Will Marvel Studios retain or lose its winning streak in 2016?

First off isn't Superman an A lister who probably should be Batman or even Spider-Man's class?

Superman is an A lister in America. His domestic numbers show that. Only Batman and Iron-Man are solo heroes that top MoS domestic BO.

In an ideal world with a better movie, MOS should have been higher than Cap's movies.

MoS outperformed TWS in most American-influenced countries, not to mention far above The First Avenger. TWS was also helped by being a sequel and an Avengers boost. The foreign market is where MoS faltered most, and in some of these markets, Superman is not an A-lister. Understand that there are parts of the world that don't really know Superman, just like there are parts of the world that just wasn't that excited about Star Wars.

It's almost like the TASM2 debate and while it made almost as much WW as GOTG, TWS, & DOFP it was still considered a disappointment.

Not exactly the same situation. TASM2 was another sequel for a character that has a WW merchandise sales that tops Batman and Superman combined.

And if you're comparing MOS to TDW, even with Marvel fans the general consensus is that TDW is one of the least favorite MCU movies.

I'm explaining the idea of variance. If you would like, I could simply use Age of Ultron's 76% and an average score of 6.7. It's Tomato score is 1.36x of MoS while it's average score is 1.08x MoS by the same critics. It has a significantly higher critic acceptance rating with a minimally higher average score. This shows MoS was hit & miss with the critics, while AoU was just getting by in comparison.
 
Oh, MoS did receive a mixed reception, but mostly so by the critics. Every fan indicator speaks otherwise. Even the well regarded RT site shows an average of 3.9/5 rating for MoS by the audience. That's also a pretty significant sample size of 440,000 people. That's compared to the 6.2/10 average for the 289 critics. The word "divisive" is great for the explanation of critic response to MoS though. RT gave MoS a 56% with an average score of 6.2/10. RT gave Thor: TDW a 66% with the same average of 6.2/10. This shows a larger standard deviation for MoS. In other words, critics opinions mostly varied with a mix of strong vs low grades. Thor, on the other hand, had less of a standard deviation and got by with moderate grades. That seems to fit the approach by the two companies. WB swings for the fences and gets home runs and strikeouts. Marvel aims for the base hit.

Sorry but I'm not getting into this debate again, it's old hat.
The claim that WB "swings for the fences" while Marvel aims for the base hit is also inaccurate and reductive especially when you consider that we're in a thread dedicated to Marvel's "winning streak". WB gets all my fanboy love and respect for the Nolan trilogy but their track record has been incredibly weak for several decades.

What is this $100 million dollar difference? MoS exceeded TWS by 30 million domestic. TWS exceeded MoS by 45 million in WW market. Also, domestic market has better return profit.

What is this 100 million gross figure?

The 100 million figure comes when you include the production budget in the calculations using the only numbers we know from box office mojo. Man of Steel had a higher budget which directly effects how much of a profit it brings it, bringing the difference in the net gross of each movie to $543 million for TWS and 443 for MoS.

I'm not sure how Deadline made those calculations. I don't think you do either.

It says in those links I provided. They factor in production budgets, P&A, talent participations and other costs, with box office grosses, and ancillary revenues from VOD to DVD and TV. Seems like a fairly comprehensive list and given the astronomical difference between the two figures they have for these movies (a staggering 123.5 million) are you really going to try and argue that there's a chance MoS could've found that 123.5 million somewhere else?

Deadline does a breakdown, but doesn't show product placement figures, and thus we only know MoS and not TWS figures in that category. Also, what isn't shown, is profit due to merchandise sales. There are stats that show Superman merchandise exceeds Captain America merchandise by quite a bit, but we don't know how that's correlated with the two movies. The Force Awakens shows that it's 2 billion at the box office in minimal compared to the money it made in merchandise which is over 10x that box office figure.

Oh wow, you are.
I'll tell you what I told Marvin: any argument you can make regarding unknown figures effecting MoS' net profit goes both ways. I'm sure that Winter Soldier also made a healthy bit of money back in product placement and merchandise, making that one hundred and twenty three million dollar gap just that much wider. I'm not sure why you're trying to swim upstream and disagree with the results, but have at it.
 
