BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[InCali]

I think it will be $100M+ over the 4 days

I "think" it could do about that in 3. We'll know soon enough.

 

[TheVileOne]

I saw Top Gun for a third time on Monday in ScreenX, and the audience seemed to respond very well. I think it's going to have a big opening. But that's why it's good Doctor Strange came out in early May. It got a head start and already made most of its money.

This is a good movie to see on the big screen too. It's very visually immersive.

Yet another reason why a lot of pandemic decisions were made hastily and were poor decision making.

People still want cinematic theatrical experiences if it's something they think is worth seeing.

 

[InCali]

I saw Top Gun for a third time on Monday in ScreenX, and the audience seemed to respond very well. I think it's going to have a big opening. But that's why it's good Doctor Strange came out in early May. It got a head start and already made most of its money.

This is a good movie to see on the big screen too. It's very visually immersive.

Yet another reason why a lot of pandemic decisions were made hastily and were poor decision making.

People still want cinematic theatrical experiences if it's something they think is worth seeing.

Yeah....DS got a good spot OW and a nice window without a lot of headwinds.

 

[InCali]

I saw Top Gun for a third time on Monday in ScreenX, and the audience seemed to respond very well. I think it's going to have a big opening. But that's why it's good Doctor Strange came out in early May. It got a head start and already made most of its money.

This is a good movie to see on the big screen too. It's very visually immersive.

Yet another reason why a lot of pandemic decisions were made hastily and were poor decision making.

People still want cinematic theatrical experiences if it's something they think is worth seeing.

How do you get to do that?!?!?!? I have to say I'm kinda jealous.

 

[TheVileOne]

How do you get to do that?!?!?!? I have to say I'm kinda jealous.

I'm a reporter and critic. First time was at CinemaCon, second time was the critics screening. Third time was more of a stroke of luck as a friend/colleague of mine got invited to the ScreenX early screening and invited me to go as part of his group.

I don't take it lightly. It was an incredible privilege to get the opportunity to see it three times ahead of its wide release.

ScreenX is a bit gimmicky, but it was a nice theatre, and this is a good movie to watch in the ScreenX format.

 

[Bayne]

Whatever happens MOM has had a very impressive theatrical run. I was also one of those that thought 1 billion was pretty much a lock and it would’ve been had it opened in the same markets that other billion dollar shows did so in terms of popularity, I put it right there with the others.

edit: It was a smart move to release the original avatar a few months before the new one opens. It occurs to me that it’s likely to overtake endgame in worldwide box office.

Until the next time they re-release Endgame, anyway.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Avatar already reclaimed the worldwide record from Endgame last year with the China re-release.

 

[Prison Mike]

I'm a reporter and critic. First time was at CinemaCon, second time was the critics screening. Third time was more of a stroke of luck as a friend/colleague of mine got invited to the ScreenX early screening and invited me to go as part of his group.

I don't take it lightly. It was an incredible privilege to get the opportunity to see it three times ahead of its wide release.

ScreenX is a bit gimmicky, but it was a nice theatre, and this is a good movie to watch in the ScreenX format.

 

[InCali]

I'm a reporter and critic. First time was at CinemaCon, second time was the critics screening. Third time was more of a stroke of luck as a friend/colleague of mine got invited to the ScreenX early screening and invited me to go as part of his group.

I don't take it lightly. It was an incredible privilege to get the opportunity to see it three times ahead of its wide release.

ScreenX is a bit gimmicky, but it was a nice theatre, and this is a good movie to watch in the ScreenX format.

that's pretty cool. I remember the first time I saw IMAX a LOOOOOONG time ago. It was in a domed theater with a camera that I can't even describe as a projector.

Until the next time they re-release Endgame, anyway.

The thought DID occur to me.

Avatar already reclaimed the worldwide record from Endgame last year with the China re-release.

Didn't know that.

 

[Filmfreak]

I think with another re-release before the sequel, Avatar will be too far away for Endgame to surpass it again.

 

[AvengerPA]

I am going to predict $16 million for 3 days, and $20 million for the four days of the weekend. It should be around $370-375 million then.

 

[InCali]

I am going to predict $16 million for 3 days, and $20 million for the four days of the weekend. It should be around $370-375 million then.

Yeah. That's about where I had it awhile back. It held pretty good this week and a $20M 4 day would put it at just about 375M. That would increase the chances of hitting 400M, but the way Maverick is performing could take a LOT of wind out of its sails. That's the danger for its BO numbers right now, but we all saw that coming. What a lot of people didn't see coming was just how big Maverick was going to be. People were saying maybe 90M 3 day and now BOP is saying 120-145M. That's a lot of eyes that might have otherwise been focused elsewhere.

 

[Batgirl0202]

Ya Maverick is gonna suck all the oxygen out of the room this weekend for sure. But if MoM can hold onto its legs and hit $20 million or so for the four-day, it's got a decent shot of hitting $400 million ahead of its D+ debut.

 

[JKKS085]

With Top Gun poised to make 100M+ 3-days and 130M+ 4-days I think MoM is coming under 20M 4-days. I’d like to see a final theater count to sharpen my predictions but I would say 18M/18.5M is the sweet spot. I would be surprised if it goes above that.
Then again I’ve been surprised by the weekdays holds this week and Memorial Day weekend is usually big across the board so maybe it does better.

