Which Superhero Movie will be the Box Office King 2023?

[Kev4000]

My tip is:
1. GOTG3
2. Antman 3
3. Aquaman

 

[Filmfreak]

• Ant-Man never made much of a fuss.
• Aquaman 2 won't touch the numbers of its predecessor. General audience seems to have lost interest in the DCEU and the movie is reported to be a mess that they don't want to spend another dime reshooting.
• Blue Beetle might be a good movie but it certainly doesn't look like a big hit for now.
• Kraven will undoubtedly be the one that makes the least money, just like last year's obvious choice was Morbin time.
• Spider-Verse could be the underdog, but based on the numbers of the first film and the fact that it's not live action I don't see it as #1.
• The Flash could very much be that film in another universe where the Ezra Miller debacle wouldn't have existed, but, alas, it does.

It's a toss up between The Marvels and Guardians and my money right now is on the latter.

 

[Bayne]

I agree it's a toss-up between the Marvels and the Guardians but I think the Marvels have the better shot. Neither Guardians film even hit 870m compared to Captain Marvel's 1.1b. And Carol's later appearances actually seem more popular than her solo film. Plus the Marvels will have more of team-up vibe which tends to be good news for the box office, too.

Granted, Guardians has the whole emotional last hurrah for the team angle which could definitely put more butts in seats. But will that really be enough to make the difference? I remain skeptical.

 

[Filmfreak]

I agree it's a toss-up between the Marvels and the Guardians but I think the Marvels have the better shot. Neither Guardians film even hit 870m compared to Captain Marvel's 1.1b. And Carol's later appearances actually seem more popular than her solo film. Plus the Marvels will have more of team-up vibe which tends to be good news for the box office, too.

Granted, Guardians has the whole emotional last hurrah for the team angle which could definitely put more butts in seats. But will that really be enough to make the difference? I remain skeptical.

Guardians 2 not making a billion after the huge success of the first one is why I think The Marvels is a serious contender for the #1 spot. But at the same time I also think that Infinity War helped boosted the numbers a bit for the latter. That and Marvel finally making a female lead superhero film in 2019. Not that it still wouldn't have performed good otherwise, just not as good. Also Guardians 2 might not have had the reception of the first one but it was still better than the one for Captain Marvel, both for critics and audience. And I remember reading that Ms. Marvel had the lowest viewership for any Marvel show. All those factors making me think that Vol. 3 may be the front runner this year, but I wouldn't be surprised either way.

 

[NotNickFury]

The Marvels doesn't have Captain Marvel's advantage of being sandwiched between Infinity War and Endgame or being touted as a sort of 'must see' film for the next Avengers movie. It'll do well, but a billion? I'm doubtful right now. Not to mention that Mission Impossible, Oppenheimer, and Barbie, the undisputed Best Picture of 2023, will still be in theaters. Yeah, The Marvels will take screens from them, but they'll still be competing for movie eyeballs.

Even though I don't like Guardians Vol. 2, with Vol. 3 being, right now, Gunn's last hurrah with the Guardians, I think that could maybe tip it over if the film is billed as the gang's last big outing.

 

[Erzengel]

GOTG3 with Ant-Man 3 as a dark horse. That's if Kraven doesn't clean up.

 

[Bayne]

Guardians 2 not making a billion after the huge success of the first one is why I think The Marvels is a serious contender for the #1 spot. But at the same time I also think that Infinity War helped boosted the numbers a bit for the latter. That and Marvel finally making a female lead superhero film in 2019. Not that it still wouldn't have performed good otherwise, just not as good. Also Guardians 2 might not have had the reception of the first one but it was still better than the one for Captain Marvel, both for critics and audience. And I remember reading that Ms. Marvel had the lowest viewership for any Marvel show. All those factors making me think that Vol. 3 may be the front runner this year, but I wouldn't be surprised either way.

