Box Office Thread

[HammerDown]

The box office predictions at Box Office Pro continue to drop. At this point I expect The Flash kind of numbers.

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At this rate there’s no way this opens above 60 and that total is abysmal.

 

[Iceman]

The box office predictions at Box Office Pro continue to drop. At this point I expect The Flash kind of numbers.

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Oh no, I was expecting the forecasts to go up not down, but then I haven't seen a whole lot of marketing or any GA people I know mention the film.

This could start an outright disaster for the MCU if much of the GA are abandoning ship.

 

[psylockolussus]

For its 2nd weekend, its opening against Hunger Games, Trolls and Thanksgiving. Not encouraging that it would have a soft 2nd weekend drop.

Marvel Studios should now open this in a Wednesday for those eXtra two days, and they could it use an eXcuse for a low opening weekend (fri to sun) gross.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Black Adam had 7.6M in previews and manged to make 67M opening weekend so I can actually see The Marvels reaching 70M.

 

[psylockolussus]

The boX office performance of this is intriguing.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I'm not a boxoffice tracker so maybe I just don't understand but if the movie is expected to have similar Thursday previews to Black Adam then why is The Marvels expected to do so much worse than Black Adam (which got negative reviews)?

Edit: I guess they're looking at the opening weekend internal multipliers of other recent MCU movies but most of those movies were still highly anticipated and as a result were more frontloaded. So for comparison I think it makes more sense to look at the internal multipliers of recent DCEU films like Black Adam, Shazam 2 or Blue Beetle which are noticeably higher.

 

[OrbOfConfusion]

One would think that The Marvels's chances would have gone up with Dune Part II moving. Then again, the film has competition not far with Hunger Games, not to mention Five Nights at Freddy's and the Taylor Swift concert movie doing well.

At the very least, Oppenheimer's return to theaters is limited to a few places and probably for a short window. Though if given the choice, I'd happily watch that again over anything else coming in the next week or so.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I'm not even thinking about total gross yet. I'm just puzzled by the super-low (45M) domestic opening weekend predictions off of a 7.8M Thursday preview.

 

[psylockolussus]

Tragic. I'm baffled why this would open that low...

The movie looks good imo.

 

[Filmfreak]

Tragic. I'm baffled why this would open that low...

The movie looks good imo.

The trailers do look good and I too am surprised that it's apparently opening that low. But I'm not shocked. I think people vastly overestimated how much audience really cared for the character based on an exceptional box office that was partially a product of good timing for more than one reasons. Also this year (although signs existed before) has proven that the MCU brand has lost big part of its appeal to the general audience, but also generic blockbusters too. It has been an extremely unpredictable year so far, so I expect almost everything now.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

The trailers do look good and I too am surprised that it's apparently opening that low. But I'm not shocked. I think people vastly overestimated how much audience really cared for the character based on an exceptional box office that was partially a product of good timing for more than one reasons. Also this year (although signs existed before) has proven that the MCU brand has lost big part of its appeal to the general audience, but also generic blockbusters too. It has been an extremely unpredictable year so far, so I expect almost everything now.

As a fan of Captain Marvel and Ms. Marvel I too think the trailers make the movie look like a fun romp but I can see why it's not generating the excitement that it should.

The villain is completely unknown (I checked, the character appeared in a total of 3 issues in the early 90s) and visually she doesn't look particularly interesting. On top of that it's your typical "the villain wants revenge" plot. Fans get just as excited about seeing their favourite villains as they do about seeing their favourite heroes. Ultron, Hela, Thanos and Kang (heck, even Gorr) all generated considerable buzz among fans before the movies came out. But they're not getting that here.

In hindsight I think it's a shame Ronan was killed off in the first Guardians flick because Lee Pace is a great actor and could play that character really well (just see his performance in Foundation) if he was provided with good material. We get a small hint of what Pace could have done with the character in this brief scene.




So I think the trailers ultimately fail to sell a conflict that fans could get invested in.

 

[Filmfreak]

As a fan of Captain Marvel and Ms. Marvel I too think the trailers make the movie look like a fun romp but I can see why it's not generating the excitement that it should.

The villain is completely unknown (I checked, the character appeared in a total of 3 issues in the early 90s) and visually she doesn't look particularly interesting. On top of that it's your typical "the villain wants revenge" plot. Fans get just as excited about seeing their favourite villains as they do about seeing their favourite heroes. Ultron, Hela, Thanos and Kang (heck, even Gorr) all generated considerable buzz among fans before the movies came out. But they're not getting that here.