 

[InCali]

With Top Gun poised to make 100M+ 3-days and 130M+ 4-days I think MoM is coming under 20M 4-days. I’d like to see a final theater count to sharpen my predictions but I would say 18M/18.5M is the sweet spot. I would be surprised if it goes above that.
Then again I’ve been surprised by the weekdays holds this week and Memorial Day weekend is usually big across the board so maybe it does better.

I think TG is likely to come in above that.....likely well above that. We'll see.

 

[JKKS085]

I think TG is likely to come in above that.....likely well above that. We'll see.

Yes. I should have specified that it now appears to be the floor for TG, certainly not the ceiling.

 

[InCali]

Yes. I should have specified that it now appears to be the floor for TG, certainly not the ceiling.

It might even be the basement.

 

[TheVileOne]

Box office update:

Box Office: ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Sees $19.3 Million In Thursday Previews – Deadline

1.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 4,735 theaters Fri $51M, 3-day $120M, 4-day $146.2M/Wk 1

2.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 3,805 theaters (-729), Fri $4.4M (-48%), 3 day $17M (-47%), 4 day $21.8M, total $376.1M, /Wk 4

Very good opening for Top Gun: Maverick, but if this holds, would not be bad for Doctor Strange at all, especially in its fourth weekend.

 

[InCali]

DS:MoM is tracking to hit over 21M for the 4 days which would put it it over 376M. Very good news for MoM fans and Marvel and VERY strong late legs. I wondered about that because, even though there is a pretty substantial group that didn't much like the movie, there is also a pretty solid group of people who really liked it and they still seem to be coming out even in the face of a very, very strong showing by TG. The last week and this weekend holds were surprising.

 

[TheVileOne]

DS:MoM is tracking to hit over 21M for the 4 days which would put it it over 376M. Very good news for MoM fans and Marvel and VERY strong late legs. I wondered about that because, even though there is a pretty substantial group that didn't much like the movie, there is also a pretty solid group of people who really liked it and they still seem to be coming out even in the face of a very, very strong showing by TG. The last week and this weekend holds were surprising.

Puts it well on track to cross $400 million as I predicted

Here's my thing, you can't discount a major moviegoing holiday weekend, also the weekday grosses, which were continually strong this week. Also, the third-weekend drop was also very good. The drop was actually lower than what was estimated.

I think the results show that the movie is getting fairly strong word of mouth and repeat viewings. I'm not saying the second-weekend drop was an anomaly but more symptomatic of how high the first weekend was. Also, schools letting out this time of year.

By next weekend this film will be well over $380 million. $400 million is easily within its grasp.

 

[InCali]

Puts it well on track to crossing $400 million as I predicted

Yep. That appears to be the case. It definitely exceeded expectations last week to the tune of about 6M....maybe more. It was falling behind CA:CW and then had really strong holds last week. Much stronger than CW and it basically allowed MoM to catch up with it. The trends didn't look good until then.

I wonder how things are looking OS. At this point, the splits have been about 43/57 domestic to OS. If that holds and MoM comes in at around 405M, that would mean a total BO of about 940M WW. In my estimation, that makes it a 1B movie WW. You have to factor in the fact that it wasn't allowed in some very large markets. It'll be interesting to see how TG does. I suspect some very strong legs for that one. TG didn't seem to have much affect on DS this weekend, but killed Downton Abbey. Age demographics I guess.....

 

[TheVileOne]

Yep. That appears to be the case. It definitely exceeded expectations last week to the tune of about 6M....maybe more. It was falling behind CA:CW and then had really strong holds last week. Much stronger than CW and it basically allowed MoM to catch up with it. The trends didn't look good until then.

I wonder how things are looking OS. At this point, the splits have been about 43/57 domestic to OS. If that holds and MoM comes in at around 405M, that would mean a total BO of about 940M WW. In my estimation, that makes it a 1B movie WW. You have to factor in the fact that it wasn't allowed in some very large markets. It'll be interesting to see how TG does. I suspect some very strong legs for that one. TG didn't seem to have much affect on DS this weekend, but killed Downton Abbey. Age demographics I guess.....

If this film can make about that much overseas without China, that's pretty spectacular when you consider all the factors.

 

[InCali]

If this film can make about that much overseas without China, that's pretty spectacular when you consider all the factors.

If it only made 900M without China, Russia, and parts of the middle east, that's basically a 1B movie. Ditto for TG, L&T, etc.

 

[TheVileOne]

If it only made 900M without China, Russia, and parts of the middle east, that's basically a 1B movie. Ditto for TG, L&T, etc.

Secondly, I want to express respect for Disney in this regard for not kowtowing to the prejudices of foreign governments and censoring the movie so it gets released in those territories. Now to be clear, I'm not saying Disney has a perfect or spotless track record in things like this, but I do think it's worthy of respect that they didn't alter the film just to make sure it gets released in China or the Middle-East, or countries where the government controls their media.

 

[AvengerPA]

After this weekend, MOM will be ahead of The Batman domestically.