Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[iEquinox]

Might barely hit $370M on Thursday, since it's dropping less and increasing higher than the first Guardians.

It will get pretty close to that little milestone on thurday and reach it on friday. Then it should get to 375M during the next set of weekdays.

I would use another MCU movie(one that opened in May) to compare it to, since Guardians was already in the 2nd week of September with schools open. That makes direct comparisons unnecessarily difficult.

 

[iEquinox]

As expected it's losing a lot of theaters this weekend, because there are so many new wide releases taking up space(even Wonder Woman will lose 147 theaters). It will lose 1,098(37.7% of theaters), so it will have 1,813 theaters left. AoU only lost 315 before its 7th weekend, so this will definitely hurt GotG2's legs in comparison.

AoU still had 2,156 left on its 7th weekend, but GotG2 will still have more theaters than IM3(1,649) and CW(1,434) had. Next weekend Transformers is the only wide release, so it should hold on to its theaters a bit better next week. There's also Father's Day this weekend which will soften the drop.

 

[ultradog]

Deadline is estimating $4.8M for GotG2 this weekend, which easily beats AoU's 7th weekend of $3.7M.
It has been doing better and better against AoU over the last several weeks now.

$390M domestic now looks like a sure thing.

It will end this weekend close to $375M, and AoU did $14+M from this point.
GotG2 will beat AoU consistently from here on out, and get at least the $15+M more it needs to reach $390M.

 

[Iceman]

Funny how a property like Guardians which was unknown before the first film can now not get excited even about a close to $400m domestic lol.

 

[marcvader]

GOTG2

 

[iEquinox]

Deadline is estimating $4.8M for GotG2 this weekend, which easily beats AoU's 7th weekend of $3.7M.
It has been doing better and better against AoU over the last several weeks now.

$390M domestic now looks like a sure thing.

It will end this weekend close to $375M, and AoU did $14+M from this point.
GotG2 will beat AoU consistently from here on out, and get at least the $15+M more it needs to reach $390M.

Yeah it should beat AoU going forward. The difference is smaller than it seems though, because GotG2 has Father's Day this weekend, while AoU had it next weekend. If AoU had Father's Day as well it would have made about $4.2M this weekend.

This hold is very impressive for GotG2 because it lost so many theaters(it lost 1,098 compared to 315 for AoU). The per theater average actually went up from last weekend, even after deducting the extra Father's Day gross. So those theaters it lost must have mostly been smaller theaters where it wasn't making much money anyway. I was worried that it was going to have a bigger effect on this weekend.

So, assuming that the $4.8M number holds, and assuming it beats AoU from this point forward the minimum it would make is 388.9M.

I'll use Iron Man as a comparison to see what GotG2's ceiling should be. Iron Man made $5.6M this weekend(also Father's Day), and GotG2 shouldn't be able to make as much as IM did going forward. (IM also had a very strong $4.0M next weekend). If it did make as much as IM did from now on, it would end with 395M.

So it looks like should definitely finish somewhere between $389-395M.
If I had to guess I would say 391-392M looks most likely right now.

 

[Tymminator]

I'm just kinda amazed three movies in that I've really enjoyed every comic-based movie this year so far without exception. That sure as heck didn't happen last year by this point in time.

I hope this keeps up for the rest of the year.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah, I still don't see $390 million happening.

The film is down to 1800 theaters now, and I dunno. I think it gets pushed out of theaters before it hits that mark. $375-$385 million seems like the new ceiling.

 

[ultradog]

Yeah, I still don't see $390 million happening.

The film is down to 1800 theaters now, and I dunno. I think it gets pushed out of theaters before it hits that mark. $375-$385 million seems like the new ceiling.

$375-$385M? Dude, it will be right near $375M literally tomorrow. The only way it doesn't get past $385M is if the world ends before September, which I guess is always a possibility, especially considering current President Man-Baby.

It will be in theaters well into September, just like all the other MCU May releases. From this point, it's easy to calculate, no guessing games required, from the previous MCU movies history.

99.9% chance it finishes within 2M of $391M.

 

[Erzengel]

It'll surpass Spider-Man 2 and settle in at #8 all time domestically and #9 ww comic book movie of all time.

 

[iEquinox]

Yeah, I still don't see $390 million happening.

The film is down to 1800 theaters now, and I dunno. I think it gets pushed out of theaters before it hits that mark. $375-$385 million seems like the new ceiling.

Ceiling? So you think there's absolutely no chance at all that it passes $385M whatsoever, and that even $375M may not happen?

FYI, according to current weekend estimates, it will pass $375M on monday. So $375 can't be the ceiling, unless, as ultradog said, some kind of apocalypse occurs before then.

