cinemas near me & has been for at least a week, maybe longer in some cases I'm not sure I've not been keeping track. The few that do still have it showing, it's got 1 showing a day. I would surmise that's the same throughout the UK so I wouldn't expect any sizable increases in it's earnings from this side of the water.

 

[Iceman]

Yes I can't see it anywhere showing more than once a day here anymore.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Guardians is now at $847M WW.

 

[Erzengel]

Maybe $850 by Monday.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline has it officially topping $380 million domestic this weekend.

http://deadline.com/2017/06/transformers-the-last-knight-opening-weekend-box-office-1202118976/

 

[Iceman]

Both films have done very well.

 

[HammerDown]

22M away from BvS total of 873M.

 

[iEquinox]

22M away from BvS total of 873M.

So close yet so far. Might even get within 10M in the end, but it looks like there is no chance of topping it.

 

[TheVileOne]

It definitely seems like $385 million is possible now, but I imagine that's about where it tops out.

It still topped Batman v Superman domestically by a significant margin. So did Deadpool for that matter.

Realistically, neither of those scenarios should happen.

 

[ultradog]

It's current trajectory is still for $391M domestic. Even if that estimate is off by 20%, which is unlikely, that would only be a +/- of $2M.

End of June: $382M
End of July: $388M
End of run (September): $391M

 

[TheVileOne]

Will it really be in theaters by September though?

 

[ultradog]

Will it really be in theaters by September though?

5 of the 7 previous MCU May releases (all except Thor and IM2) made it to into September. Even Civil War, which had terrible legs last year (less than half of what GotG2 is doing), made it to September 22nd. GotG2 is now outperforming all the other MCU May releases except "The Avengers", so it will certainly make it well into September.

 

[TheVileOne]

What I really want is for it to crawl to $400 million

 

[ultradog]

What I really want is for it to crawl to $400 million

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RV-p51fvYLc

 

[TheVileOne]

Well I didn't say wish, did I .

 

[iEquinox]

Another $3,023,042 this weekend. That's more than AoU once again, even though AoU had Father's Day to help it this weekend and it was just a normal weekend for GotG2. Should hit $385M during Spider-Man Homecoming's opening weekend. And should still be on track for about $390M, but how far it will get exactly will also depend on if it gets a small Labor Day expansion like some other May MCU movies got.

It also added $777,143 OS this weekend, and it won't add much more OS. Maybe $1-2M more max.

Currently:
$380,236,369 Domestic
$471,211,006 Foreign
$851,447,375 Worldwide

Looks like it will end up with just over $860M WW. Should be between $860-865M. My guess would be right in the middle of that range.