Black Widow at the Box Office!

[Web-Head]

Unfortunate.
Black Widow will be the LAST MCU film to try the Disney Plus Experiment.

It better be

 

[Webfoot Hero]

The box office really is driven down by it being available on streaming same day and for unlimited watches. Studios are probably now hoping for a return to normal theater going so they are able to stop same-day streaming.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Unfortunate.
Black Widow will be the LAST MCU film to try the Disney Plus Experiment.

I think it's a bit early to blame the drop solely on PA.

 

[Mysteryman]

Unlike last weekend, there isn't going to be an additional 60 million from Disney Plus.
That WILL have an impact

 

[Iceman]

I hope this does well. I just contributed to this weekend’s take.

 

[Mysteryman]

I hope this does well. I just contributed to this weekend’s take.

EXCELLENT!
Every little bit helps!

 

[Web-Head]

I think it's plenty of factors. A lot of people who were excited to see it probably went opening weekend and then you have those who are still uncomfortable going to the theaters so they watched it at home on Disney Plus. I believe Disney Plus definitely played a factor but for movies to have really strong legs - they need people to go see it again a second or even a third time and I'm just not sure a ton of people are rushing out to see it again. Disney Plus and the piracy of the movie played a factor in that too, I'm sure.

 

[Mysteryman]

It Is also important to note that when they estimate box office for North America, Canada is a part of that.
Most of Canada is still closed.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm more concerned about people watching this illegally right away with crystal clear 4k quality Thats why I'm against with movies being released online the same day they hit theaters.

Like I've said many times, the numbers would have been higher, if it was eXclusive to theaters. And now we are into 2nd weekend, a big drop is showing.

Streaming didn't help Ww84's box office numbers, I don't see why Black Widow won't be different.

 

[Mr. Peanut]

I'm sure Covid is definitely a factor when it comes to repeat viewings, especially all this news about a new strain and whatnot. Like it's one thing to take a bit of a risk to see it once, but each successive time the desire to see it becomes a bit weaker and the feeling that the risk is unecessary becomes stronger.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I'm more concerned about people watching this illegally right away with crystal clear 4k quality Thats why I'm against with movies being released online the same day they hit theaters.

Like I've said many times, the numbers would have been higher, if it was eXclusive to theaters. And now we are into 2nd weekend, a big drop is showing.

Streaming didn't help Ww84's box office numbers, I don't see why Black Widow won't be different.

I'm sure some people pirated the movie instead of going to a theater or paying for PA but it's well-established that people who regularly pirate media would have never paid for it in the first place. Each illegal download doesn't equate to a lost sale. Big drops are to be expected during the pandemic for the reasons Mr. peanut pointed out.

As for WW84, when that movie came out, many countries were in the middle of the worst wave of the pandemic yet. An exclusive theatrical release would not have made much of a difference imo.

I think it's also not clear whether Disney really is leaving money on the table by doing PA. As we know, BW made 80M domestic + 78M international during its opening weekend. And about 52M (65% of 80) and 39M (50% of 78) went to Disney along with 60M from PA for a total of 151M. Now, let's imagine a scenario where Black Widow was a theaters-exclusive release and made an additional 40M (+20 domestic and +20 international) at the boxoffice during its opening weekend. Disney would have then gotten 65M + 50M for a total of 115M. And then let's say that instead of a 69% drop we would be seeing a 59% drop this weekend. That would mean 41M domestic + 41M international during the second weekend so 26.6M domestic and 20M international go to Disney. So between the two weekends (not counting the four weekdays) Disney would have made 161.6M. Only 10M more than it made during its actual opening with boxoffice and PA combined. And I'm sure Disney has made some more cheddar from PA this week and we haven't even added this weekend's boxoffice numbers. What I'm trying to say is that even with a better opening weekend and a smaller 2nd week drop, Disney could have made less (profit) than it is making right now with theatrical+PA.

 

[WeaponXCII]

I saw it opening weekend, so I’ve already contributed to the movie’s box office. I feel like I want to contribute to its second weekend (but also see it again just because it was great), but I’m not entirely sure.

On one hand, unlocking it on Premier Access would contribute to its box office, and they would get the whole take, unlike a theater ticket. On the other hand, it’s only $30, so not likely to make a big difference. Also, I’m not sure if I’m sending the wrong message that I prefer streaming to theater- which I don’t.

What should I do?

 

[Web-Head]

I saw it opening weekend, so I’ve already contributed to the movie’s box office. I feel like I want to contribute to its second weekend (but also see it again just because it was great), but I’m not entirely sure.

