Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[seriesofdreams]

It won't end up with just $375M, it will definitely go higher than that. $385M seems most likely right now.

Sweet. Thanks for looking into it. $385M is a nice, happy number.

Next week I'm going to hit a matinee showing and see it for a 2nd time with my son. It's a rarity these days that I see a movie more than once in theaters. Saw the first GOTG 3x. Gotta see this 1 more time.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm gonna say somewhere in the $385M-$400M range is what it will likely be now if it has like a $5M+ weekend and manages to continue staying $70M or more ahead of the first Guardians this weekend.

 

[iEquinox]

I'm gonna say somewhere in the $385M-$400M range is what it will likely be now if it has like a $5M+ weekend and manages to continue staying $70M or more ahead of the first Guardians this weekend.

I think $400M is off the table at this point. If it does 5M this weekend (I expect it to do $5M+), it will be about $70M ahead of GotG. But GotG made over $10M this weekend, over $8M on the next, and it still did over $5M the weekend after that. So yeah, GotG2 won't be able to keep up with GotG from here on out, that $70M gap will get smaller for sure.

Now take a look at Iron Man's numbers (it had the same release date as GotG2):
It made $7.5M this weekend (GotG2 won't make that much), and has shown better legs than GotG2 so far(it opened with 102M and is now significantly outperforming GotG2). IM made $30M more after its 6th weekend. GotG2 will be at about $365-366M after its 6th weekend. I think it's safe to say that it won't make $30M more like IM did, meaning it won't make it to $395M.

 

[TheVileOne]

$385 million is possible, but the BO is slowing down right now and there are lots more big releases coming. Still that's a great number. And that's well above what the first movie did domestically by about $50 million or so.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Early word is a little over $6 million for a $366 million+ domestic cume by Sunday.

 

[TheVileOne]

Can it still make $385 with that amount before it gets pulled from theaters?

 

[iEquinox]

Can it still make $385 with that amount before it gets pulled from theaters?

I don't see why not. The movies I've used to compare it to (IM3, CW, AoU, IM, Avengers) were all released in the 1st week of May as well, so they were all entering summer and facing heavy competition at this point in their release as well. GotG2 has held on to its theaters relatively well so far, it is being helped by the big amount of underperforming movies (King Arthur, Baywatch, Alien, Snatched, and now The Mummy. PotC has also already started losing theaters)

And if it does make $6M this weekend, that would be a great number. Age of Ultron made 6.3M on this weekend, and went on to make $21M more after that. And talking about heavy competition, next weekend was the weekend AoU faced Jurassic World's 208M+ record opening weekend. I don't think GotG2's competition next weekend will be quite that strong.

 

[ultradog]

After beating AoU pretty consistently during weekdays for the last 3 weeks, it looks like it will finally come very close to matching AoU this weekend. I think it will keep creeping up and beating AoU daily from now on, which means more than the $21M AoU made domestically from this point. It is still in 440 more theaters than AoU had at this point, and should stay in the top 10 longer, due to weaker competition this year.. It should end up very close to $390M domestic.

I was curious as to why it was beating AoU during weekdays for several weeks, but falling back behind AoU on weekends. My best guess is that GotG2 has been coming up against new big budget, big hype names each weekend, but most of them have been quickly failing, allowing GotG2 to come back and do well as soon as the weekend is over. In other words, GotG2 will have better legs than most of the other summer blockbusters this year.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Apparently, it stayed in the Top 5 for $6.2M, beating out It Comes At Night. As of now, it's $71.6M ahead of the first Guardians and had a smaller drop than the first Guardians with 36.6% in its sixth weekend, compared to Guardins 1's 39.4% drop in its sixth weekend. If it holds well next weekend, especially since Disney/Pixar's Cars 3 comes out, it'll have made nearly $375M in it's seventh weekend.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Also, Guardians 2 is now at $833M WW.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'm thinking the domestic ceiling is closer to $380 million now.

 

[HammerDown]

Really solid haul at this point. It will probably finish off in the 870M range.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Really solid haul at this point. It will probably finish off in the 870M range.

Let's see if it can barely top BvS when it finishes it's global run.

 

[iEquinox]

Really solid haul at this point. It will probably finish off in the 870M range.

It won't. Low $860M range is the best case scenario. High $850M range is most likely.

 

[ultradog]

I'm thinking the domestic ceiling is closer to $380 million now.

It will pass $380M around the end of June, and then have all of July, August, and much of September to crawl to $390M.

 

[Ozbridge]

It won't. Low $860M range is the best case scenario. High $850M range is most likely.

Yeah thanks, it made 2.1M this weekend OS so there's no hope for it to cross BvS. After 850M which is guaranteed there's no exciting benchmark for it to cross over except Inside Out's 857M or Catching Fire's 865M which are not exciting and very random. About DOM it'll exceed HP2 as the under-400M movie that is closest to 400M.

