Box Office Thread

[Filmfreak]

And here are long range forecasts by BoxofficePro and actual numbers of some recent MCU films (and the first Captain Marvel).

As you can see, BoxOfficePro has been pretty accurate with their forecasts so far.

Well, it depends. They originally gave The Flash a 115-140 million opening and it flopped with 55. Equally they predicted 55-85 million for Barbie and it made twice as much as the higher end with 162. Next few weeks until release will show a more accurate picture. It's true though that at the moment it doesn't look good for the film.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Well, it depends. They originally gave The Flash a 115-140 million opening and it flopped with 55. Equally they predicted 55-85 million for Barbie and it made twice as much as the higher end with 162. Next few weeks until release will show a more accurate picture. It's true though that at the moment it doesn't look good for the film.

Oh yeah, they've been wrong before with other movies but with Marvel they have a solid track record. By now they probably have a pretty good understanding of how early presales translate to actual boxoffice for MCU flicks.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Oof.

 

[psylockolussus]

I hate to say this early, but Captain Marvel 3 is pretty much mission: impossible if this one doesn't even hit $200 million in North America. Let me remain positive as the only other big movie coming out in November is the Hunger Games Origins which is a prequel.

Hmm I don't know. I still think The Marvels isn't a good title to begin with.

 

[psylockolussus]

I hate to say this early, but Captain Marvel 3 is pretty much mission: impossible if this one doesn't even hit $200 million in North America. Let me remain positive as the only other big movie coming out in November is the Hunger Games Origins which is a prequel.

Hmm I don't know. I still think The Marvels isn't a good title to begin with.

I just found out right now that the film is called Captain Marvel 2 in China.... why they didn't do that for the rest of the world? This makes it more evident that The Marvels isn't a good title. Also watching videos from Marvel's official YouTube channel, it does look like a Captain Marvel 2 film... like I hope they don't get eXperimental with movie titles again.

 

[JannTosh]

I was shocked how well people thought it was gonna do. I always thought 99% of the interest with Captain Marvel was it being teased at the end of Infinity War and being seen as an appetizer to Endgame, and that really propelled it to another level.

Is there any chance that Secret Wars might be the end of the shared universe? X-Men and Spider-Man will always make $$$ but we are definitely looking at the recession of Marvel as a dominant force.

 

[psylockolussus]

Its going to be quite disappointing when this pops up in the list of 2023's biggest flops/disappointments at the boX office. Ant-Man 3 got a lot of bad press. I don't think Marvel Studios can afford another.

I could live without a Captain Marvel 3. But when Thor got a Thor 4, and the rest got a 3rd solo outing (Steve, Iron Man, Ant-Man). A Captain Marvel 3 not happening is a not good look, especially there's only few female characters in the MCU that a got solo film. The other one was a one and done (Black Widow).

 

[HammerDown]

Oof.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Deadline and Hollywood Reporter both predicting a 70-80M opening weekend right now.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Despite being an anti-union ass, he's a pretty reliable box office tracker.
I honestly don't know what's going on with this movie. Studios are expecting 70-80M while trackers are saying that it'll do just around 60M. Somebody is missing something here. I personally hope that walk-ups (I think women are less likely to pre-order tickets) will save it from being an absolute disaster but even 80M would be a bad OW.

 

[psylockolussus]

Does Disney even have marketing materials featuring the actors doing interviews/content for third party companies to promote this? Surely they could have predicted the actors strike was coming and could have filmed promotional interviews/videos in advance?

From the two theater chains, I always go to, they already have a big display for this. I'm just not sure if there is a big demand for this film until I see the lines in the opening week. Barbie and The Eras Tour had a lot of people lined up (even in the 2nd weekend).

 

[Zyraquis]

domestic is pretty much done. It will be around $200m at best. Those BO trackers are quite accurate on previews and OW and the leg is pretty consistent for most MCU films. i dont see any upside surprise.

I am more curious though how much int‘l audience it has lost since the first film. I’m not optimistic in that too unfortunately. Most like it will be under Black Adam WW.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

domestic is pretty much done. It will be around $200m at best. Those BO trackers are quite accurate on previews and OW and the leg is pretty consistent for most MCU films. i dont see any upside surprise.