@the shape,
You’re entitled to your opinion.
It’s pretty interesting what one defines the difference between an interest, a passion and an obsession these days. I imagine it boils down to what best makes the point. As long as you yourself aren’t claiming that what you think to be facts. Either way it's safe to say I don’t agree.

It is however worth noting that I have to mention time and again that there are a crap ton of arguments on this discussion that I simply ignore for various reasons, but what does that matter in the world of dichotomous rhetoric or observation. Months and months of avoiding the issue isn’t enough to dispel anything. It would take one actively agreeing with detraction for the point to be made, however as some are keen to note I don’t spend any time here bashing films or putting down films, for I don’t see this place as one to crap fans artistic passions for absolutely no gain but to ‘put it out there’. Maybe the studios will take note and it will yield some actual result? Maybe people will change their mind and go from loving something to hating it and I can say you are welcome...Probably won’t be happening anytime soon. What’s more I do this ‘thing’ with a whole lot more movies than just mos, perhaps I'm unhealthily'obsessed' with about 9 movies here, either way there just happens to be the matter of mos being around for 3 years whereas the conversation shifts from TMNT1 into 2 in not as many. Lastly, outside of my own interest, every so often I get some sort of PM from some common fan of something I’ve defended thanking or expressing some kind thought to or about me taking up for their passion in a positive manner, ignoring the encouragement, it serves to remind me what I too felt when first joined and saw my passions **** on and or defended. I do find something like this actually productive for fans having something they love..or at least having the hate for it asked to stand up to some from of scrutiny might make someone's day. I know as a fan it makes mine.

As for me and this FlintMarko in particular, yes I’m sure as he’s claiming, now that he can piggy back your assertion, his frank ‘obsession’(as he stated) has nothing to do with mos, years and years of his presence in all things negativity/rate mos/skepticism threads as you have now highlighted, apparently has been about marvin’s pandantry, even with copious amounts of posts of this same nature that have nothing to do with marvin. Nah, he’s done plenty of hating of such things without me as the scapegoat but as long as he can dress it all up as he pursuit to quell a obsessed man more power to him. As for why he brought himself into thread to continue as you say, I’m sure it has nothing to do with is own passionate needs to make his own points, we are supposed to just chalk it up to his admitted need to contend with the ‘marvin’. Though I’d argue his reasoning amounts to nothing more than “I think the person I’m disagreeing with is wrong”.

I’m not sure what you mean about our debates leaping threads in this instance. Why am I talking about man of steel? Well outside of it being discussed here already, it’s probably because BvS success supposedly depends on how well that film did, and how well BvS does this particular year is very much the premise of this thread. If we debated mos/tws score in the best score thread you’d be policing the idea that our debate has migrated there as well.

You asked if he’s sick of talking about the various faults and such? An interesting question, for dude claims to either not care for, or thinks it’s middle of the road enough to not be anything at all. If you posed the question to me however, the answer would be simply no. I can talk and discuss art I have a passion for endlessly, especially given my profession, a not so strange thing how that works tbh. Hypothetically; Imagine if you will how long interest in discussion would go if there were only supporters of a film? Now imagine how long if only detractors existed? I’d argue at a certain point one of these groups exists to contend with the other and not simply for the film itself for non interest in something is only so self sustaining. At least relative to the former anyhow. And in that parable you have an impetus for some of the motivation around here. But that’s my opinion.

As for you yourself being sick of seeing the debate, I suggest you ignore it then. This is the nature of public forums, not so much someone spamming your PM space.
 
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Oh they pan out just fine. You constantly argue with reasonable inferences and conventional wisdom just to disagree. Remind me again how FFINO turned out? Or how MoS didn't have a mixed reception? Just two examples of many.
Frankly, your own argument works best against you in this scenario: I'm not convinced that the $160 million in promotional tie-ins was enough to clear the $100 million difference in TWS and MoS' box office given that, you're exactly right, we don't know what TWS made back either. You're seemingly ignoring that this goes both ways in favor of painting a more favorable picture for the movie we know grossed 100 million less than the other. To try and dance around that pretty significant difference to fudge the numbers in favor of the loser is pedantic and trivial, but that's par for the course I guess.
Oh, and just some research to put this nonsense to bed:

Deadline speculated* the net profit for TWS to be $166.2 million, compared to a paltry $42.7 million for Warner Bros.

