Discussion: Relations with Russia

DA_Champion said:
1) Do you really believe that Hamas is the main reason for the offensive? IMO the main reason is they want the land (and the coast and its natural gas wealth), and Hamas is the excuse.

Israel has been ethnically cleansing Palestinians since 1948.

2) I'm aware of many of the issues with large Russian media. I do see some critiques of Putin, there's a lot of criticism of him on Telegram, for example of many poor military decisions in 2022/2023, some of which seeps through to YouTube, Twitter, etc. So it's kind of like American media in that case, with a controlled core and more diversity on the outskirts, but with a language barrier, obviously.

For analysis of the failings of American media, I recommend Noam Chomsky.

The West has many of the same issues you bring up. Julian Assange is in prison. A hundred journalists in Palestine have been murdered. A Boeing whistleblower was recently assassinated. And nobody invades more countries than us.

You should be skeptical of any source I link to or really any source period. But 85% of the world's population lives in non-White / non-Western countries, so we should all do more to better consider their points of views.
Click to expand...
Alot of non-western/non-white media are mouth pieces for dictatorships namely China and Russia and these governments are just as racist and imperialist as Western countries in the past.

If they respected Africans, Latinos and SE Asians as equals they wouldn't be resorting to imperialism.
 
Whatever it takes to slow Putin down.
 
blueharvest said:
Click to expand...


That's a short term solution. In the long term, an underlying issue is that NATO's European members spend comparatively little on their militaries. For example Germany spends 1.4%, France spends 1.9%, Italy spends 1.7%, UK spends 2.3%. All of these countries, the four richest in the EU, are in violation of the NATO charter which requires 3% spending on defense.

Europe has neither the resources nor the will to effect significant change on its own. And its economy is growing weaker. So decisions will ultimately remain up to Washington.

Tldr; money talks, and Europe spends very little on defense.
 
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It's difficult to see this war ending soon.

The Eastern parts of Ukraine are historically Russian. The people there speak Russian, are ethnically Russian, are Orthodox Christians and the lands have been part of Russia for most of their histories. The people there have consistently voted for better relations with Russia in past Ukrainian elections. So there shouldn't be an issue absorbing them into Russia and thus far there has not been. I expect all of these territories to be absorbed within a year or so.

Western Ukraine, which Adolph Hitler warmly referred to as "Galicia", has a population which prides itself on being genetically superior to the Asiatic slavs, doesn't speak Russian as a mother tongue, has Stepan Bandera as its national hero, has a people that has voted for better relations with the West, wants to be part of the EU and NATO. It is likely that Russia doesn't even want to occupy those lands.

So what happens after the war? Some think Russia will establish a demilitarized buffer zone / cordon sanitaire West of the Denipr River, others that Hungary, Romania, and Poland will take over their historic territories in West Ukraine, leaving Galicia as an irrelevant rump state without sea access.

I think it's likely West Ukraine ends in a permanent localized hot proxy war status. Ukrainian refugees that went to Europe will be rounded up and sent to fight (and die), along with mercenaries, for years to come. Nothing will remain. Zelensky might lead an Ukrainian government in exile from Brussels.
 
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DA_Champion said:
It's difficult to see this war ending soon.

The Eastern parts of Ukraine are historically Russian. The people there speak Russian, are ethnically Russian, are Orthodox Christians and the lands have been part of Russia for most of their histories. The people there have consistently voted for better relations with Russia in past Ukrainian elections. So there shouldn't be an issue absorbing them into Russia and thus far there has not been. I expect all of these territories to be absorbed within a year or so.

Western Ukraine, which Adolph Hitler warmly referred to as "Galicia", has a population which prides itself on being genetically superior to the Asiatic slavs, doesn't speak Russian as a mother tongue, has Stepan Bandera as its national hero, has a people that has voted for better relations with the West, wants to be part of the EU and NATO. It is likely that Russia doesn't even want to occupy those lands.

So what happens after the war? Some think Russia will establish a demilitarized buffer zone / cordon sanitaire West of the Denipr River, others that Hungary, Romania, and Poland will take over their historic territories in West Ukraine, leaving Galicia as an irrelevant rump state without sea access.