I am more curious though how much int‘l audience it has lost since the first film. I’m not optimistic in that too unfortunately. Most like it will be under Black Adam WW.

It's not looking good



But I still don't see this making less than 400M WW.

 

[psylockolussus]

Captain Marvel 3 is pretty much gone, if it performs as low as those numbers. Damn, what a shame. I really want to see Moonstone as a lead villain in a Captain Marvel movie.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I think The Marvels is clearly paying for the sins of Thor Love & Thunder, Ant-Man Quantumania and many of the Disney+ shows. If Cap 4 flops as well then that only strengthens my theory.

 

[psylockolussus]

I don't mind if Captain America 4 and Thunderbolts flop (though that wouldn't help Blade and 4). But I don't want to be Captain Marvel to be 2 solo films and done.

Captain Marvel - 2
Wonder Woman - 2
Black Widow - 1
Harley Quinn - 1
Birds of Prey - 1
Elektra - 1
Catwoman - 1
Supergirl - 1

This probably our only chance to see a superheroine to headline 3 films.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I don't mind if Captain America 4 and Thunderbolts flop (though that wouldn't help Blade and 4). But I don't want to be Captain Marvel to be 2 solo films and done.

Captain Marvel - 2
Wonder Woman - 2
Black Widow - 1
Harley Quinn - 1
Birds of Prey - 1
Elektra - 1
Catwoman - 1
Supergirl - 1

This probably our only chance to see a superheroine to headline 3 films.

Pretty depressing when you lay it out like that.

 

[psylockolussus]

It is not going to encourage Disney to make a solo film Scarlet Witch, She-Hulk and Ms. Marvel down the road.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Maybe we'll get some solo X-women movies in 10 years or so.

 

[Filmfreak]

I think The Marvels is clearly paying for the sins of Thor Love & Thunder, Ant-Man Quantumania and many of the Disney+ shows. If Cap 4 flops as well then that only strengthens my theory.

I don't think there's any real question of "if" for Brave New World. I'm interested in it but it would take a miracle for that film to be profitable.

 

[OrbOfConfusion]

On an unrelated note, it's interesting how some- not all- on Twitter are banking on the actor's strike being over within the next week or so in order to allow the actors to promote the film. To which I have to ask: how big of a box office boost could you really expect from last minute promotions from the actors? There are plenty of clips and promotional videos out there already. A red carpet probably won't move the needle that much. Maybe a little, but I don't see it being the make or break factor.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I don't think there's any real question of "if" for Brave New World. I'm interested in it but it would take a miracle for that film to be profitable.

We haven't seen a single second of footage from the film so I think it's too early to completely dismiss it.

 

[Filmfreak]

We haven't seen a single second of footage from the film so I think it's too early to completely dismiss it.

It's not about the quality of the film, it's about the lack of hype for the character. If people don't care to see the likes of Captain Marvel or even Ant-Man why would the care to see Sam Wilson just because he's called Captain America this time? Also it was made by the team behind Falcon & the Winter Soldier which featured the exact same character and people didn't really like that show (I did). And this whole think with the Hulk characters that they're using to attract audience is not going to work. The Incredible Hulk had been the only MCU box office bomb before Phase 4 happened.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

It's not about the quality of the film, it's about the lack of hype for the character. If people don't care to see the likes of Captain Marvel or even Ant-Man why would the care to see Sam Wilson just because he's called Captain America this time? Also it was made by the team behind Falcon & the Winter Soldier which featured the exact same character and people didn't really like that show (I did). And this whole think with the Hulk characters that they're using to attract audience is not going to work. The Incredible Hulk had been the only MCU box office bomb before Phase 4 happened.

You're probably right but I think a really great trailer can get people excited.

 

[psylockolussus]

Maybe we'll get some solo X-women movies in 10 years or so.

I'd rather see them work solely on X-Men team movies. Solo mutant movies would make the wait longer for X-Men sequels. Also not every X-Men isn't going to get a solo movie, so to make it fair for every X-Men, just develop them in the team movies.