General Election 2020: Biden vs Trump

[DarthSkywalker]

What's that one thing people say to someone to help them look on the bright side?

"At least you have your health."

Try saying that now.

This is the US. That doesn't apply right now.

 

[Closerframe]

This is the US. That doesn't apply right now.

I don’t think it has applied to the US for awhile. We still don’t really have affordable healthcare.

 

[thangaran]

The Trumps are unfortunately now woven into the fabric of American politics and will be here to stay; plastic Jared, useless Ivanka, even more useless Don jr are all looked at as possible candidates for future elections

 

[Closerframe]

Things like this make me wonder if the Democrats take these elections seriously. I understand concerns with knocking on doors and exposing volunteers to COVID, but to suggest the “ground game” isn’t an important factor to consider is literally one of the reasons Clinton lost in 2016.

Biden was already almost everyone’s last pick during the primaries, he can’t play it safe and just go to states as a reaction to civil arrest or what’s in the news at the moment. There should be more deliberation with local democrats so Biden is constantly all over the news instead of just sitting it out until the debates.

Battleground polls show Trump up in Texas, Biden ahead in Iowa — POLITICO

 

[InCali]

I noted that yesterday, there were some ABC News polls that indicated a substantial shift towards Trump and even McSally in AZ (had her down by only 1). This is a prime example of how polling works. Occasionally, what we refer to as "random" samples are are skewed towards one end or the other of the spectrum and aren't representative of the population being sampled. In fact, if you "didn't" get these outliers, you should start to worry because they should pop up every now and again. Take my flipping a coin ten times as an example. If you do it enough times, you're going to get 1,2, or 3 heads (or tails) on occasion.

Anyway, the poll showing Trump up by 4 in Florida, by 1 in AZ, and Kelly up by 1 in AZ, is most likely an outlier and I expect to see most of the polls to continue to show what we've seen in the past. This race has been remarkably stable. I suspect this is because Trump is such a polarizing figure (ewwwww, I used Trump and figure in the same sentence.....); his voters wouldn't dream of not supporting him and a greater number could never vote for him.

 

[Tempus Fugit]

Let me add to the nightmare. If we manage to get Trump out of power this time we'll have to do this dance with him again in 2024 if he's not become a drooling invalid or died of poor health. We also have to worry about keeping his allies, cronies, and sons and daughter out of political office. His sons and daughter are young enough that we could be dealing with them for another 50 years.


This nightmare won't end in 2021 regardless of how thoroughly Biden beats Trump.

While you're certainly not wrong a strong enough rebuke to Trump will have a serious cooling effect on donors looking to maintain power in various governing bodies (House, Senate, W.H. etc.) that could easily be attached to the Trump name. I expect that those members of his family who aren't indicted when this is all over will become mainstays on Fox or OAN or have books ghost written for them or something like that simply because it's a path of less resistance to their paychecks. And let's face it here, pretty much all of his close family and advisors are really just in it for the money.

(As an example, Nixon's politics are still going strong today in the modern ultra right wing nonsense we see daily, but getting elected with the last name "Nixon" would be challenging to say the least!)

TLDR: The politics inspired by these scumbags will persist for decades to come, but I doubt that it will be under the Trump brand name. Just my suspicion.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

While you're certainly not wrong a strong enough rebuke to Trump will have a serious cooling effect on donors looking to maintain power in various governing bodies (House, Senate, W.H. etc.) that could easily be attached to the Trump name. I expect that those members of his family who aren't indicted when this is all over will become mainstays on Fox or OAN or have books ghost written for them or something like that simply because it's a path of less resistance to their paychecks. And let's face it here, pretty much all of his close family and advisors are really just in it for the money.

(As an example, Nixon's politics are still going strong today in the modern ultra right wing nonsense we see daily, but getting elected with the last name "Nixon" would be challenging to say the least!)

TLDR: The politics inspired by these scumbags will persist for decades to come, but I doubt that it will be under the Trump brand name. Just my suspicion.

Yup.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

And I predict as the percentage of white people continues to shrink they will become more openly racist, violent and radicalized in response in the United States and Europe to a lesser extent (Europe is less diverse for now and has for the time being a greater number of the higher educated). Trump (and others) are just a symptom of their freakout to the election of Barack Obama and the growing diversity in the United States.

Pew - On diversity, Europeans less positive than Americans (2016)

The reason the numbers are better in the U.S. is because a massive chunk of the country is already Hispanic and non-white (about 40%) so that group is saying that diversity is a great thing and that is accounted for in the numbers.

