General Election 2020: Biden vs Trump

[DarthSkywalker]

Now I got told I'm a Socialist!

Finally, comrade.

 

[Lily Adler]

I'm sorry the belief of a government that helps protect us and our freedom by giving us all equal opportunities and a social safety net is too ingrained in me.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You nonconforming hussy.

Wow, five seconds as a Libertarian, and you found your inner sexist real quick Loca.

 

[Lily Adler]

Wow, five seconds as a Libertarian, and you found your inner sexist real quick Loca.

Social Libertarian. Which makes sense since I WAS a Libertarian.

 

[Schlosser85]

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Social Libertarian. Which makes sense since I WAS a Libertarian.

I have watched enough Sam Seder to know that all prefixes to Libertarian mean nothing!

 

[DKDetective]

And another says I'm a social Libertarian?

According to Political Compass, I'm a far left libertarian, an extremist version of Bernie Sanders. On the Pew Research political typography quiz, I am also a Solid Liberal. 

 

[DarthSkywalker]

According to Political Compass, I'm a far left libertarian, an extremist version of Bernie Sanders.

Time to change that avatar DK...

 

[DKDetective]

Time to change that avatar DK...

This might be a bit more accurate:

 

[Lily Adler]

I have watched enough Sam Seder to know that all prefixes to Libertarian mean nothing!

Stop it you're scaring me.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Stop it you're scaring me.

We are all good as long as no one comes back with the result, Classical Liberal.

 

[Detective Conan]

OH COME ON WHITE PEOPLE! EVEN AFTER ALL THIS!

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

57% of whites voted Trump in 2016 and 54% of whites voted Republican in 2018. It would at least be a decline; whites have been voting Republican nationally in every presidential election after ‘64.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

Gotta say, not really surprised.

 

[Lily Adler]

Gotta say, not really surprised.

View attachment 36342

Social Libertarian. Social Libertarian. Social Libertarian.

 

[DKDetective]

Gotta say, not really surprised.

View attachment 36342

Social Libertarian. Social Libertarian. Social Libertarian.

That chart looks very familiar.

 

[Sithborg]

Something purely MI related...

GOPer who downplayed ties to DeVos hires her niece after $1M infusion

Even if Trump is voted out, MI is not going to escape the ****ing DeVos's...

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

absolute majority (>50%) needed to win electoral college, else the U.S. House elects the president instead with each state getting one vote.

2020 electoral college trackers:
The Economist: D349, R190 (D 65%, R 35%)
Financial Times: D308, R128, t102 (D 57%, R 24%, t 19%)
Princeton Election Consortium: D358, R180 (D 67%, R 33%)
JHK Forecast: D348, R190 (D 65%, R 35%)
Inside Elections: D319, R187, t32 (D 59%, R 35%, t 6%)
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D268, R204, t66 (D 50%, R 38%, t 12%)
270towin.com: D278, R169, t91 (D 52%, R 31%, t 17%)
ElectoralVote.com: D388, R150 (D 72%, R 28%)
(D = Democratic ticket electoral votes, R = Republican ticket electoral votes, t = tossup electoral votes)

Any others I should include?

NBC News: D334, R125, t79 (D 62%, R 23%, t 15%)

 

[InCali]

NBC News: D334, R125, t79 (D 62%, R 23%, t 15%)

That's a very optimistic looking map.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[InCali]

Add Colorado as a probable pickup in the Senate for Dems.

 

[samsnee]

I still don’t think Texas is a toss-up. Republicans there always vote for their candidate at the very end.

 

[Lily Adler]

I still don’t think Texas is a toss-up. Republicans there always vote for their candidate at the very end.

Orange over the brown lover.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Beto O'Rourke got within a few points of winning Texas - out performing the opinion polls - a little over a year before the mass protests, really bad economy, and pandemic times.

Else I would feel more skeptical as well.

Keep in mind Trump did worse in Texas in 2016 (+9) than Cruz did in 2012 (+16) as well. Cruz has/had more of a cushion than Trump does!

Cruz 56.5% in 2012, 50.9% in 2018 (5.6 point decline)
Trump 52.1% in 2016, x in 2020 (y point decline)

Trump probably can't withstand a 5.6 point decline. 52.1% - 5.6% = 46.5%

Even if you average that number (46.5%) with Cruz's 2018 number (50.9%) it's still dicey: 48.7%

 

[Schlosser85]

Beto getting as close as he did to Ted Cruz in Texas of all places is why IMO he should have taken a second stab at a Senate seat instead of jumping the gun (IMO) and trying already to run for President.

He seemed fumbling and out of his depth and not ready for the big leagues on the presidential candidate debate stage. He only really seemed to finally find his groove and something he really felt passionately about when he (rightly) came out against assault weapons after the shooting in El Paso. Unfortunately, by doing so, he probably also sank any viable hopes he still had of running again for a Texas seat.