Infinity War didn't help Ant-man and the Wasp. And if IW/Endgame did help Thor Ragnarok or Spider-man Far From Home - which I suppose could have happened theoretically - it still didn't result in Thor 4 and SM 3 dipping lower due to not having an Avengers movie in proximity. IMO, the 'Avengers bump' that people constantly tout about Captain Marvel is just nonsense. Especially in the sense of saying that the Marvels will do less well for that reason alone.

The fact that it was the first Marvel female superhero and a sort of event film for that reason is true. How much that helped exactly is impossible to say, as is how much that help will or won't still be around for the sequel. But, imo, the fact that Captain Marvel had a much more normal box office profile than, say, Black Panther, at least somewhat implies that it was more a success as a film and a character than it was as a 'Finally there's a woman starring in a marvel movie' event.

As for Ms. Marvel's viewership, it may have been lower but I bet it was also a fairly different type of audience compared to the MCU standard which could mean it would still be a good bonus to have since there might actually be people in there who genuinely wouldn't have considered watching a movie like the Marvels otherwise. And the film is also going to star Monica Rambeau, too, who (in her current adult casting) was introduced as a major character in WandaVision which was actually one of the *most* popular D+ series.

The Marvels doesn't have Captain Marvel's advantage of being sandwiched between Infinity War and Endgame or being touted as a sort of 'must see' film for the next Avengers movie. It'll do well, but a billion? I'm doubtful right now. Not to mention that Mission Impossible, Oppenheimer, and Barbie, the undisputed Best Picture of 2023, will still be in theaters. Yeah, The Marvels will take screens from them, but they'll still be competing for movie eyeballs.

Even though I don't like Guardians Vol. 2, with Vol. 3 being, right now, Gunn's last hurrah with the Guardians, I think that could maybe tip it over if the film is billed as the gang's last big outing.

IMO, there is a very real probability that none of these movies will make a billion. Not without China, and I don't expect any of them to be released in China.

 

[Filmfreak]

Infinity War didn't help Ant-man and the Wasp. And if IW/Endgame did help Thor Ragnarok or Spider-man Far From Home - which I suppose could have happened theoretically - it still didn't result in Thor 4 and SM 3 dipping lower due to not having an Avengers movie in proximity. IMO, the 'Avengers bump' that people constantly tout about Captain Marvel is just nonsense. Especially in the sense of saying that the Marvels will do less well for that reason alone.

The fact that it was the first Marvel female superhero and a sort of event film for that reason is true. How much that helped exactly is impossible to say, as is how much that help will or won't still be around for the sequel. But, imo, the fact that Captain Marvel had a much more normal box office profile than, say, Black Panther, at least somewhat implies that it was more a success as a film and a character than it was as a 'Finally there's a woman starring in a marvel movie' event.

As for Ms. Marvel's viewership, it may have been lower but I bet it was also a fairly different type of audience compared to the MCU standard which could mean it would still be a good bonus to have since there might actually be people in there who genuinely wouldn't have considered watching a movie like the Marvels otherwise. And the film is also going to star Monica Rambeau, too, who (in her current adult casting) was introduced as a major character in WandaVision which was actually one of the *most* popular D+ series.

I actually meant to say that Endgame helped a little, the movie that came directly after Captain Marvel. Who says Ant-Man wasn't given a similar boost by Infinity War, though? The fact that it still didn't do all that great doesn't mean that it wouldn't have done worse without it. It probably means that not many people really care about Peyton Reed's Ant-Man.

Spider-Man is a beast on its own. He's by far the most famous Marvel character and they made a multiverse movie with crossover from all previous entries. Of course it would break the box office.

Thor 4 did similar numbers to Thor 3 but l said it before and I'll say it again. Ragnarok came after Dark World that is considered the worst movie in the whole of MCU. Love & Thunder came after Ragnarok that is considered top tier MCU. That and featuring Guardians of the Galaxy should have resulted to a much better performance, even without China and Russia.

That being said I don't think that either of those movies were helped by The Avengers films in the box office.