On one hand, unlocking it on Premier Access would contribute to its box office, and they would get the whole take, unlike a theater ticket. On the other hand, it’s only $30, so not likely to make a big difference. Also, I’m not sure if I’m sending the wrong message that I prefer streaming to theater- which I don’t.

What should I do?

I would recommend seeing it in theaters a second time and then going from there. I thought about unlocking it with Premier Access but I'm going to pick this up in 4K as soon as it comes out so I don't want to spend the $30 to unlock it on top of another $30 for the physical copy

 

[Comicbookguy339]

25.6M domestic (68% drop) and 29.9M international (62% drop) for this weekend.

 

[Erik Lensherr]

Framing is everything...

This:



vs. this:

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Should also be noted that Black Widow's domestic drop was the same as F9s 2nd weekend drop and that movie wasn't available via streaming. This might just be the reality of the situation for the time being.

 

[psylockolussus]

A quiet Place 2 had a lower 2nd weekend drop by more or less 10%.

And sure Disney gets the entire $30 for themselves but the person that paid $30 could easily be watching the movie with their family and friends for a price of one. If I'm not wrong, once you paid the Disney premiere access of Black Widow, the movie can be rewatched again and again through D+.

When you give that option to people, especially in a middle of a pandemic, there's probably a high percentage of people paying 30 dollars for D+ premiere access (if they aren't watching it illegally) instead of going to the movie theathers to watch Black Widow once or more. And that is how it affects its boX office numbers.

So long term it is not a good idea to release these movies right away online, especially big budgeted movies.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

A quiet Place 2 had a lower 2nd weekend drop by more or less 10%.

And sure Disney gets the entire $30 for themselves but the person that paid $30 could easily be watching the movie with their family and friends for a price of one. If I'm not wrong, once you paid the Disney premiere access of Black Widow, the movie can be rewatched again and again through D+.

When you give that option to people, especially in a middle of a pandemic, there's probably a high percentage of people paying 30 dollars for D+ premiere access (if they aren't watching it illegally) instead of going to the movie theathers to watch Black Widow once or more. And that is how it affects its boX office numbers.

So long term is not a good idea especially for big budgeted movies.

F9 is a better comparison than A Quiet Place 2 though because it's a big budget action movie. I would also venture a guess that blockbusters are currently more front-loaded. The hardcore fans show up during the opening weekend but after that there's a significant drop.

As for PA, the price is $30 because this model is aimed at families. Disney has accounted for the fact that whole families will watch it via a single purchase. I'm sure PA does negatively impact repeat viewings at the theater to a certain extent but I have a feeling we wouldn't be seeing a lot of repeat business anyway. People have gotten used to waiting for a movie to drop on streaming a few months later and a lot of folks are in a much worse financial situation than they were a year ago.

 

[psylockolussus]

Well is Fast & Furious even in the same level as the MCU at the North American boX office? Fate of the Furious grossed $226,008,385. MCU is much bigger in North america and mcu movies had better boX office legs than Fast/Furious movies. While F9 was already out in international market weeks before it debuted in North America... who knows if people in America already saw bootleg of F9?

The point is, there is going to be a difference if Black Widow wasn't released online right away. It could have opened with 100 million (way much more than f9's ow) and who knows if it would have lower a 2nd weekend drop. Hopefully they don't do this to Shang Chi and Eternals.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm sure PA does negatively impact repeat viewings at the theater to a certain extent but I have a feeling we wouldn't be seeing a lot of repeat business anyway. People have gotten used to waiting for a movie to drop on streaming a few months later and a lot of folks are in a much worse financial situation than they were a year ago.

The Croods 2 surprisingly had a 4x multiplier.

I don't think Croods 2 was released straight to streaming

 

[Web-Head]

Framing is everything...

This:



vs. this:

Film Updates is very clickbaity with their captions. Post stuff like that just for the reactions

 

[Filmfreak]

Should also be noted that Black Widow's domestic drop was the same as F9s 2nd weekend drop and that movie wasn't available via streaming. This might just be the reality of the situation for the time being.

But also that F9 received poor reviews and word to mouth and that the 4th of July weekend is always a slow weekend for movie-going. It was up 15% the following week.

 

[psylockolussus]

Is this movie going to be released in China?

 

[Comicbookguy339]

But also that F9 received poor reviews and word to mouth and that the 4th of July weekend is always a slow weekend for movie-going. It was up 15% the following week.

If we go by quality then yeah, BW should be doing better than F9. Outside of action scenes that movie was pure garbage (even by F&F's standards).

 

[Filmfreak]

Point is Black Widow shouldn't have dropped so much even with taking into account the simultaneous release in streaming. F9 had more things against it in the second weekend.