Sources:...
Guess I'll chalk this up as another one of my attempts that "panned out".

I’m sorry but what you claim as ‘reasonable inference and conventional wisdom’ is more often than not just unprovable facts that everyone is suppose to swallow because well that's just how we do around here. That we can just claim anything as evidence of anything we want cause well you know conventional wisdom and things like that. That’s what your point amounts to. This can’t be how debates are resolved. Facts and real numbers, not spins and hearsay, what's supposedly popular; the latters may lead to opinions(apparently) but the former leads to things like definitive results and the ability to actually claim someone doesn’t make sense in the midst of the ‘the truth’, 'the fact' etc. You enjoy using such titles without actually putting in the work. We'd probably disagree less if one of these things changed.
Anyhow, when faced with that and you then finally chalk up some real evidence, in the midst of the google scramble you put out some ‘thing’ and claim your work is done for scrutiny of said reporting will then be said to be unnecessary for we are suppose to just generally accept this stuff as authoritative. I’m still curious about that dvd report stuff you pulled out of somewhere only to then pull the old “nothing to see here folks..marvin this marvin that, am I right”

Which brings me to this latest bit of reporting. Yes another one that doesn’t ‘pan out’ unfortunately. Though I’ll give you credit for actually trying this time. What exactly did you research and put said 'nonsense to bed' with this time. Ignoring the wiki stuff(for obvious reasons but also cause it just points to the deadline stuff?)... let’s check out the deadline report instead, the one that opens with “Instead of relying on numbers from studios that would make us susceptible to spin, we instead confidentially engaged two separate experts from entities that regularly create revenue models.” Umm…sorry but this is literally conjecture. They are making their ‘estimates’ based on incomplete information and with straight up un named sources? What accounts for an insider in the world of ad driven internet columns today? Who are these sources, what kinda track record do they have etc..
It’s a known fact that it’s almost impossible to get official studio numbers on things and when it happens, like they said there is often studio agenda in the mix(keep profits low so as to not have to pay RDJ if you will or the opposite). So to get around this mega obstacle this writer does something that amounts to just north of making up his own? How does this resolve the issue of missing facts and the true nature of these differentials? Now I’m not claiming this is all entirely worthless but you do see what I’m getting at don’t you? Especially with any respect to how close the totals actually are and with how you claim to put things to bed.

This, with all it’s suspect nature is what I’m expecting to see(https://pmcdeadline2.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/harry-potter-net-profits.jpg?w=970), instead what did you provide for MOS exactly? Even the comments in that article are asking for something approaching even a makeshift phony breakdown, among other things. What’s more and this is key, their ‘experts’ decide to inflate the mos production budget alone to 258(where’d this come from cause TWS seemed to remain as listed) and they added on another 60 for nolan and the salary of the rest of the producers? Huh? So then, this was also added to that TWS one in some form though its’ not at all indicated in their own makeshift unsourced listed breakdown? Looking at the ‘official’ one from WB what we know for sure is the categories themselves are legit, looking at the total expenses which themselves are massively significant, why am I not seeing a lot of those same categories in the makeshift tws one? Serious question for it paints this as something boarding on a BoMojo speculative list based on things they want to base it on. And before you make it about me and not your actual argument, allow me: why you decided to present this comparison to captain pandantry(excessive concern with minor details and rules) of all people I’ll never know. Unless of course you didn’t care to examine these details for yourself but rather just saw the ‘source’ and left it at that. Which is kinda my entire issue in a nutshell.

You can, as you do, believe whatever you want for that’s your prerogative and clearly informs your opinion but I will call out this sort of ‘stuff’ when presented as anything definitive for it’s like I told you that other time: We aren’t entitled to our own facts. Understand that before you again claim to present them.