In hindsight I think it's a shame Ronan was killed off in the first Guardians flick because Lee Pace is a great actor and could play that character really well (just see his performance in Foundation) if he was provided with good material. We get a small hint of what Pace could have done with the character in this brief scene.




So I think the trailers ultimately fail to sell a conflict that fans could get invested in.

I don't know. General audience isn't really that aware of characters outside some of the really really famous ones that had appeared in previous movies. I'm not a hardcore fan, though there was a time where I was a big Marvel fan for years and to tell you the truth I didn't know Hela at all and was barely familiar with Ronan and even Kang. You should bet that the vast majority of the audience had no idea who any of the bad guys were.

And I don't think that you'd have such a humongous drop in box office just because the story and villain feel a bit generic. There are definitely multiple reasons that led to that.

As for Ronan, yeah Lee Pace is a great actor and I really like the first Guardians film, but his Ronan was a caricature. It wasn't just the writing that didn't do him any favours, the acting was extremely mediocre at best and the make-up was plain bad.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I don't know. General audience isn't really that aware of characters outside some of the really really famous ones that had appeared in previous movies. I'm not a hardcore fan, though there was a time where I was a big Marvel fan for years and to tell you the truth I didn't know Hela at all and was barely familiar with Ronan and even Kang. You should bet that the vast majority of the audience had no idea who any of the bad guys were.

And I don't think that you'd have such a humongous drop in box office just because the story and villain feel a bit generic. There are definitely multiple reasons that led to that.

As for Ronan, yeah Lee Pace is a great actor and I really like the first Guardians film, but his Ronan was a caricature. It wasn't just the writing that didn't do him any favours, the acting was extremely mediocre at best and the make-up was plain bad.

Oh yeah, I'm not even suggesting that the massive drop-off can be attributed to the villain problem alone.

As for Lee Pace's acting in GotG, he did what he was directed to do.

 

[Filmfreak]

Oh yeah, I'm not even suggesting that the massive drop-off can be attributed to the villain problem alone.

As for Lee Pace's acting in GotG, he did what he was directed to do.

Sure, I'm not blaming him. I know he has the chops.

 

[HammerDown]

If there ever was a perfect gif to describe these box office predictions…

 

[HammerDown]

55M opening weekend! A certified bomb.

“45M”!? No comment.

Top 3 MCU worst OW:

1. Incredible Hulk - 55M
2. Ant-Man - 57M
3. Captain America: TFA - 65M

 

[Filmfreak]

It could end up making The Flash numbers overall. If the interest is as low as the presales indicate and if the movie is a mess like it's heavily hinted, I can see it ending up around 250-300 million worldwide. It's crazy.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

It could end up making The Flash numbers overall. If the interest is as low as the presales indicate and if the movie is a mess like it's heavily hinted, I can see it ending up around 250-300 million worldwide. It's crazy.

There's zero way to spin this if it goes that low. A total bomb and second lowest or the lowest grossing MCU film. I hate this. I'm afraid we'll never see Kamala on screen again.

 

[psylockolussus]

My predictions
North America: 65 million opening weekend + 2.5 multiplier = 162.5 million at the end of its run
Worldwide: more than 500 million. After Barbenheimer, I don't think there's any other film that has crossed 500 million. China's numbers should help.

 

[Zyraquis]

I wont bet on China for any MCU release these days. Maybe $20m-30m. The OS markets that have presale seems to point to figures as weak, if not weaker, than DOM.

 

[psylockolussus]

Guardians 3 earned 86 million in China. The Meg 2 over 100 million. The Flash, around 25 million. So The Marvels should at least clear 50 million?

That being said - Barbie, Elemental and Indiana Jones didn't do much in China.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Guardians 3 earned 86 million in China. The Meg 2 over 100 million. The Flash, around 25 million. So The Marvels should at least clear 50 million?

That being said - Barbie, Elemental and Indiana Jones didn't do much in China.

I think 50M from China is very optimistic. Pre-sales in South Korea, for example, are dreadful right now (half of Guardians 3).

 

[psylockolussus]

Well yes. I'm trying to be optimistic with the boX office of this because to go from 1.1 billion to less than 500 million is tragic.

Its really going to kill a lot of MCU projects moving forward.

 

[Zant]

If there ever was a perfect gif to describe these box office predictions…

Lol its all fun and games until..Thor 5, Doctor Strange 3 and Cap 4 gets similar pre release box office tracking. Could be the new normal for some MCU films now

 

[HammerDown]

Lol its all fun and games until..Thor 5, Doctor Strange 3 and Cap 4 gets similar pre release box office tracking. Could be the new normal for some MCU films now

That’s a long ways off. Ultimately it will depend on the generated interested and overall quality of those films.