In any case I wouldn't expect a sequel to Captain Marvel to do similar numbers even for reception reasons of the first movie alone. I think it may go down to how well received the second film will be.

 

[Milk Tray Guy]

My guess is Guardians 3. The Flash could have given it a run (sorry for the pun) if not for the Ezra Miller controversies. That said, I still think The Flash will do pretty well.

 

[Deck Rickard]

I hope The Marvels makes a billion and change so it sends all the incels and MAGAts into a rage.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

I'm rooting for The Marvels.

 

[Sithborg]

Its going to be between The Marvels and Aquaman. Ant-man and GOTG have proven themselves to be steady earners, with not much in terms of growth. Personally, I am hoping for an underdog showing of Spider-verse, that all the awards and positive word of mouth has grown its audience over the years, but I am realistic about its prospects. Shazam, not likely to break out, but I hope it does better than Black Adam. I just do not see hype building for Flash.

 

[Iceman]

Probably between The Marvels and GotG3. Ant Man should do fine too with Kang boosting it and the family element with 3 generations of the family in it together.

 

[Bayne]

I actually meant to say that Endgame helped a little, the movie that came directly after Captain Marvel. Who says Ant-Man wasn't given a similar boost by Infinity War, though? The fact that it still didn't do all that great doesn't mean that it wouldn't have done worse without it. It probably means that not many people really care about Peyton Reed's Ant-Man.

Spider-Man is a beast on its own. He's by far the most famous Marvel character and they made a multiverse movie with crossover from all previous entries. Of course it would break the box office.

Thor 4 did similar numbers to Thor 3 but l said it before and I'll say it again. Ragnarok came after Dark World that is considered the worst movie in the whole of MCU. Love & Thunder came after Ragnarok that is considered top tier MCU. That and featuring Guardians of the Galaxy should have resulted to a much better performance, even without China and Russia.

That being said I don't think that either of those movies were helped by The Avengers films in the box office.

In any case I wouldn't expect a sequel to Captain Marvel to do similar numbers even for reception reasons of the first movie alone. I think it may go down to how well received the second film will be.

Thor and Spider-man were also hyped up as connected to IW/Endgame and also came out directly alongside those movies. There is no logical reason to attribute Captain Marvel's success to the Avengers but not attribute those movies' success to the Avengers.

And the idea that maybe Ant-man and the Wasp really did get an 'avengers boost' doesn't make much sense considering the difference between Ant-man and Ant-man and the Wasp is basically the same as the difference between Guardians vol 1 and vol 2. Or between Iron Man 1 and 2. It was a very normal level sequel with no sign of overperforming whatsoever.

As for Love and Thunder, the fact that Ragnarok was more popular than the Dark World hardly proves that Love and Thunder was suffering from a lack of an Avengers tie-in. If anything, the issue with Love and Thunder only barely improving on Ragnarok's numbers has to do with Love and Thunder being one of the more controversial/disliked movies Marvel has put out in a while. Even people who love Ragnarok's style and humor were slagging off Love and Thunder's jokes and story.

Its going to be between The Marvels and Aquaman. Ant-man and GOTG have proven themselves to be steady earners, with not much in terms of growth. Personally, I am hoping for an underdog showing of Spider-verse, that all the awards and positive word of mouth has grown its audience over the years, but I am realistic about its prospects. Shazam, not likely to break out, but I hope it does better than Black Adam. I just do not see hype building for Flash.

Aquaman without its China box office was a Guardians of the Galaxy level success, so unless you have some reason to believe it will manage massive growth in the sequel it really doesn't stand that much chance of being the top film (unless the other films underperform or Aquaman 2 by some miracle actually does get a China release).

 

[Sithborg]

Aquaman without its China box office was a Guardians of the Galaxy level success, so unless you have some reason to believe it will manage massive growth in the sequel it really doesn't stand that much chance of being the top film (unless the other films underperform or Aquaman 2 by some miracle actually does get a China release).