I think it's likely West Ukraine ends in a permanent localized hot proxy war status. Ukrainian refugees that went to Europe will be rounded up and sent to fight (and die), along with mercenaries, for years to come. Nothing will remain. Zelensky might lead an Ukrainian government in exile from Brussels.
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I'm going to say that the mass killings by Russia may have soured any feelings of wanting to be close to russia in those areas.
 
www.zona-militar.com

The USA has authorized Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands to transfer 65 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Ukraine

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives evaluated a series of notifications during the month of February proposing the transfer
www.zona-militar.com www.zona-militar.com

kyivindependent.com

UK Military Intelligence: Ukrainian strikes overload Russian air defense, causing 'friendly fire'

Ukrainian recent attacks increased pressure on Russian air defense systems, leading to Russia likely shooting down its own planes, the U.K. Military Intelligence's report said on April 6.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
 
blueharvest said:
www.zona-militar.com

The USA has authorized Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands to transfer 65 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Ukraine

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives evaluated a series of notifications during the month of February proposing the transfer
www.zona-militar.com www.zona-militar.com
Click to expand...

A handful of 50 year-old fighter aircraft flown by barely trained Ukrainian pilots will not make a difference. All this does is clear old stocks.

If NATO wants to help, they'll have experienced, NATO-trained pilots fly in F22s and F35s.
 
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blueharvest said:
www.zona-militar.com

The USA has authorized Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands to transfer 65 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Ukraine

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives evaluated a series of notifications during the month of February proposing the transfer
www.zona-militar.com www.zona-militar.com

kyivindependent.com

UK Military Intelligence: Ukrainian strikes overload Russian air defense, causing 'friendly fire'

Ukrainian recent attacks increased pressure on Russian air defense systems, leading to Russia likely shooting down its own planes, the U.K. Military Intelligence's report said on April 6.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
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While this isn't a silver bullet, it's a good tool in Ukraine's arsenal. There are, of course, challenges, but it provides multiple functions. Troop cover, anti missile capability, offensive strikes, etc.

Getting Ukrainian pilots up to speed and maintenance won't be a simple task, but that has been worked on for many months and some are basically ready to fly as we speak.
 
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DA_Champion said:
A handful of 50 year-old fighter aircraft flown by barely trained Ukrainian pilots will not make a difference. All this does is clear old stocks.

If NATO wants to help, they'll have experienced, NATO-trained pilots fly in F22s and F35s.
Click to expand...

I mean, I'm sure various members of the Ukranian Air Force have been taking "vacations" in those countries. Considering the Ukranians are more likely to encounter planes of similar ages, not entirely sure it is worthless. And considering the number of Su-35s they have already taken out, not entirely sure how worried they should be of the more modern stuff either.
 
blueharvest said:
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The only thing surprising is how long it took.
The GOP seeing Russia as the ultimate evil was always comical, since the way Russia does things...is exactly how Republicans want it.
The rich get everything, the poor shut up and work, the gays have little to say, POC are not well liked, Religion is pushed by the state,free speech only if its to praise Putin...Russia is the GOPs dream.
This is how they want America to be.
A truly free land, they dont want.

So it was always a bit weird how Conservatives were so hard on Russia for so long.
 
Sithborg said:
I mean, I'm sure various members of the Ukranian Air Force have been taking "vacations" in those countries. Considering the Ukranians are more likely to encounter planes of similar ages, not entirely sure it is worthless. And considering the number of Su-35s they have already taken out, not entirely sure how worried they should be of the more modern stuff either.
Click to expand...
It's public knowledge that some Ukrainian AF pilots have been training on F16s in Western countries, but if you follow the timeline, it's at most about 1 year of training.

It is also true that the Russian operation is including older planes, but in that same context, for a long time the Russians were holding back their air force for a reason -- they were waiting for Ukraine's air defense to be depleted and taken out. That means both being drained of missile batteries and the launchers being largely destroyed. There was one week where they destroyed three patriots batteries. Now they can fly with relative impunity, whereas Russian air defense is actually growing stronger.

At this point Ukraine is losing the war. If NATO wants to stop that, they'll have to intervene directly. The idea that NATO can sit back in comfort and win great geopolitical prizes by dumping ancient weapons stocks onto an army of unwilling conscripts is delusional.

Here's Edward Luttwack, one of NATO's most respected strategists, making the same point:

unherd.com

It's time to send Nato troops to Ukraine

unherd.com unherd.com
 


I agree with Zelensky that without the 60 billion, Ukraine will lose.

But to win, it will need vastly, vastly more. I think that Luttwack is correct, the requirement is a few hundred thousand NATO troops.
 
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