Even if it only makes as much as IM3 did from this weekend forward, it would still get to $382M. And IM3 made less than $3M this weekend(almost 40% less than GotG2's 4.8M estimate), and if you're wondering, it also had only 1,649 theaters left, which is fewer than GotG2's 1,813 theaters, so that should definitely not be a problem.

I don't see any reason why 375-385M would be the absolute best case scenario.

 

[TheVileOne]

No between $375-$385 million. $382 million would be within the range I predicted. The only number I really want it to beat right now is $873 million worldwide.

 

[iEquinox]

No between $375-$385 million. $382 million would be within the range I predicted. The only number I really want it to beat right now is $873 million worldwide.

Yes, $382M is within that range. It would have to suddenly start getting huge drops to end that low. My post shows how unlikely it is for this to end below $385M.

Can I ask why you're expecting it to make significantly less than AoU from now on? GotG2 has outgrossed AoU's daily numbers for quite a few days in a row now, and the difference is only getting bigger. Why do you expect that to suddenly chance so drastically? Doesn't make sense to me.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Guardians 2 made $5M in it's 7th weekend, dropping only 21.1%, .7% less than how much the first one dropped in it's 7th weekend, with its domestic total now $100K away from hitting $375M and its worldwide total now nearing $845M WW. Come on, guys. Let's get these estimates to come up $100K higher in the actuals the next day, so we can get this beast going to a potential 50/50 chance of a final domestic gross of barely $400M.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yes, $382M is within that range. It would have to suddenly start getting huge drops to end that low. My post shows how unlikely it is for this to end below $385M.

Can I ask why you're expecting it to make significantly less than AoU from now on? GotG2 has outgrossed AoU's daily numbers for quite a few days in a row now, and the difference is only getting bigger. Why do you expect that to suddenly chance so drastically? Doesn't make sense to me.

It's just that the field is getting a lot more competitive and it will be dropping from more theaters too.

 

[iEquinox]

It's just that the field is getting a lot more competitive and it will be dropping from more theaters too.

By using other MCU movies released on the same weekend as a comparison, those things are already taken into account.

Can you explain why you think competition/losing theaters would affect GotG2 in such an extreme way? Much more than it affected Age of Ultron, Iron Man 3, Civil War, Iron Man, Thor, Iron Man 2 and The Avengers? Even though it has shown much better legs than the majority of those movies? I can't think of any logical reason why it would suddenly start crumbling so much faster compared to all of those movies.

 

[iEquinox]

Guardians 2 made $5M in it's 7th weekend, dropping only 21.1%, .7% less than how much the first one dropped in it's 7th weekend, with its domestic total now $100K away from hitting $375M and its worldwide total now nearing $845M WW. Come on, guys. Let's get these estimates to come up $100K higher in the actuals the next day, so we can get this beast going to a potential 50/50 chance of a final domestic gross of barely $400M.

That just shows the incredible late legs GotG1 had. Even without the benefit of a holiday it still managed a drop similar to GotG2 which needed a lot of help from Father's Day to achieve that drop. (according to the estimates, GotG2 will make more this sunday than it did last sunday, so Father's Day is a big factor here)

It needs a lot more than an extra $100K to make $400M a 50/50 chance though. If it comes in a few million higher than estimated it might have a shot.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

That just shows the incredible late legs GotG1 had. Even without the benefit of a holiday it still managed a drop similar to GotG2 which needed a lot of help from Father's Day to achieve that drop. (according to the estimates, GotG2 will make more this sunday than it did last sunday, so Father's Day is a big factor here)

It needs a lot more than an extra $100K to make $400M a 50/50 chance though. If it comes in a few million higher than estimated it might have a shot.

Well, right now, Guardians 2 is almost $69M ahead of Guardians 1. If it can keep up at that pace with some help from holiday weekends (the 4th of July being next), it might have a shot at $400M before its too late.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

At least for next weekend Guardians should be fine, theater-wise. There's only one big release, T5, and there's still a lot of slack even after last weekend's cuts. Baywatch is fading fast, and both It Comes at Night and Meagan Leavey (a film I feel bad for) are bombing and don't have big studios behind them. That's 5,000+ theaters that aren't performing so I expect some big hits there. The Mummy isn't going to be on 4,000+ screens next weekend either. Guardians will take some lumps but I'd be surprised if it fell below 1,000 theaters through the 4th. And it probably won't fall that much. On a per theater basis it outgrossed Rough Night and Underpants this weekend n addition to all the other films I mentioned except Mummy, and it wasn't all that far behind Mummy, either.

