I still say Microsoft will announce their new console....i´m the only one, but still.
Either they will announce and release this holiday season, or announce and release in 2012 like the next gen Nintendo console.
It might even happen, that Microsoft doesn´t announce anything, but if that happens, i say it will be announce and released in 2012.
As for Sony, this year the PS4 is out of the question.
In 2012...it might, but at this point i say it will be released in 2013 for sure.
Why do i say this?
Companies are always dependent on two factors to release a new generation, technology and their competitors.
With Nintendo releasing a new console next year, the other two will follow in a heartbeat, none will want to give 1+ year to them, even more when they kicked their butt this gen with a non-HD console.
Just look at how the NGP was announced in January, the month before the 3DS release....it was to try to take away Nintendo´s thunder.
As for Microsoft, my theory goes like this, there is only two reason for Microsoft not to announce a new console:
- There is only 6 month between the E3 and November
Is too little time to hype a new console, but, if we look at it, the Xbox 360 was announced in May 2005, seven months before release.
Besides, Microsoft has the policy of not to announce anything that is not ready to ship...and it would be a great surprise at E3.
- There are too many multiplatform games coming out this holiday season
Mass Effect 3, Skyrim, Battlefield 3, Call of Duty, Batman: AA...there are too many games going to the 360, which might cloud the new console
Reasons why i believe there is 75% of chances of a new console:
- 10 years of Halo, 10 years of the Xbox
This year is the anniversary of both, the hardware and it´s flagship title. It´s a given that something Halo related is going to be released in November (reason why Gears will be released in September), is not even conceivable that Microsoft will not celebrate the 10th anniversary.
But nothing has still been announced...
Rumors say that there is a Halo remake coming for the holidays (made by Saber Interactive, with new engine, more features and it will be Halo 1 and Halo 2 combined in one game), my call is that it will be a launch title, like Halo CE was, it will be to kill two birds with one stone, it will 2001 all over again.
- Forward Compatibility
In 2008 there was the rumor that Microsoft next console would have "forward compatibility" as a new feature, which they described as providing graphical and performance updates to Xbox 360 titles. It would range from increased draw distance, improved framerate, improved textures, or perhaps even new DLC. This would be the equivalent of upgrading your PC video card to allow for higher graphical settings.
It would give new life to all 360 games than just having the games be playable on the new console (backward compatibility).
That would make all games coming this year (Mass Effect 3, Skyrim...) to be "launch titles", as they would be playable in both the 360 and the Xbox 3, and much better in the new one.
Problem: the games would not be exclusives for the new console, not true launch titles, which would make many people not buying the new console and play the games on the 360
- Microsoft didn´t lied
When Microsoft said Kinect would give a new life to the 360, they didn´t lied.
The new Xbox will not have Kinect from the get go and the 360 will became Microsoft´s Wii.
They will cut the price and sell it as a casual/family/ motion controller console.
Problem: Not really a problem, but to have 2 consoles, one being a motion controller one, Microsoft needs to make the new one focused on the hardcore, which means a bigger and better first party, which is their main problem and the one that don´t show any interest in.
The game Playstation Move Heroes is the best example of how bad MS is on the first party angle, they would never be able to that, they have no big names outside Master Chief and Cortana.
- Microsoft has no games
Well, it´s true...
That was one of the reason many started to say Nintendo was going to release a new console, they had no games for this year, outside Skyward Sword and The Conduit 2...guess what, they were right.
The same goes to Microsoft where you only have two exclusives coming out, Gears 3 and Forza 4, both announced last year, and one of them being Kinect focused...or so it seems...and the other to be released in September, not November like the previous two.
Sure, the Halo game will be released in November like Halo CE was, but still...
Now, you can ask, what about Codename: Kingdoms?
How many times do you see Microsoft doing a Sony and announcing a game that is not ready?
IMO, was our first glimpse at a next gen game, that´s why they announced it, to tease...
Bottom line, if i´m right or wrong, we will know in June.....oh, and the big launch titles from MS will be Halo remake and Project Gotham 5, which is said to be in the making.
Crytek´s kingdoms will be for 2012.