 

[HammerDown]

It won't. Low $860M range is the best case scenario. High $850M range is most likely.

Well you also said it wouldn't crack 100M in China. Let's wait and see.

 

[iEquinox]

Well you also said it wouldn't crack 100M in China. Let's wait and see.

Oh come on. You can't use that as an example of me being wrong. Besides, you said it would "easily pass $100M in China", and it clearly didn't. You're grasping at straws here.

About the whole China "$100M" situation:
The only reason it reached $100M in China because of outside factors, which were completely unpredictable. Only because boxofficemojo decided to use the exchange rate for the yuan at the final day of its run instead of using the exchange rate for when it was actually making money in China. The exchange rate took a jump right when GotG2 finished its run in China, from 6.902 yuan per dollar to 6.80 yuan per dollar. This is enough to make it go from $99.2M to $100M+. I obviously didn't anticipate a change in exchange rate at the last second. Basically I was predicting a final total of under 690.2M yuan, and it ended up with 685M yuan. So I was right, only "technically" was I wrong because of completely unpredictable outside factors.

The final number boxofficemojo uses in their per market list is $100.66M in China. But it actually made $99.21M in China if you use the correct exchange rates for every day in its release.

Besides, so what if it made 663k over 100M in China. Does that mean all comparisons and logic I used to predict it's run goes out the window? Nope, my reasoning doesn't change. I don't know why you're trying to find things I got "wrong" to use some kind of "evidence" that my predictions aren't accurate. Your predictions have been far less accurate than mine, that much is clear, looking at these posts:

These are all in chronological order:

Taking into account the remaining days in this week plus the big second weekend. It will be on track to my 1B prediction.

Domestic / 370M + Foreign / 630M = 1B

$1B is pretty much off the table. Even 900M seems very optimistic. It's heading for about 460M OS.

A rough estimate taking into account the numbers i have pulled puts the total at 930M. But i am still not letting go of the 1B prediction. ALL IN!

I would be very surprised if it makes it to 900M. Seems very unlikely.

 

[HammerDown]

Dude you're making a fuss out of such a small thing.
"Grasping straws" You are the one saying it won't be on the "870M range" but in the best case scenario it will be on the "low 860M range". And of course i was wrong and it's not the first and won't be the last time it will happen. Whatever man this isn't brain surgery and it's only a big deal for you.

 

[iEquinox]

It isn't really a "big deal" to me either. Most of my post is just me talking about how the China box office number for boxofficemojo came to be. I thought it was pretty interesting.
I'm still not sure if boxofficemojo's number for the Foreign box office actually includes over $100M from China or not.
And since I'm probably the only one who thinks this is interesting I guess I'll never know xD

I guess the long post makes it look like I was making a fuss about it, but that really wasn't my intention lol.

 

[iEquinox]

$6,312,367 weekend, nearly exactly the same as AoU's $6,339,663 on its 6th weekend.

Next weekend GotG2 won't have competition as strong as AoU had, but I think it will be losing more theaters (There's a lot of new releases, which open in a combined total of over 13,000 theaters next weekend.), so I don't expect it to do much better than AoU did next weekend even though AoU faced Jurassic World's 208M opening.

So I think GotG2 will lose quite a lot of theaters, and if it does, that will hurt it next weekend. This is why I don't expect it to make more than AoU did from this point forward a even though GotG2 has stronger legs. AoU made another 21M, if GotG2 does the same it would end with 387M.

 

[InCali]

$6,312,367 weekend, nearly exactly the same as AoU's $6,339,663 on its 6th weekend.

Next weekend GotG2 won't have competition as strong as AoU had, but I think it will be losing more theaters (There's a lot of new releases, which open in a combined total of over 13,000 theaters next weekend.), so I don't expect it to do much better than AoU did next weekend even though AoU faced Jurassic World's 208M opening.

So I think GotG2 will lose quite a lot of theaters, and if it does, that will hurt it next weekend. This is why I don't expect it to make more than AoU did from this point forward a even though GotG2 has stronger legs. AoU made another 21M, if GotG2 does the same it would end with 387M.

I predict 100M in China. t:

 

[iEquinox]

One thing I just noticed is that for Age of Ultron, father's day was on its 8th weekend, and not on the 7th like it is for GotG2. So GotG2 should definitely hold better than AoU next weekend, but AoU will probably have a stronger 8th weekend.

I predict 100M in China. t:

If only these predictions were made in yuan, then there would be no ambiguity

 

[InCali]

One thing I just noticed is that for Age of Ultron, father's day was on its 8th weekend, and not on the 7th like it is for GotG2. So GotG2 should definitely hold better than AoU next weekend, but AoU will probably have a stronger 8th weekend.

If only these predictions were made in yuan, then there would be no ambiguity

Yuan or dollar.....doesn't matter to me. Sometimes I just feel like in need to go out on a limb.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Might barely hit $370M on Thursday, since it's dropping less and increasing higher than the first Guardians.