As for this “Frankly, your own argument works best against you in this scenario..” Um first of all, 160mill is a confirmed number, this 100 million is conjecture at worse and even less at best. Secondly it’s because we don’t know what TWS has that the question is being raised. You argue that it literally goes both ways and I get that to a point but I’m not sure you do for do you have any reference for the scale of difference..at all? I know I don’t. And 160 is a figure larger than any difference in profit margin you can stretch. Do you know what promotional tie ins are? I actually don’t, I suspect it’s other companies wanting to use your brand to sell their ish. The more known the brand the more companies want to use it to sell their pencils and erasers and hamburgers. More people want to use starwars than want to use a lesser known hellboy, and for this reason. It’s probably not as ‘even’ as you would like to think, then again it might be but I for one am not about to say for sure, thus I’m not the one actually asserting a positive only the possibility of a large discrepancy. I’d back this particular rhetoric up to you of all people with some fittingly timed ‘informed inference’ if you will: That of Superman being more known world wide ‘everyone knows this..’ and more of note, the question as to why mos' promotional tie in number was so publicized to begin with, whereas the other one(s) not so much?

Lastly, I would be careful when throwing around a term like unnecessary debate to describe opposing views. It’s rife with self affirmation and worse. “Why are they disagreeing with me, can’t they see my side if obviously right…” then opposition thoroughly presents a retort beyond "so what". Leading to person falling deeper and deeper into the false belief that their opposition must either just want to disagree with thy divine opinion or that person is simply being overly ‘factual’. The belief so strongly in ones own perspective that they admittedly lack any respect for the existence of an opposing view is the surest way to not see one at all. Looking at how you carry on, that would be how I would describe the experience. But only because you are so eager do describe your own take. Not that it matters at all but this is why I appreciate the posters like The Question, almost never agree but there is grace there. Neither here nor there though.

As for defending the film from all angles, hardly if one actually considers how many angles there possibly are. But again through the eyes of the self important..yea I suppose that would be about all and then some for you yourself have presented ‘all’, and ‘all’ have been attacked of course. And no your hyperbole isn’t lost on me in this moment, I’ve just decided to give it back to you. I do find it a tad irksome that you would reference the mos is divisive discussion without actually acknowledging how it ‘ended’, rather on the note you left it. I suppose it’s easier to simply play off something after the fact as opposed to deliver in the moment.
 
Sorry but I'm not getting into this debate again, it's old hat.
The claim that WB "swings for the fences" while Marvel aims for the base hit is also inaccurate and reductive especially when you consider that we're in a thread dedicated to Marvel's "winning streak". WB gets all my fanboy love and respect for the Nolan trilogy but their track record has been incredibly weak for several decades.

You mean the existence of WB? Marvel is batting 100, but realize what that 100 consists of. Some movies have redder tomatoes than MoS with the same grade. I.E. critics like the movie, but not really love or hate. Critics both hated and loved MoS for the same aspects. While one critic sees a bold decision another critic considers it too much a deviation from the past. That's what the standard deviation is showing, hence the term "divisive". It's love versus hate rather than a just, it was ok.

The 100 million figure comes when you include the production budget in the calculations using the only numbers we know from box office mojo. Man of Steel had a higher budget which directly effects how much of a profit it brings it, bringing the difference in the net gross of each movie to $543 million for TWS and 443 for MoS.

Ah, usually when a person uses gross for BO, it tends to mean income over profit, though profit is reasonable as well. That makes more sense now. However, keep in mind, there's greater profit for domestic than international.



It says in those links I provided. They factor in production budgets, P&A, talent participations and other costs, with box office grosses, and ancillary revenues from VOD to DVD and TV. Seems like a fairly comprehensive list and given the astronomical difference between the two figures they have for these movies (a staggering 123.5 million) are you really going to try and argue that there's a chance MoS could've found that 123.5 million somewhere else?

Yeah, but I didn't see a category that covered that 170 million or whatever for product placement. There was a 25 million other revenue. That's an eye-popping difference!



Oh wow, you are.
I'll tell you what I told Marvin: any argument you can make regarding unknown figures effecting MoS' net profit goes both ways. I'm sure that Winter Soldier also made a healthy bit of money back in product placement and merchandise, making that one hundred and twenty three million dollar gap just that much wider. I'm not sure why you're trying to swim upstream and disagree with the results, but have at it.

You could maybe assume TWS had a healthy amount of merchandise, but you don't know. Maybe TWS had the product placement, but you don't know. We do know MoS made at least 170 million from promotional partners alone. We also know, from the Deadline breakdown, this 170 million isn't accounted for. The only two figures that go above 170 million are domestic and foreign box office which doesn't reflect promotional partners. Other revenue states 25 million, which is 145 million less than the 170 that was reported. That's not accounted for at all. Could TWS have had the same numbers? That wasn't reported, and if it were significant in a similar manner, wouldn't it have been?
 