Aquaman still did better than GOTG when China is subtracted from both totals. It doesn't need massive growth to beat out GOTG.

 

[Bayne]

Aquaman still did better than GOTG when China is subtracted from both totals. It doesn't need massive growth to beat out GOTG.

It's still a hundred million under Captain Marvel, even with China subtracted from CM.

 

[BoredGuy]

Rootin for GOTG 3 but I get the feeling it could be Aquaman... apparently people love cheesy movies that take place in the water lol

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I think it will be GOTG3. Especially after the Holiday Special which was really good and well received.

I do hope they're all successful but kinda rooting for The Marvels as well.

 

[The Joker]

The competition isn't exactly stiff here. I'd say GOTG 3.

 

[Deck Rickard]

Rootin for GOTG 3 but I get the feeling it could be Aquaman... apparently people love cheesy movies that take place in the water lol

For the life of me, I can’t understand how Aquaman made a billion dollars. Was competition just really weak at the time? Aside from (some) good visuals and an… okay lead performance from Momoa, I thought that movie was pretty much trash.

 

[Sithborg]

For the life of me, I can’t understand how Aquaman made a billion dollars. Was competition just really weak at the time? Aside from (some) good visuals and an… okay lead performance from Momoa, I thought that movie was pretty much trash.

I mean, there are some films that just quitely make a billion. Joker and JW3 both surprised me.

 

[Deck Rickard]

I mean, there are some films that just quitely make a billion. Joker and JW3 both surprised me.

Haha fair point. In the case of JW3, I guess they were right when they decided that what people really wanted to see were a bunch of ugly locusts and Chris Pratt holding his hand up a lot.

 

[Batgirl0202]

I hope The Marvels makes a billion and change so it sends all the incels and MAGAts into a rage.

I'm rooting for The Marvels.

Probably between The Marvels and GotG3. Ant Man should do fine too with Kang boosting it and the family element with 3 generations of the family in it together.

Agree on all points. I'm personally rooting for The Marvels which got my vote, because event-level genre films anchored by women should only be encouraged in my opinion.

Realistically speaking though, Guardians has the coveted summer kick-off slot so I could see that taking the gold this year...

I see this year's dark horse as being Quantumania. Marvel is positioning the film as a buildup installment to a much larger event, which audiences tend to lap up...

I personally don't see any of the DCEU whimper films breaking out to a huge extent, and Spider-Verse probably has a ceiling based on the performance of the original, quality notwithstanding.

 

[Iceman]

Agree on all points. I'm personally rooting for The Marvels which got my vote, because event-level genre films anchored by women should only be encouraged in my opinion.

Realistically speaking though, Guardians has the coveted summer kick-off slot so I could see that taking the gold this year...

I see this year's dark horse as being Quantumania. Marvel is positioning the film as a buildup installment to a much larger event, which audiences tend to lap up...

I personally don't see any of the DCEU whimper films breaking out to a huge extent, and Spider-Verse probably has a ceiling based on the performance of the original, quality notwithstanding.

True. Imagine if Quantumania gets surprisingly good reviews and Kang becomes a must-see for what he might do in future in the mega event films (Thanos didn't have this to the same extent). If the film is surprisingly good and much differentiated from the quality of the Ant Man films to date it could see some significant upside. But yeah Marvels and GotG are otherwise competing for top MCU spot.

 

[NotNickFury]

For the life of me, I can’t understand how Aquaman made a billion dollars. Was competition just really weak at the time? Aside from (some) good visuals and an… okay lead performance from Momoa, I thought that movie was pretty much trash.

Competition wasn't weak at all. In fact, many were betting against Aquaman considering it had to compete with the likes of Bumblebee, Spider-Verse, and Mary Poppins Returns. If James Wan still had his Twitter account, I'd be able to find the tweet where he called out how so many people bet that Aquaman would be a flop. The film just had good legs. Swimming legs. Plus, like Sith said, some movies just make a billion.