 

[iEquinox]

Well, right now, Guardians 2 is almost $69M ahead of Guardians 1. If it can keep up at that pace with some help from holiday weekends (the 4th of July being next), it might have a shot at $400M before its too late.

I would love for it to accomplish that, but I don't think GotG2 can keep up with GotG's late legs. GotG has the best legs for a modern superhero movie. Best legs in over 20 years for a superhero movie with 40M+ OW.

And it very far behind "that pace" right now. GotG made 8.1M this weekend compared to GotG2's under $5M weekend. GotG2 won't even make as much over this entire week as GotG made over this weekend alone. Even though GotG2 has the benefit of summer weekdays and Father's Day to help it.

You say it could outpace GotG with help of a small holiday like the 4th of July, but GotG is far ahead this week, had virtually no competition for months, and held on to its theaters much better. Meanwhile GotG2 is in the middle of summer facing strong competition.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: GotG is not a good comparison. The differences between it and GotG2 are just way too big. Any MCU movie released in the first weekend of May should be a better comparison. Iron Man is probably the best comparison if you want to make a reaslistic prediction for what the ceiling for GotG2 is right now.

I don't think $400M is completely impossible, but it looks very unlikely if you look at comparisons like Iron Man, which had better legs and a stronger weekend, even if it replicates Iron Man's numbers it only gets to $395M. I think the only way it can still get to $400M is if Disney gives it a push; a re-expansion later on in its run. It needs a The Avengers style re-expansion. The Avengers went up from 123 to 1,705 theaters in its 18th weekend, giving it a +1,557% weekend increase. That gave it an extra 3M+. Maybe if GotG2 gets close Disney could be tempted to do something like that. I wouldn't count on it though.

 

[InCali]

It's at 375M (basically) now with a 5M weekend, I would expect it to end up around 390M. I can't see it hitting 873M at this point, but 3 years ago who would have seen GotG being at the same BO ballpark as a Batman/Superman/Wonder Woman movie? People who were in need of psychiatric treatment.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I would love for it to accomplish that, but I don't think GotG2 can keep up with GotG's late legs. GotG has the best legs for a modern superhero movie. Best legs in over 20 years for a superhero movie with 40M+ OW.

And it very far behind "that pace" right now. GotG made 8.1M this weekend compared to GotG2's under $5M weekend. GotG2 won't even make as much over this entire week as GotG made over this weekend alone. Even though GotG2 has the benefit of summer weekdays and Father's Day to help it.

You say it could outpace GotG with help of a small holiday like the 4th of July, but GotG is far ahead this week, had virtually no competition for months, and held on to its theaters much better. Meanwhile GotG2 is in the middle of summer facing strong competition.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: GotG is not a good comparison. The differences between it and GotG2 are just way too big. Any MCU movie released in the first weekend of May should be a better comparison. Iron Man is probably the best comparison if you want to make a reaslistic prediction for what the ceiling for GotG2 is right now.

I don't think $400M is completely impossible, but it looks very unlikely if you look at comparisons like Iron Man, which had better legs and a stronger weekend, even if it replicates Iron Man's numbers it only gets to $395M. I think the only way it can still get to $400M is if Disney gives it a push; a re-expansion later on in its run. It needs a The Avengers style re-expansion. The Avengers went up from 123 to 1,705 theaters in its 18th weekend, giving it a +1,557% weekend increase. That gave it an extra 3M+. Maybe if GotG2 gets close Disney could be tempted to do something like that. I wouldn't count on it though.

Well, we'll see what happens.

 

[TheVileOne]

By using other MCU movies released on the same weekend as a comparison, those things are already taken into account.

Can you explain why you think competition/losing theaters would affect GotG2 in such an extreme way? Much more than it affected Age of Ultron, Iron Man 3, Civil War, Iron Man, Thor, Iron Man 2 and The Avengers? Even though it has shown much better legs than the majority of those movies? I can't think of any logical reason why it would suddenly start crumbling so much faster compared to all of those movies.

We'll see.

 

[GeckoMoria]

It's at 375M (basically) now with a 5M weekend, I would expect it to end up around 390M. I can't see it hitting 873M at this point, but 3 years ago who would have seen GotG being at the same BO ballpark as a Batman/Superman/Wonder Woman movie? People who were in need of psychiatric treatment.

It doesn't have to, it has already made more money than BvS. BvS cost 250 with at least 150 million in marketing costs. Vol 2 budget is 200 mill and it's marketing budget considerably less than BvS. it has already surpassed it domestically which counts slightly more for companies.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I'm really happy about how this film has preformed. BRAVO!