There is a lot of lies in accounting. Rather than going over numbers that others speculate about, a better indicator is what the studio does after the film as a better measure.
 
When do we stop dismissing Captain America, Iron Man, and Thor as B-listers?
 
When do we stop dismissing Captain America, Iron Man, and Thor as B-listers?

Cap and Iron Man are definitely A-listers. Two best movies in the MCU imo, and will be the two solo heroes with movies over a billion after this year.
 
Marvel and DC will both have a fair share of $2.2B WW for their films.

Marvel/Disney: Civil War - $1.4B WW
Doctor Strange - $800M Worldwide
______________________________
$2.2 billion worldwide

Warner Bros/DC: Batman V. Superman - $1.2B WW
Suicide Squad - $1 billion worldwide
_________________________________________
$2.2 billion worldwide
 
The only reason I'm hesitant to put Iron Man or Cap as A-listers is the fact that their popularity is relatively recent compared to Superman, Batman, and Spider-man who have been worldwide icons for decades. Granted I'm not going to disagree with calling them A-listers as they most certainly are for the moment and while I don't see that changing anytime soon, the argument could be made that the big three are in a league all their own.
 
The only reason I'm hesitant to put Iron Man or Cap as A-listers is the fact that their popularity is relatively recent compared to Superman, Batman, and Spider-man who have been worldwide icons for decades. Granted I'm not going to disagree with calling them A-listers as they most certainly are for the moment and while I don't see that changing anytime soon, the argument could be made that the big three are in a league all their own.

Well, there aren't enough letters in the alphabet if we have to sort the lists so those included are on the same level. I'd say that all the big Avengers are definitive A-listers right now, and possibly the lesser ones as well (and heroes in other franchises as well). The golden age of superhero movies has changed the playing field completely.
 
Mjölnir;32949761 said:
Well, there aren't enough letters in the alphabet if we have to sort the lists so those included are on the same level. I'd say that all the big Avengers are definitive A-listers right now, and possibly the lesser ones as well (and heroes in other franchises as well). The golden age of superhero movies has changed the playing field completely.

Agreed. That's why I spoke with a sort of reluctance to bring that up because you're exactly right, the game has changed.
 
Marvel and DC will both have a fair share of $2.2B WW for their films.

Marvel/Disney: Civil War - $1.4B WW
Doctor Strange - $800M Worldwide
______________________________
$2.2 billion worldwide

Warner Bros/DC: Batman V. Superman - $1.2B WW
Suicide Squad - $1 billion worldwide
_________________________________________
$2.2 billion worldwide



I really can't see Strange making that much money as much as I'm hyped for it.
 
If Strange crosses half a billion I will be pleased, and I think Marvel will as well.
 
I just get an IM 1 feeling from Strange because of Cumberbatch.
 
I think this year is where they'll come a close #2. CA:CW is a sure-fire hit, wouldn't surprise if it hit $300M+ domestic and $1 billion WW (possibly more?).

But BvS is one of the underdogs. A vocal minority is hoping it will fail, but the novel concept of Batman and Superman pitted against each other, plus Wonder Woman, is drawing a lot of attention. Depending on how well its received, it could blow past expectations.

CA:CW doesn't offer anything as novel in comparison.
 
There is some slepticism of Strange due to the director.

Even though i haven't watched any of his films yet, his resume seems very mediocre. Only exception would be Sinister. Exorcism of Emily Rose also has a decent resume from what i see. Anyway, Marvel usualy had a short leash on their Directors. They sort work like Golden Age of Hollywood studios, with the Directors not need to be consistent to crack a very popular film produced by a certain studio, but sometimes being the difference between a good film and a genuine classic (ex. Ant-Man was entertaining, but under Edgar Wright's Directing, it might have been a far superior experience).

Anyway, back to Doctor Strange. It seems like one of Feige's biggest passion project, so i doubt he'll let anyone f*** it up. His choice might have had to do with wanting a "yes man" who wouldn't mess up with the studio's vision.
 

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