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

New FOX News state polls - likely voters
Pennsylvania Biden 51% Trump 44%
Ohio Biden 50% Trump 45%
Nevada Biden 52% Trump 41%

Ohio usually goes for the electoral college winner in modern times that’s why it’s important though technically possible to win without it.

FiveThirtyEight - National President: general election Polls





FOX News poll 4 years ago (September 11-14, 2016):
Clinton 41% (+1)
Trump 40%

Final FOX News poll (November 3-6 2016):
Clinton 48% (+4)
Trump 44%

Actual final election result (November 8, 2016):
Clinton 48% (+2)
Trump 46%

 

[InCali]

If things start leaning Biden's way in OH and NC, Trump "can't" win this election. I've never had OH in Biden's column and he has a very reasonable path without it. Adding them starts to smell like a blowout.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

It's hard to think of two groups more politically diametrically opposed than white men with a high school or less education and college educated black women.

 

[Sithborg]

If things start leaning Biden's way in OH and NC, Trump "can't" win this election. I've never had OH in Biden's column and he has a very reasonable path without it. Adding them starts to smell like a blowout.

If Iowa goes Blue, its going to be a blowout.

 

[DJ Kornphlake]

 

[InCali]

If Iowa goes Blue, its going to be a blowout.

Yeah. Iowa is yet another state that Trump easily carried and is having to work to keep it. Barring some major sea change, the tide does not favor him.

 

[InCali]

It's hard to think of two groups more politically diametrically opposed than white men with a high school or less education and college educated black women.

That IS funny. IMMA gonna go out on a limb and say Trump isn't supported by -.2% of black women (though it might be close).

Just an FYI, the margin of error is based on sampling factors and this actually can happen. Let's just say that he's not especially popular among black women.

 

[DJ Kornphlake]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The Independent (U.K.) - Bernie Sanders details Trump's efforts to steal election in urgent call to action

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[DJ Kornphlake]

More projection.

Also reporters should stop wasting their time asking him. We already know the answer, and it's not even up to him to accept the results.

 

[Marvolo]

More projection.

Also reporters should stop wasting their time asking him. We already know the answer, and it's not even up to him to accept the results.

Yeah those ****wit journalists are feeding his and his cult's belief that it is Trump's decision. It isn't.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

NY Daily News - Say it plainly: The president is a psychopath (Op-Ed)

“Get rid of the ballots” and “there won’t be a transfer,” said Donald Trump on Wednesday. This comment is a direct and dangerous expression of his anti-democratic intention. If unstopped, Trump may well destroy our 244-year-old democracy.

It is time to stop pulling punches. It is time to stop relying on political pundits to weigh in on Trump’s behavior, which they often soften and even normalize.

We are psychologists, and we are convinced Donald Trump is a psychopath. His malignant behavior over the past four years is growing and escalating right before our eyes. Trump’s psychopathy will change us forever if he is not stopped.

This is not hyperbole. This is not an expression of "a left-wing agenda.” This is a mental health opinion based on thousands of hours of documented behavior by this president.

He breaks norms, rules, and laws with impunity.

He lies, on average, 15 times a day.

He peddles fake conspiracy theories and irrational magical thinking.

He has been accused of sexually predatory behavior by at least 25 women.

He blames, scapegoats and gaslights as easily as he breathes.

He undermines the vital role of the free press because he abhors oversight and accountability.

His lies and anti-scientific advice and intentional downplaying of the coronavirus pandemic has led to countless American deaths.

He is callous and cold and unfeeling because he has no conscience.

He denigrates and humiliates anyone and everyone in his path.

He has no respect for military heroes or renowned experts.

He is racist and xenophobic.

He incites violence and culture wars.

He is obsessed with power and adoration.

He is a greedy opportunist.

He is corrupt to the core.

Now Trump is desperate to win re-election. He does not want to lose his hold on power for a number of reasons, most notably his insatiable thirst for attention. He is afraid of facing criminal charges once he leaves office. He is already essentially an unindicted co-conspirator in a campaign finance crime. He knows he is lawless and corrupt; that is why he lies about it so frequently and fervently.

 

[DKDetective]

More projection.

Also reporters should stop wasting their time asking him. We already know the answer, and it's not even up to him to accept the results.

Yeah those ****wit journalists are feeding his and his cult's belief that it is Trump's decision. It isn't.

I wouldn't be so sure about that gents, especially since we have seen how the rest of the Republican party and the executive branch are willing to blindly follow Trump's orders. There are lots of way Trump can use the coercive power of the federal government and challenges in court to screw with the results and try and subvert the election.